Player sourcebook / TE · DAL
Jake Ferguson
Read as Markdown · JSON · Interactive board
- Season / week
- 2026 / 8
- Scoring
- HALF · 12 teams · 1 QB
- Source freshness
- partial
- Observed season stats
- Through week 8; complete through week 7. The latest week may be partial.
Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt.
- outcomes
- ready
Captured 2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00; complete through week 7 - season projection
- preseason prior
Captured Unknown - draft adp
- preseason context
Captured Unknown - advanced stats
- coverage not verified
Captured Unknown
Model version and retrieval details
Model generated: 2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00. Model generation time does not establish source freshness.
Model version: trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1
Data version: board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8
Retrieved 2026-11-01T01:40:28.697869+00:00. This is the page retrieval time, not a source update.
Scroll the table to see every column.
| Player | Pos | Team | Observed points/game | Games played | Estimated future points/game | Trade value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Ferguson | TE | DAL | 5.14 | 7 | 6.91 | 2.3 |
Future projection context
These estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. They do not identify who to start this week; use your league's lineup tool for that decision.
- Forecast source
- Captured Sleeper future projections
- Forecast captured
- 2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00
- Unstarted games through Week 17
- 9
- Weeks with provider forecasts
- 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 15, 16, 17
- Weeks using model fallback
- None recorded
Draft context
Historical context, not a weekly ranking or remaining-season forecast.
- Full-season preseason projection
- 130
- Draft average position
- 110.8
Observed production
Observed statistics are separate from model estimates. A missing season block means unavailable data.
This season
- Fantasy points
- 36
- Games played
- 7
- Observed through week
- 7
- passing yards
- 0
- passing tds
- 0
- interceptions
- 0
- carries
- 0
- rushing yards
- 0
- rushing tds
- 0
- targets
- 25
- receptions
- 17
- receiving yards
- 115
- receiving tds
- 3
- passing first downs
- 0
- rushing first downs
- 0
- receiving first downs
- 6
- fumbles lost
- 1
- Target share in observed games (%)
- 9.4
- Fantasy points per game
- 5.14
- Yards per carry
- Unavailable
- Yards per target
- 4.6
- Yards per reception
- 6.8
- Catch rate (%)
- 68
- Total yards
- 115
- Yards per game
- 16.4
- touches
- 17
- first downs
- 6
- Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
- 36.3
- Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
- 1.7
- Opportunity observed through week
- 7
- Opportunity coverage
- complete
Previous season
- Fantasy points
- 145.1
- Games played
- 17
- Observed through week
- 18
- passing yards
- 0
- passing tds
- 0
- interceptions
- 0
- carries
- 1
- rushing yards
- 1
- rushing tds
- 0
- targets
- 102
- receptions
- 82
- receiving yards
- 600
- receiving tds
- 8
- passing first downs
- 0
- rushing first downs
- 0
- receiving first downs
- 31
- fumbles lost
- 2
- Target share in observed games (%)
- 16.8
- Fantasy points per game
- 8.54
- Yards per carry
- 1
- Yards per target
- 5.9
- Yards per reception
- 7.3
- Catch rate (%)
- 80.4
- Total yards
- 601
- Yards per game
- 35.4
- touches
- 83
- first downs
- 31
- Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
- 144.5
- Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
- 4.6
- Opportunity observed through week
- 18
- Opportunity coverage
- complete
This season: advanced statistics
- Snap share (%)
- 67
- Time to throw (seconds)
- Unavailable
- Average depth of pass target (yards)
- Unavailable
- pass aggressiveness
- Unavailable
- Completion percentage above expectation
- Unavailable
- pass air to sticks
- Unavailable
- pass rating
- Unavailable
- rush stacked box pct
- Unavailable
- rush time to los
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
- Unavailable
- rush efficiency
- Unavailable
- rush pct over expected
- Unavailable
- rec avg separation
- 3.49
- rec avg cushion
- 4.86
- Average depth of receiving target (yards)
- 5.26
- rec air share
- 6.01
- Receiving yards after catch above expectation
- -0.62
- rec catch pct
- 68
- rec drops
- 2
- rec broken tackles
- 1
- Rushing yards before contact per attempt
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards after contact per attempt
- Unavailable
- rush broken tackles
- Unavailable
- pass pressured pct
- Unavailable
- pass bad throw pct
- Unavailable
- rec drop pct
- 8
Previous season: advanced statistics
- Snap share (%)
- 66.7
- Time to throw (seconds)
- Unavailable
- Average depth of pass target (yards)
- Unavailable
- pass aggressiveness
- Unavailable
- Completion percentage above expectation
- Unavailable
- pass air to sticks
- Unavailable
- pass rating
- Unavailable
- rush stacked box pct
- Unavailable
- rush time to los
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
- Unavailable
- rush efficiency
- Unavailable
- rush pct over expected
- Unavailable
- rec avg separation
- 3.25
- rec avg cushion
- 5.86
- Average depth of receiving target (yards)
- 4.9
- rec air share
- 9.79
- Receiving yards after catch above expectation
- 0.11
- rec catch pct
- 80.39
- rec drops
- 2
- rec broken tackles
- 6
- Rushing yards before contact per attempt
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards after contact per attempt
- Unavailable
- rush broken tackles
- 0
- pass pressured pct
- Unavailable
- pass bad throw pct
- Unavailable
- rec drop pct
- 2
Player narrative and news
Generated narrative is context, not a verified injury forecast or a weekly recommendation. Inspect its own dates before using it.
Write-up generated: 2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00
Latest stored news context
{
"digest": "Jake Ferguson restructures contract with Cowboys — Ferguson's $7.25 million base salary was turned into a signing bonus. The Cowboys now have $33.2 million in salary cap space. ",
"latest_at": "2026-09-04T16:28:38+00:00",
"updated_at": "2026-09-07T10:00:01.832685+00:00",
"llm_sentiment": 1,
"llm_injury_trajectory": 0,
"llm_severity": 0,
"llm_weeks_out": null,
"llm_offfield_risk": 0,
"llm_key_phrases": "restructures contract; signing bonus; base salary turned; cap space",
"llm_role_change": 0,
"llm_usage_outlook": 0,
"llm_team_context": 0,
"llm_relevance": 0.2,
"llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-07T10:01:39.784350+00:00",
"llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
"inference_status": "current"
}Profile freshness: {"writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "unavailable", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."}
Complete source evidence
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"draft_adp": {
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}
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"note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."
},
"outcome_readiness": {
"completed_week": 7,
"fresh": true,
"checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00",
"status": "ready"
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"valuation_context": {
"phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback",
"fallback_phase": "in_season_blend",
"fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7,
"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true,
"advanced_stats_priced": false,
"injury_outlook": "annotation_only",
"remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games"
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"value_locked": null,
"ytd_through_week": 8,
"ytd_complete_through_week": 7,
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"url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"
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"limitations": [
"Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.",
"generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.",
"Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.",
"Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.",
"League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."
],
"metric_definitions": {
"proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.",
"adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.",
"ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.",
"tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.",
"ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.",
"projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.",
"value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.",
"xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.",
"xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."
},
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"player": {
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"name": "Jake Ferguson",
"team": "DAL",
"pos": "TE",
"age": 27,
"exp": 4,
"injury": null,
"rookie": false,
"value": 2.3,
"ros_ppg": 6.91,
"games_left": 9,
"projection": {
"ros_ppg": 6.9094444444444445,
"source": "sleeper_future",
"captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00",
"covered_weeks": [
8,
9,
10,
11,
12,
13,
15,
16,
17
],
"missing_weeks": [],
"remaining_games": 9
},
"proj": 130,
"adp": 110.8,
"adp_pr": 13,
"ly": {
"pts": 145.1,
"g": 17,
"through_week": 18,
"passing_yards": 0.0,
"passing_tds": 0.0,
"interceptions": 0.0,
"carries": 1.0,
"rushing_yards": 1.0,
"rushing_tds": 0.0,
"targets": 102.0,
"receptions": 82.0,
"receiving_yards": 600.0,
"receiving_tds": 8.0,
"passing_first_downs": 0.0,
"rushing_first_downs": 0.0,
"receiving_first_downs": 31.0,
"fumbles_lost": 2.0,
"tgt_share": 16.8,
"ppg": 8.54,
"ypc": 1.0,
"ypt": 5.9,
"ypr": 7.3,
"catch_pct": 80.4,
"total_yd": 601.0,
"ypg": 35.4,
"touches": 83.0,
"first_downs": 31.0,
"xfp": 144.5,
"xfp_diff": 4.6,
"xfp_through_week": 18,
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"adv": {
"snap_pct": 66.7,
"pass_time_to_throw": null,
"pass_adot": null,
"pass_aggressiveness": null,
"pass_cpoe": null,
"pass_air_to_sticks": null,
"pass_rating": null,
"rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
"rush_time_to_los": null,
"rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
"rush_efficiency": null,
"rush_pct_over_expected": null,
"rec_avg_separation": 3.25,
"rec_avg_cushion": 5.86,
"rec_adot": 4.9,
"rec_air_share": 9.79,
"rec_yac_above_exp": 0.11,
"rec_catch_pct": 80.39,
"rec_drops": 2.0,
"rec_broken_tackles": 6.0,
"rush_ybc_att": null,
"rush_yac_att": null,
"rush_broken_tackles": 0.0,
"pass_pressured_pct": null,
"pass_bad_throw_pct": null,
"rec_drop_pct": 2.0
},
"ytd": {
"pts": 36.0,
"g": 7,
"through_week": 7,
"passing_yards": 0.0,
"passing_tds": 0.0,
"interceptions": 0.0,
"carries": 0.0,
"rushing_yards": 0.0,
"rushing_tds": 0.0,
"targets": 25.0,
"receptions": 17.0,
"receiving_yards": 115.0,
"receiving_tds": 3.0,
"passing_first_downs": 0.0,
"rushing_first_downs": 0.0,
"receiving_first_downs": 6.0,
"fumbles_lost": 1.0,
"tgt_share": 9.4,
"ppg": 5.14,
"ypc": null,
"ypt": 4.6,
"ypr": 6.8,
"catch_pct": 68.0,
"total_yd": 115.0,
"ypg": 16.4,
"touches": 17.0,
"first_downs": 6.0,
"xfp": 36.3,
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"xfp_through_week": 7,
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"adv_ytd": {
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"pass_time_to_throw": null,
"pass_adot": null,
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"pass_cpoe": null,
"pass_air_to_sticks": null,
"pass_rating": null,
"rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
"rush_time_to_los": null,
"rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
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"rec_avg_separation": 3.49,
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"rec_yac_above_exp": -0.62,
"rec_catch_pct": 68.0,
"rec_drops": 2.0,
"rec_broken_tackles": 1.0,
"rush_ybc_att": null,
"rush_yac_att": null,
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"pass_pressured_pct": null,
"pass_bad_throw_pct": null,
"rec_drop_pct": 8.0
}
},
"profile": {
"sleeper_id": "8110",
"season": 2026,
"as_of": "2026-11-01T01:40:28.700759+00:00",
"freshness": {
"writeup": "preseason_context",
"news": "stale",
"news_inference": "current",
"injury_outlook": "unavailable",
"note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."
},
"writeup": "Eighty-two catches, fourth most among tight ends, on 102 targets, paired with the position's worst yards per reception at 7.3. Ferguson's 2025 was short-area volume in close to its purest form: a 4.85 aDOT (21st percentile), an 80.4 percent catch rate (91st), 5.9 yards a target (4th percentile), and 35 receiving yards a game. That high catch rate next to bottom-of-the-league per-catch output is the classic signature of easy, shallow, manufactured targets, and his scoring confirms nothing unusual happened on top of them, 145.1 actual points against 144.5 expected, a match nearly to the decimal. Eight touchdowns (96th percentile) carried a large share of the value, and Dallas ranking fourth by implied team totals keeps that pipeline believable. Half-PPR drafters take him at 105.3 as the TE12 while the projection scores him TE15 at 130, so the market is paying a small premium over the numbers. Full-point leagues value his catch volume properly, while at half credit the profile leans on the touchdowns repeating, and the two fumbles he lost last season, rare for a tight end, are an unwelcome footnote on an otherwise steady profile.",
"writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00",
"news": {
"digest": "Jake Ferguson restructures contract with Cowboys — Ferguson's $7.25 million base salary was turned into a signing bonus. The Cowboys now have $33.2 million in salary cap space. ",
"latest_at": "2026-09-04T16:28:38+00:00",
"updated_at": "2026-09-07T10:00:01.832685+00:00",
"llm_sentiment": 1,
"llm_injury_trajectory": 0,
"llm_severity": 0,
"llm_weeks_out": null,
"llm_offfield_risk": 0,
"llm_key_phrases": "restructures contract; signing bonus; base salary turned; cap space",
"llm_role_change": 0,
"llm_usage_outlook": 0,
"llm_team_context": 0,
"llm_relevance": 0.2,
"llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-07T10:01:39.784350+00:00",
"llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
"inference_status": "current"
},
"injury_outlook": null,
"injury_outlook_last_captured": null
}
}Use this source carefully
- Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.
- generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.
- Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.
- Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.
- League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring.