# Jake Ferguson — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/8110 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/8110", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:24:55.845473+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "8110", "name": "Jake Ferguson", "team": "DAL", "pos": "TE", "age": 27, "exp": 4, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 2.3, "ros_ppg": 6.91, "games_left": 9, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 6.9094444444444445, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 9 }, "proj": 130, "adp": 110.8, "adp_pr": 13, "ly": { "pts": 145.1, "g": 17, "through_week": 18, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 1.0, "rushing_yards": 1.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 102.0, "receptions": 82.0, "receiving_yards": 600.0, "receiving_tds": 8.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 31.0, "fumbles_lost": 2.0, "tgt_share": 16.8, "ppg": 8.54, "ypc": 1.0, "ypt": 5.9, "ypr": 7.3, "catch_pct": 80.4, "total_yd": 601.0, "ypg": 35.4, "touches": 83.0, "first_downs": 31.0, "xfp": 144.5, "xfp_diff": 4.6, "xfp_through_week": 18, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 66.7, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 3.25, "rec_avg_cushion": 5.86, "rec_adot": 4.9, "rec_air_share": 9.79, "rec_yac_above_exp": 0.11, "rec_catch_pct": 80.39, "rec_drops": 2.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 6.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 2.0 }, "ytd": { "pts": 36.0, "g": 7, "through_week": 7, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "rushing_yards": 0.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 25.0, "receptions": 17.0, "receiving_yards": 115.0, "receiving_tds": 3.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 6.0, "fumbles_lost": 1.0, "tgt_share": 9.4, "ppg": 5.14, "ypc": null, "ypt": 4.6, "ypr": 6.8, "catch_pct": 68.0, "total_yd": 115.0, "ypg": 16.4, "touches": 17.0, "first_downs": 6.0, "xfp": 36.3, "xfp_diff": 1.7, "xfp_through_week": 7, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 67.0, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 3.49, "rec_avg_cushion": 4.86, "rec_adot": 5.26, "rec_air_share": 6.01, "rec_yac_above_exp": -0.62, "rec_catch_pct": 68.0, "rec_drops": 2.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 1.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": null, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 8.0 } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "8110", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:24:55.874927+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "unavailable", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Eighty-two catches, fourth most among tight ends, on 102 targets, paired with the position's worst yards per reception at 7.3. Ferguson's 2025 was short-area volume in close to its purest form: a 4.85 aDOT (21st percentile), an 80.4 percent catch rate (91st), 5.9 yards a target (4th percentile), and 35 receiving yards a game. That high catch rate next to bottom-of-the-league per-catch output is the classic signature of easy, shallow, manufactured targets, and his scoring confirms nothing unusual happened on top of them, 145.1 actual points against 144.5 expected, a match nearly to the decimal. Eight touchdowns (96th percentile) carried a large share of the value, and Dallas ranking fourth by implied team totals keeps that pipeline believable. Half-PPR drafters take him at 105.3 as the TE12 while the projection scores him TE15 at 130, so the market is paying a small premium over the numbers. Full-point leagues value his catch volume properly, while at half credit the profile leans on the touchdowns repeating, and the two fumbles he lost last season, rare for a tight end, are an unwelcome footnote on an otherwise steady profile.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Jake Ferguson restructures contract with Cowboys — Ferguson's $7.25 million base salary was turned into a signing bonus. The Cowboys now have $33.2 million in salary cap space. ", "latest_at": "2026-09-04T16:28:38+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-07T10:00:01.832685+00:00", "llm_sentiment": 1, "llm_injury_trajectory": 0, "llm_severity": 0, "llm_weeks_out": null, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "restructures contract; signing bonus; base salary turned; cap space", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": 0, "llm_team_context": 0, "llm_relevance": 0.2, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-07T10:01:39.784350+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": null } } ```