Player sourcebook / TE · SEA
AJ Barner
Read as Markdown · JSON · Interactive board
- Season / week
- 2026 / 8
- Scoring
- HALF · 12 teams · 1 QB
- Source freshness
- partial
- Observed season stats
- Through week 8; complete through week 7. The latest week may be partial.
Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt.
- outcomes
- ready
Captured 2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00; complete through week 7 - season projection
- preseason prior
Captured Unknown - draft adp
- preseason context
Captured Unknown - advanced stats
- coverage not verified
Captured Unknown
Model version and retrieval details
Model generated: 2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00. Model generation time does not establish source freshness.
Model version: trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1
Data version: board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8
Retrieved 2026-11-01T01:41:31.486141+00:00. This is the page retrieval time, not a source update.
Scroll the table to see every column.
| Player | Pos | Team | Observed points/game | Games played | Estimated future points/game | Trade value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Barner | TE | SEA | 4.86 | 7 | 6.53 | 0 |
Future projection context
These estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. They do not identify who to start this week; use your league's lineup tool for that decision.
- Forecast source
- Captured Sleeper future projections
- Forecast captured
- 2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00
- Unstarted games through Week 17
- 9
- Weeks with provider forecasts
- 8, 9, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
- Weeks using model fallback
- None recorded
Draft context
Historical context, not a weekly ranking or remaining-season forecast.
- Full-season preseason projection
- 100
- Draft average position
- 196.2
Observed production
Observed statistics are separate from model estimates. A missing season block means unavailable data.
This season
- Fantasy points
- 34
- Games played
- 7
- Observed through week
- 7
- passing yards
- 0
- passing tds
- 0
- interceptions
- 0
- carries
- 4
- rushing yards
- 5
- rushing tds
- 1
- targets
- 29
- receptions
- 19
- receiving yards
- 180
- receiving tds
- 0
- passing first downs
- 0
- rushing first downs
- 4
- receiving first downs
- 10
- fumbles lost
- 0
- Target share in observed games (%)
- 13.5
- Fantasy points per game
- 4.86
- Yards per carry
- 1.2
- Yards per target
- 6.2
- Yards per reception
- 9.5
- Catch rate (%)
- 65.5
- Total yards
- 185
- Yards per game
- 26.4
- touches
- 23
- first downs
- 14
- Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
- 41.7
- Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
- -7.7
- Opportunity observed through week
- 7
- Opportunity coverage
- complete
Previous season
- Fantasy points
- 121.3
- Games played
- 17
- Observed through week
- 18
- passing yards
- 0
- passing tds
- 0
- interceptions
- 0
- carries
- 10
- rushing yards
- 14
- rushing tds
- 1
- targets
- 68
- receptions
- 52
- receiving yards
- 519
- receiving tds
- 6
- passing first downs
- 0
- rushing first downs
- 9
- receiving first downs
- 26
- fumbles lost
- 0
- Target share in observed games (%)
- 14.9
- Fantasy points per game
- 7.14
- Yards per carry
- 1.4
- Yards per target
- 7.6
- Yards per reception
- 10
- Catch rate (%)
- 76.5
- Total yards
- 533
- Yards per game
- 31.4
- touches
- 62
- first downs
- 35
- Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
- 97.2
- Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
- 24.1
- Opportunity observed through week
- 18
- Opportunity coverage
- complete
This season: advanced statistics
- Snap share (%)
- 88.1
- Time to throw (seconds)
- Unavailable
- Average depth of pass target (yards)
- Unavailable
- pass aggressiveness
- Unavailable
- Completion percentage above expectation
- Unavailable
- pass air to sticks
- Unavailable
- pass rating
- Unavailable
- rush stacked box pct
- Unavailable
- rush time to los
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
- Unavailable
- rush efficiency
- Unavailable
- rush pct over expected
- Unavailable
- rec avg separation
- 3.72
- rec avg cushion
- 5.53
- Average depth of receiving target (yards)
- 2.4
- rec air share
- 4.28
- Receiving yards after catch above expectation
- 0.39
- rec catch pct
- 65.52
- rec drops
- 2
- rec broken tackles
- 2
- Rushing yards before contact per attempt
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards after contact per attempt
- Unavailable
- rush broken tackles
- 0
- pass pressured pct
- Unavailable
- pass bad throw pct
- Unavailable
- rec drop pct
- 6.9
Previous season: advanced statistics
- Snap share (%)
- 77.3
- Time to throw (seconds)
- Unavailable
- Average depth of pass target (yards)
- Unavailable
- pass aggressiveness
- Unavailable
- Completion percentage above expectation
- Unavailable
- pass air to sticks
- Unavailable
- pass rating
- Unavailable
- rush stacked box pct
- Unavailable
- rush time to los
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
- Unavailable
- rush efficiency
- Unavailable
- rush pct over expected
- Unavailable
- rec avg separation
- 4.08
- rec avg cushion
- 4.64
- Average depth of receiving target (yards)
- 4.78
- rec air share
- 8.6
- Receiving yards after catch above expectation
- 0.86
- rec catch pct
- 76.47
- rec drops
- 2
- rec broken tackles
- 5
- Rushing yards before contact per attempt
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards after contact per attempt
- Unavailable
- rush broken tackles
- 0
- pass pressured pct
- Unavailable
- pass bad throw pct
- Unavailable
- rec drop pct
- 2.9
Player narrative and news
Generated narrative is context, not a verified injury forecast or a weekly recommendation. Inspect its own dates before using it.
Write-up generated: 2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00
Latest stored news context
{
"digest": "AJ Barner runs in touchdown in win over Cardinals — Barner's fantasy day was saved by the touchdown, as he hasn't gotten much volume to start the season. He's touchdown-or-bust right now and is best left on the bench or on waivers.",
"latest_at": "2026-09-22T02:07:07+00:00",
"updated_at": "2026-09-23T09:00:05.446832+00:00",
"llm_sentiment": -1,
"llm_injury_trajectory": 0,
"llm_severity": 0,
"llm_weeks_out": null,
"llm_offfield_risk": 0,
"llm_key_phrases": "touchdown saved; hasn't gotten much volume; best left on bench; touchdown-or-bust; bench or waivers",
"llm_role_change": 0,
"llm_usage_outlook": -1,
"llm_team_context": 0,
"llm_relevance": 0.9,
"llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-23T09:15:43.359637+00:00",
"llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
"inference_status": "current"
}Profile freshness: {"writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."}
Complete source evidence
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"draft_adp": {
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"note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."
},
"outcome_readiness": {
"completed_week": 7,
"fresh": true,
"checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00",
"status": "ready"
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"valuation_context": {
"phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback",
"fallback_phase": "in_season_blend",
"fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7,
"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true,
"advanced_stats_priced": false,
"injury_outlook": "annotation_only",
"remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games"
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"value_locked": null,
"ytd_through_week": 8,
"ytd_complete_through_week": 7,
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"url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"
}
],
"limitations": [
"Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.",
"generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.",
"Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.",
"Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.",
"League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."
],
"metric_definitions": {
"proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.",
"adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.",
"ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.",
"tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.",
"ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.",
"projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.",
"value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.",
"xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.",
"xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."
},
"access": {
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"pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app",
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"player": {
"sleeper_id": "11603",
"name": "AJ Barner",
"team": "SEA",
"pos": "TE",
"age": 24,
"exp": 2,
"injury": null,
"rookie": false,
"value": 0.0,
"ros_ppg": 6.53,
"games_left": 9,
"projection": {
"ros_ppg": 6.5265555555555546,
"source": "sleeper_future",
"captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00",
"covered_weeks": [
8,
9,
10,
12,
13,
14,
15,
16,
17
],
"missing_weeks": [],
"remaining_games": 9
},
"proj": 100,
"adp": 196.2,
"adp_pr": 23,
"ly": {
"pts": 121.3,
"g": 17,
"through_week": 18,
"passing_yards": 0.0,
"passing_tds": 0.0,
"interceptions": 0.0,
"carries": 10.0,
"rushing_yards": 14.0,
"rushing_tds": 1.0,
"targets": 68.0,
"receptions": 52.0,
"receiving_yards": 519.0,
"receiving_tds": 6.0,
"passing_first_downs": 0.0,
"rushing_first_downs": 9.0,
"receiving_first_downs": 26.0,
"fumbles_lost": 0.0,
"tgt_share": 14.9,
"ppg": 7.14,
"ypc": 1.4,
"ypt": 7.6,
"ypr": 10.0,
"catch_pct": 76.5,
"total_yd": 533.0,
"ypg": 31.4,
"touches": 62.0,
"first_downs": 35.0,
"xfp": 97.2,
"xfp_diff": 24.1,
"xfp_through_week": 18,
"xfp_coverage": "complete"
},
"adv": {
"snap_pct": 77.3,
"pass_time_to_throw": null,
"pass_adot": null,
"pass_aggressiveness": null,
"pass_cpoe": null,
"pass_air_to_sticks": null,
"pass_rating": null,
"rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
"rush_time_to_los": null,
"rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
"rush_efficiency": null,
"rush_pct_over_expected": null,
"rec_avg_separation": 4.08,
"rec_avg_cushion": 4.64,
"rec_adot": 4.78,
"rec_air_share": 8.6,
"rec_yac_above_exp": 0.86,
"rec_catch_pct": 76.47,
"rec_drops": 2.0,
"rec_broken_tackles": 5.0,
"rush_ybc_att": null,
"rush_yac_att": null,
"rush_broken_tackles": 0.0,
"pass_pressured_pct": null,
"pass_bad_throw_pct": null,
"rec_drop_pct": 2.9
},
"ytd": {
"pts": 34.0,
"g": 7,
"through_week": 7,
"passing_yards": 0.0,
"passing_tds": 0.0,
"interceptions": 0.0,
"carries": 4.0,
"rushing_yards": 5.0,
"rushing_tds": 1.0,
"targets": 29.0,
"receptions": 19.0,
"receiving_yards": 180.0,
"receiving_tds": 0.0,
"passing_first_downs": 0.0,
"rushing_first_downs": 4.0,
"receiving_first_downs": 10.0,
"fumbles_lost": 0.0,
"tgt_share": 13.5,
"ppg": 4.86,
"ypc": 1.2,
"ypt": 6.2,
"ypr": 9.5,
"catch_pct": 65.5,
"total_yd": 185.0,
"ypg": 26.4,
"touches": 23.0,
"first_downs": 14.0,
"xfp": 41.7,
"xfp_diff": -7.7,
"xfp_through_week": 7,
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"adv_ytd": {
"snap_pct": 88.1,
"pass_time_to_throw": null,
"pass_adot": null,
"pass_aggressiveness": null,
"pass_cpoe": null,
"pass_air_to_sticks": null,
"pass_rating": null,
"rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
"rush_time_to_los": null,
"rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
"rush_efficiency": null,
"rush_pct_over_expected": null,
"rec_avg_separation": 3.72,
"rec_avg_cushion": 5.53,
"rec_adot": 2.4,
"rec_air_share": 4.28,
"rec_yac_above_exp": 0.39,
"rec_catch_pct": 65.52,
"rec_drops": 2.0,
"rec_broken_tackles": 2.0,
"rush_ybc_att": null,
"rush_yac_att": null,
"rush_broken_tackles": 0.0,
"pass_pressured_pct": null,
"pass_bad_throw_pct": null,
"rec_drop_pct": 6.9
}
},
"profile": {
"sleeper_id": "11603",
"season": 2026,
"as_of": "2026-11-01T01:41:31.489065+00:00",
"freshness": {
"writeup": "preseason_context",
"news": "stale",
"news_inference": "current",
"injury_outlook": "stale",
"note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."
},
"writeup": "AJ Barner owns the strangest charting line in this tight end class. He faced the tightest pre-snap coverage of any qualified tight end, a 4.62-yard average cushion that ranked dead last, and still produced 94th-percentile separation, so defenses pressed him and he got open anyway, almost entirely within five yards of the line given his 14th-percentile aDOT. The fantasy issue is what his 121 points were made of. He outscored his opportunity by 24 points, the seventh-largest overshoot at the position, riding six receiving touchdowns plus a rushing score, and touchdown-driven overperformance is the least sticky kind. Seattle helps, ninth in average implied total at 24.9, and ten carries mark a short-yardage role that's genuinely his. The consensus strips the luck back out and lands at TE25 with 100 points against a 133 half-PPR ADP, TE20, and he enters camp carrying a questionable tag besides. The price only works if the touchdowns repeat, and a 29th-percentile air-yards share is not the kind of usage that repeats them.",
"writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00",
"news": {
"digest": "AJ Barner runs in touchdown in win over Cardinals — Barner's fantasy day was saved by the touchdown, as he hasn't gotten much volume to start the season. He's touchdown-or-bust right now and is best left on the bench or on waivers.",
"latest_at": "2026-09-22T02:07:07+00:00",
"updated_at": "2026-09-23T09:00:05.446832+00:00",
"llm_sentiment": -1,
"llm_injury_trajectory": 0,
"llm_severity": 0,
"llm_weeks_out": null,
"llm_offfield_risk": 0,
"llm_key_phrases": "touchdown saved; hasn't gotten much volume; best left on bench; touchdown-or-bust; bench or waivers",
"llm_role_change": 0,
"llm_usage_outlook": -1,
"llm_team_context": 0,
"llm_relevance": 0.9,
"llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-23T09:15:43.359637+00:00",
"llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
"inference_status": "current"
},
"injury_outlook": null,
"injury_outlook_last_captured": {
"status": "questionable",
"exp_miss_next6": null,
"as_of": "2026-07-18",
"source": "curves-v1"
}
}
}Use this source carefully
- Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.
- generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.
- Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.
- Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.
- League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring.