Dated studies, visible assumptions and the findings that survived the test.
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These reports preserve the evidence and conclusions at publication. They are research snapshots, not current player rankings.
Published
Seven seasons of preseason forecasts and four seasons of real waiver wires point to different draft strategies for kicker and defense—but the same final-roster point accounting as every other position. Defense is mostly a late, streamable slot; elite kicker retains some preseason signal.
Published
We lined up the 2026 consensus projections against where players are actually going in standard-scoring drafts, with last season’s touches and touchdowns underneath. Drafting running backs early is right, most of the RB picks in rounds four through eight are not, and quarterback is close to free.
Published
We formed a hypothesis about why passing keeps shrinking, checked it against league tracking data and ten seasons of our own play-by-play, and followed the consequences into fantasy scoring. The meta moved, and it is about to move again.
Published
We replayed projection-following lineups against real managers from 2022 through 2025, profiled the most disciplined drafters we could find, and measured a projection bias that shows up every single season.