{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/8110","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:22:20.637405+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"8110","name":"Jake Ferguson","team":"DAL","pos":"TE","age":27,"exp":4,"injury":null,"rookie":false,"value":2.3,"ros_ppg":6.91,"games_left":9,"projection":{"ros_ppg":6.9094444444444445,"source":"sleeper_future","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[8,9,10,11,12,13,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[],"remaining_games":9},"proj":130,"adp":110.8,"adp_pr":13,"ly":{"pts":145.1,"g":17,"through_week":18,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":1.0,"rushing_yards":1.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":102.0,"receptions":82.0,"receiving_yards":600.0,"receiving_tds":8.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":0.0,"receiving_first_downs":31.0,"fumbles_lost":2.0,"tgt_share":16.8,"ppg":8.54,"ypc":1.0,"ypt":5.9,"ypr":7.3,"catch_pct":80.4,"total_yd":601.0,"ypg":35.4,"touches":83.0,"first_downs":31.0,"xfp":144.5,"xfp_diff":4.6,"xfp_through_week":18,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":66.7,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":3.25,"rec_avg_cushion":5.86,"rec_adot":4.9,"rec_air_share":9.79,"rec_yac_above_exp":0.11,"rec_catch_pct":80.39,"rec_drops":2.0,"rec_broken_tackles":6.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":0.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":2.0},"ytd":{"pts":36.0,"g":7,"through_week":7,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":0.0,"rushing_yards":0.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":25.0,"receptions":17.0,"receiving_yards":115.0,"receiving_tds":3.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":0.0,"receiving_first_downs":6.0,"fumbles_lost":1.0,"tgt_share":9.4,"ppg":5.14,"ypc":null,"ypt":4.6,"ypr":6.8,"catch_pct":68.0,"total_yd":115.0,"ypg":16.4,"touches":17.0,"first_downs":6.0,"xfp":36.3,"xfp_diff":1.7,"xfp_through_week":7,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":67.0,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":3.49,"rec_avg_cushion":4.86,"rec_adot":5.26,"rec_air_share":6.01,"rec_yac_above_exp":-0.62,"rec_catch_pct":68.0,"rec_drops":2.0,"rec_broken_tackles":1.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":null,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":8.0}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"8110","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:22:20.640342+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"unavailable","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Eighty-two catches, fourth most among tight ends, on 102 targets, paired with the position's worst yards per reception at 7.3. Ferguson's 2025 was short-area volume in close to its purest form: a 4.85 aDOT (21st percentile), an 80.4 percent catch rate (91st), 5.9 yards a target (4th percentile), and 35 receiving yards a game. That high catch rate next to bottom-of-the-league per-catch output is the classic signature of easy, shallow, manufactured targets, and his scoring confirms nothing unusual happened on top of them, 145.1 actual points against 144.5 expected, a match nearly to the decimal. Eight touchdowns (96th percentile) carried a large share of the value, and Dallas ranking fourth by implied team totals keeps that pipeline believable. Half-PPR drafters take him at 105.3 as the TE12 while the projection scores him TE15 at 130, so the market is paying a small premium over the numbers. Full-point leagues value his catch volume properly, while at half credit the profile leans on the touchdowns repeating, and the two fumbles he lost last season, rare for a tight end, are an unwelcome footnote on an otherwise steady profile.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"Jake Ferguson restructures contract with Cowboys  — Ferguson's $7.25 million base salary was turned into a signing bonus. The Cowboys now have $33.2 million in salary cap space. 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