Player sourcebook / WR · GB
Christian Watson
Read as Markdown · JSON · Interactive board
- Season / week
- 2026 / 8
- Scoring
- HALF · 12 teams · 1 QB
- Source freshness
- partial
- Observed season stats
- Through week 8; complete through week 7. The latest week may be partial.
Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt.
- outcomes
- ready
Captured 2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00; complete through week 7 - season projection
- preseason prior
Captured Unknown - draft adp
- preseason context
Captured Unknown - advanced stats
- coverage not verified
Captured Unknown
Model version and retrieval details
Model generated: 2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00. Model generation time does not establish source freshness.
Model version: trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1
Data version: board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8
Retrieved 2026-11-01T01:38:03.442184+00:00. This is the page retrieval time, not a source update.
Scroll the table to see every column.
| Player | Pos | Team | Observed points/game | Games played | Estimated future points/game | Trade value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson | WR | GB | 15.72 | 8 | 14.6 | 56.6 |
Future projection context
These estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. They do not identify who to start this week; use your league's lineup tool for that decision.
- Forecast source
- Captured Sleeper future projections
- Forecast captured
- 2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00
- Unstarted games through Week 17
- 8
- Weeks with provider forecasts
- 9, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
- Weeks using model fallback
- None recorded
Draft context
Historical context, not a weekly ranking or remaining-season forecast.
- Full-season preseason projection
- 168
- Draft average position
- 66.3
Observed production
Observed statistics are separate from model estimates. A missing season block means unavailable data.
This season
- Fantasy points
- 125.8
- Games played
- 8
- Observed through week
- 8
- passing yards
- 0
- passing tds
- 0
- interceptions
- 0
- carries
- 0
- rushing yards
- 0
- rushing tds
- 0
- targets
- 66
- receptions
- 42
- receiving yards
- 708
- receiving tds
- 6
- passing first downs
- 0
- rushing first downs
- 0
- receiving first downs
- 26
- fumbles lost
- 1
- Target share in observed games (%)
- 21.9
- Fantasy points per game
- 15.72
- Yards per carry
- Unavailable
- Yards per target
- 10.7
- Yards per reception
- 16.9
- Catch rate (%)
- 63.6
- Total yards
- 708
- Yards per game
- 88.5
- touches
- 42
- first downs
- 26
- Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
- 99.5
- Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
- 28.3
- Opportunity observed through week
- 8
- Opportunity coverage
- complete
Previous season
- Fantasy points
- 114.9
- Games played
- 10
- Observed through week
- 17
- passing yards
- 0
- passing tds
- 0
- interceptions
- 0
- carries
- 1
- rushing yards
- 3
- rushing tds
- 0
- targets
- 55
- receptions
- 35
- receiving yards
- 611
- receiving tds
- 6
- passing first downs
- 0
- rushing first downs
- 0
- receiving first downs
- 28
- fumbles lost
- 0
- Target share in observed games (%)
- 19.2
- Fantasy points per game
- 11.49
- Yards per carry
- 3
- Yards per target
- 11.1
- Yards per reception
- 17.5
- Catch rate (%)
- 63.6
- Total yards
- 614
- Yards per game
- 61.4
- touches
- 36
- first downs
- 28
- Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
- 91.6
- Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
- 23.3
- Opportunity observed through week
- 17
- Opportunity coverage
- complete
This season: advanced statistics
- Snap share (%)
- 76.5
- Time to throw (seconds)
- Unavailable
- Average depth of pass target (yards)
- Unavailable
- pass aggressiveness
- Unavailable
- Completion percentage above expectation
- Unavailable
- pass air to sticks
- Unavailable
- pass rating
- Unavailable
- rush stacked box pct
- Unavailable
- rush time to los
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
- Unavailable
- rush efficiency
- Unavailable
- rush pct over expected
- Unavailable
- rec avg separation
- 2.38
- rec avg cushion
- 6.84
- Average depth of receiving target (yards)
- 13.79
- rec air share
- 31.86
- Receiving yards after catch above expectation
- 1.52
- rec catch pct
- 63.64
- rec drops
- 3
- rec broken tackles
- 0
- Rushing yards before contact per attempt
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards after contact per attempt
- Unavailable
- rush broken tackles
- Unavailable
- pass pressured pct
- Unavailable
- pass bad throw pct
- Unavailable
- rec drop pct
- 4.5
Previous season: advanced statistics
- Snap share (%)
- 67.7
- Time to throw (seconds)
- Unavailable
- Average depth of pass target (yards)
- Unavailable
- pass aggressiveness
- Unavailable
- Completion percentage above expectation
- Unavailable
- pass air to sticks
- Unavailable
- pass rating
- Unavailable
- rush stacked box pct
- Unavailable
- rush time to los
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
- Unavailable
- rush efficiency
- Unavailable
- rush pct over expected
- Unavailable
- rec avg separation
- 1.97
- rec avg cushion
- 6.27
- Average depth of receiving target (yards)
- 17.65
- rec air share
- 24.1
- Receiving yards after catch above expectation
- 0.8
- rec catch pct
- 63.64
- rec drops
- 1
- rec broken tackles
- 0
- Rushing yards before contact per attempt
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards after contact per attempt
- Unavailable
- rush broken tackles
- 0
- pass pressured pct
- Unavailable
- pass bad throw pct
- Unavailable
- rec drop pct
- 1.8
Player narrative and news
Generated narrative is context, not a verified injury forecast or a weekly recommendation. Inspect its own dates before using it.
Write-up generated: 2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00
Latest stored news context
{
"digest": "Christian Watson good to go for Week 4 — There was some public concern when Watson seemed to favor one of his legs towards the end of last Thursday's game, but he is not listed on Green Bay's injury report for Week 4 and should be a full go against the Buccaneers. He remains a must-start fantasy option as often as he is healthy and on the field moving forward.",
"latest_at": "2026-09-30T21:14:44+00:00",
"updated_at": "2026-10-01T19:00:23.298938+00:00",
"llm_sentiment": 1,
"llm_injury_trajectory": 1,
"llm_severity": 0,
"llm_weeks_out": null,
"llm_offfield_risk": 0,
"llm_key_phrases": "good to go; not listed on injury report; must-start fantasy option; full go; favor one of his legs",
"llm_role_change": 0,
"llm_usage_outlook": 0,
"llm_team_context": 0,
"llm_relevance": 0.9,
"llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-01T19:21:05.712342+00:00",
"llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
"inference_status": "current"
}Profile freshness: {"writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "current", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."}
Stored injury context
{
"status": "questionable",
"exp_miss_next6": 1.6780349575271793,
"as_of": "2026-10-31",
"source": "curves-v1"
}Complete source evidence
{
"schema_version": "public-sources.v1",
"canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/8167",
"retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T01:38:03.442184+00:00",
"season": 2026,
"week": 8,
"last_season": 2025,
"fmt": "half",
"teams": 12,
"qb": 1,
"mode": "inseason",
"data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8",
"model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1",
"generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00",
"freshness": {
"status": "partial",
"expected_season": 2026,
"served_season": 2026,
"expected_week": 8,
"warnings": [],
"sources": {
"outcomes": {
"status": "ready",
"captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00",
"completed_through_week": 7
},
"season_projection": {
"status": "preseason_prior",
"captured_at": null
},
"draft_adp": {
"status": "preseason_context",
"captured_at": null
},
"advanced_stats": {
"status": "coverage_not_verified",
"captured_at": null
}
},
"note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."
},
"outcome_readiness": {
"completed_week": 7,
"fresh": true,
"checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00",
"status": "ready"
},
"valuation_context": {
"phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback",
"fallback_phase": "in_season_blend",
"fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7,
"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true,
"advanced_stats_priced": false,
"injury_outlook": "annotation_only",
"remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games"
},
"value_locked": null,
"ytd_through_week": 8,
"ytd_complete_through_week": 7,
"sources": [
{
"name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board",
"url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"
}
],
"limitations": [
"Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.",
"generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.",
"Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.",
"Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.",
"League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."
],
"metric_definitions": {
"proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.",
"adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.",
"ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.",
"tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.",
"ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.",
"projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.",
"value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.",
"xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.",
"xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."
},
"access": {
"public": true,
"pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app",
"connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect"
},
"player": {
"sleeper_id": "8167",
"name": "Christian Watson",
"team": "GB",
"pos": "WR",
"age": 27,
"exp": 4,
"injury": "Questionable",
"rookie": false,
"value": 56.6,
"ros_ppg": 14.6,
"games_left": 8,
"projection": {
"ros_ppg": 14.601125000000001,
"source": "sleeper_future",
"captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00",
"covered_weeks": [
9,
10,
12,
13,
14,
15,
16,
17
],
"missing_weeks": [],
"remaining_games": 8
},
"proj": 168,
"adp": 66.3,
"adp_pr": 29,
"ly": {
"pts": 114.9,
"g": 10,
"through_week": 17,
"passing_yards": 0.0,
"passing_tds": 0.0,
"interceptions": 0.0,
"carries": 1.0,
"rushing_yards": 3.0,
"rushing_tds": 0.0,
"targets": 55.0,
"receptions": 35.0,
"receiving_yards": 611.0,
"receiving_tds": 6.0,
"passing_first_downs": 0.0,
"rushing_first_downs": 0.0,
"receiving_first_downs": 28.0,
"fumbles_lost": 0.0,
"tgt_share": 19.2,
"ppg": 11.49,
"ypc": 3.0,
"ypt": 11.1,
"ypr": 17.5,
"catch_pct": 63.6,
"total_yd": 614.0,
"ypg": 61.4,
"touches": 36.0,
"first_downs": 28.0,
"xfp": 91.6,
"xfp_diff": 23.3,
"xfp_through_week": 17,
"xfp_coverage": "complete"
},
"adv": {
"snap_pct": 67.7,
"pass_time_to_throw": null,
"pass_adot": null,
"pass_aggressiveness": null,
"pass_cpoe": null,
"pass_air_to_sticks": null,
"pass_rating": null,
"rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
"rush_time_to_los": null,
"rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
"rush_efficiency": null,
"rush_pct_over_expected": null,
"rec_avg_separation": 1.97,
"rec_avg_cushion": 6.27,
"rec_adot": 17.65,
"rec_air_share": 24.1,
"rec_yac_above_exp": 0.8,
"rec_catch_pct": 63.64,
"rec_drops": 1.0,
"rec_broken_tackles": 0.0,
"rush_ybc_att": null,
"rush_yac_att": null,
"rush_broken_tackles": 0.0,
"pass_pressured_pct": null,
"pass_bad_throw_pct": null,
"rec_drop_pct": 1.8
},
"ytd": {
"pts": 125.8,
"g": 8,
"through_week": 8,
"passing_yards": 0.0,
"passing_tds": 0.0,
"interceptions": 0.0,
"carries": 0.0,
"rushing_yards": 0.0,
"rushing_tds": 0.0,
"targets": 66.0,
"receptions": 42.0,
"receiving_yards": 708.0,
"receiving_tds": 6.0,
"passing_first_downs": 0.0,
"rushing_first_downs": 0.0,
"receiving_first_downs": 26.0,
"fumbles_lost": 1.0,
"tgt_share": 21.9,
"ppg": 15.72,
"ypc": null,
"ypt": 10.7,
"ypr": 16.9,
"catch_pct": 63.6,
"total_yd": 708.0,
"ypg": 88.5,
"touches": 42.0,
"first_downs": 26.0,
"xfp": 99.5,
"xfp_diff": 28.3,
"xfp_through_week": 8,
"xfp_coverage": "complete"
},
"adv_ytd": {
"snap_pct": 76.5,
"pass_time_to_throw": null,
"pass_adot": null,
"pass_aggressiveness": null,
"pass_cpoe": null,
"pass_air_to_sticks": null,
"pass_rating": null,
"rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
"rush_time_to_los": null,
"rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
"rush_efficiency": null,
"rush_pct_over_expected": null,
"rec_avg_separation": 2.38,
"rec_avg_cushion": 6.84,
"rec_adot": 13.79,
"rec_air_share": 31.86,
"rec_yac_above_exp": 1.52,
"rec_catch_pct": 63.64,
"rec_drops": 3.0,
"rec_broken_tackles": 0.0,
"rush_ybc_att": null,
"rush_yac_att": null,
"rush_broken_tackles": null,
"pass_pressured_pct": null,
"pass_bad_throw_pct": null,
"rec_drop_pct": 4.5
}
},
"profile": {
"sleeper_id": "8167",
"season": 2026,
"as_of": "2026-11-01T01:38:03.460337+00:00",
"freshness": {
"writeup": "preseason_context",
"news": "stale",
"news_inference": "current",
"injury_outlook": "current",
"note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."
},
"writeup": "At a 17.6-yard average depth of target, second-deepest among all qualified receivers, Watson runs the most extreme route profile in this ADP range. Ten games in 2025 produced 11.5 points per game, an 87th-percentile rate, on just 5.5 targets a game, because nearly every target was maximal: 11.1 yards per target and 17.5 per catch both sat in the 97th percentile, with almost no drops. The separation figure, 2.0 yards and third-worst at the position, tells you how the wins happen, downfield in tight coverage, the least stable way to score fantasy points week to week. He also beat his usage-based expectation by 23 points, a 92nd-percentile overshoot of the sort that usually shrinks. Consensus projects 163 points at WR32, and sixth-round drafters price him WR30, nearly on top of it, so nobody is fooling themselves about the volume. What the pick buys is deliberate variance, a 12.3 percent target share attached to top-of-league per-target efficiency in a Green Bay offense with middling implied totals, best deployed as a bench receiver you start when the matchup calls for chunk plays.",
"writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00",
"news": {
"digest": "Christian Watson good to go for Week 4 — There was some public concern when Watson seemed to favor one of his legs towards the end of last Thursday's game, but he is not listed on Green Bay's injury report for Week 4 and should be a full go against the Buccaneers. He remains a must-start fantasy option as often as he is healthy and on the field moving forward.",
"latest_at": "2026-09-30T21:14:44+00:00",
"updated_at": "2026-10-01T19:00:23.298938+00:00",
"llm_sentiment": 1,
"llm_injury_trajectory": 1,
"llm_severity": 0,
"llm_weeks_out": null,
"llm_offfield_risk": 0,
"llm_key_phrases": "good to go; not listed on injury report; must-start fantasy option; full go; favor one of his legs",
"llm_role_change": 0,
"llm_usage_outlook": 0,
"llm_team_context": 0,
"llm_relevance": 0.9,
"llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-01T19:21:05.712342+00:00",
"llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
"inference_status": "current"
},
"injury_outlook": {
"status": "questionable",
"exp_miss_next6": 1.6780349575271793,
"as_of": "2026-10-31",
"source": "curves-v1"
},
"injury_outlook_last_captured": {
"status": "questionable",
"exp_miss_next6": 1.6780349575271793,
"as_of": "2026-10-31",
"source": "curves-v1"
}
}
}Use this source carefully
- Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.
- generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.
- Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.
- Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.
- League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring.