# AJ Barner — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/11603 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/11603", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:31:41.082144+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "11603", "name": "AJ Barner", "team": "SEA", "pos": "TE", "age": 24, "exp": 2, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 0.0, "ros_ppg": 6.53, "games_left": 9, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 6.5265555555555546, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 8, 9, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 9 }, "proj": 100, "adp": 196.2, "adp_pr": 23, "ly": { "pts": 121.3, "g": 17, "through_week": 18, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 10.0, "rushing_yards": 14.0, "rushing_tds": 1.0, "targets": 68.0, "receptions": 52.0, "receiving_yards": 519.0, "receiving_tds": 6.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 9.0, "receiving_first_downs": 26.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 14.9, "ppg": 7.14, "ypc": 1.4, "ypt": 7.6, "ypr": 10.0, "catch_pct": 76.5, "total_yd": 533.0, "ypg": 31.4, "touches": 62.0, "first_downs": 35.0, "xfp": 97.2, "xfp_diff": 24.1, "xfp_through_week": 18, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 77.3, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 4.08, "rec_avg_cushion": 4.64, "rec_adot": 4.78, "rec_air_share": 8.6, "rec_yac_above_exp": 0.86, "rec_catch_pct": 76.47, "rec_drops": 2.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 5.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 2.9 }, "ytd": { "pts": 34.0, "g": 7, "through_week": 7, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 4.0, "rushing_yards": 5.0, "rushing_tds": 1.0, "targets": 29.0, "receptions": 19.0, "receiving_yards": 180.0, "receiving_tds": 0.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 4.0, "receiving_first_downs": 10.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 13.5, "ppg": 4.86, "ypc": 1.2, "ypt": 6.2, "ypr": 9.5, "catch_pct": 65.5, "total_yd": 185.0, "ypg": 26.4, "touches": 23.0, "first_downs": 14.0, "xfp": 41.7, "xfp_diff": -7.7, "xfp_through_week": 7, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 88.1, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 3.72, "rec_avg_cushion": 5.53, "rec_adot": 2.4, "rec_air_share": 4.28, "rec_yac_above_exp": 0.39, "rec_catch_pct": 65.52, "rec_drops": 2.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 2.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 6.9 } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "11603", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:31:41.097044+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "AJ Barner owns the strangest charting line in this tight end class. He faced the tightest pre-snap coverage of any qualified tight end, a 4.62-yard average cushion that ranked dead last, and still produced 94th-percentile separation, so defenses pressed him and he got open anyway, almost entirely within five yards of the line given his 14th-percentile aDOT. The fantasy issue is what his 121 points were made of. He outscored his opportunity by 24 points, the seventh-largest overshoot at the position, riding six receiving touchdowns plus a rushing score, and touchdown-driven overperformance is the least sticky kind. Seattle helps, ninth in average implied total at 24.9, and ten carries mark a short-yardage role that's genuinely his. The consensus strips the luck back out and lands at TE25 with 100 points against a 133 half-PPR ADP, TE20, and he enters camp carrying a questionable tag besides. The price only works if the touchdowns repeat, and a 29th-percentile air-yards share is not the kind of usage that repeats them.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "AJ Barner runs in touchdown in win over Cardinals — Barner's fantasy day was saved by the touchdown, as he hasn't gotten much volume to start the season. He's touchdown-or-bust right now and is best left on the bench or on waivers.", "latest_at": "2026-09-22T02:07:07+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-23T09:00:05.446832+00:00", "llm_sentiment": -1, "llm_injury_trajectory": 0, "llm_severity": 0, "llm_weeks_out": null, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "touchdown saved; hasn't gotten much volume; best left on bench; touchdown-or-bust; bench or waivers", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": -1, "llm_team_context": 0, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-23T09:15:43.359637+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": { "status": "questionable", "exp_miss_next6": null, "as_of": "2026-07-18", "source": "curves-v1" } } } ```