FOOTBALLQUANTS

Player sourcebook / WR · GB

Christian Watson

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Season / week
2026 / 8
Scoring
HALF · 12 teams · 1 QB
Source freshness
partial
Observed season stats
Through week 8; complete through week 7. The latest week may be partial.

Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt.

outcomes
ready
Captured 2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00; complete through week 7
season projection
preseason prior
Captured Unknown
draft adp
preseason context
Captured Unknown
advanced stats
coverage not verified
Captured Unknown
Model version and retrieval details

Model generated: 2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00. Model generation time does not establish source freshness.

Model version: trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1

Data version: board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8

Retrieved 2026-11-01T01:38:03.442184+00:00. This is the page retrieval time, not a source update.

Scroll the table to see every column.

Alphabetical player research. Observed points use posted games; future estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. Open a player for forecast dates and missing weeks. Trade values are model units.
PlayerPosTeamObserved points/gameGames playedEstimated future points/gameTrade value
Christian Watson WRGB 15.72814.656.6

Future projection context

These estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. They do not identify who to start this week; use your league's lineup tool for that decision.

Forecast source
Captured Sleeper future projections
Forecast captured
2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00
Unstarted games through Week 17
8
Weeks with provider forecasts
9, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
Weeks using model fallback
None recorded

Draft context

Historical context, not a weekly ranking or remaining-season forecast.

Full-season preseason projection
168
Draft average position
66.3

Observed production

Observed statistics are separate from model estimates. A missing season block means unavailable data.

This season

Fantasy points
125.8
Games played
8
Observed through week
8
passing yards
0
passing tds
0
interceptions
0
carries
0
rushing yards
0
rushing tds
0
targets
66
receptions
42
receiving yards
708
receiving tds
6
passing first downs
0
rushing first downs
0
receiving first downs
26
fumbles lost
1
Target share in observed games (%)
21.9
Fantasy points per game
15.72
Yards per carry
Unavailable
Yards per target
10.7
Yards per reception
16.9
Catch rate (%)
63.6
Total yards
708
Yards per game
88.5
touches
42
first downs
26
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
99.5
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
28.3
Opportunity observed through week
8
Opportunity coverage
complete

Previous season

Fantasy points
114.9
Games played
10
Observed through week
17
passing yards
0
passing tds
0
interceptions
0
carries
1
rushing yards
3
rushing tds
0
targets
55
receptions
35
receiving yards
611
receiving tds
6
passing first downs
0
rushing first downs
0
receiving first downs
28
fumbles lost
0
Target share in observed games (%)
19.2
Fantasy points per game
11.49
Yards per carry
3
Yards per target
11.1
Yards per reception
17.5
Catch rate (%)
63.6
Total yards
614
Yards per game
61.4
touches
36
first downs
28
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
91.6
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
23.3
Opportunity observed through week
17
Opportunity coverage
complete

This season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
76.5
Time to throw (seconds)
Unavailable
Average depth of pass target (yards)
Unavailable
pass aggressiveness
Unavailable
Completion percentage above expectation
Unavailable
pass air to sticks
Unavailable
pass rating
Unavailable
rush stacked box pct
Unavailable
rush time to los
Unavailable
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
Unavailable
rush efficiency
Unavailable
rush pct over expected
Unavailable
rec avg separation
2.38
rec avg cushion
6.84
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
13.79
rec air share
31.86
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
1.52
rec catch pct
63.64
rec drops
3
rec broken tackles
0
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
Unavailable
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
Unavailable
rush broken tackles
Unavailable
pass pressured pct
Unavailable
pass bad throw pct
Unavailable
rec drop pct
4.5

Previous season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
67.7
Time to throw (seconds)
Unavailable
Average depth of pass target (yards)
Unavailable
pass aggressiveness
Unavailable
Completion percentage above expectation
Unavailable
pass air to sticks
Unavailable
pass rating
Unavailable
rush stacked box pct
Unavailable
rush time to los
Unavailable
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
Unavailable
rush efficiency
Unavailable
rush pct over expected
Unavailable
rec avg separation
1.97
rec avg cushion
6.27
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
17.65
rec air share
24.1
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
0.8
rec catch pct
63.64
rec drops
1
rec broken tackles
0
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
Unavailable
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
Unavailable
rush broken tackles
0
pass pressured pct
Unavailable
pass bad throw pct
Unavailable
rec drop pct
1.8

Player narrative and news

Generated narrative is context, not a verified injury forecast or a weekly recommendation. Inspect its own dates before using it.

Write-up generated: 2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00

At a 17.6-yard average depth of target, second-deepest among all qualified receivers, Watson runs the most extreme route profile in this ADP range. Ten games in 2025 produced 11.5 points per game, an 87th-percentile rate, on just 5.5 targets a game, because nearly every target was maximal: 11.1 yards per target and 17.5 per catch both sat in the 97th percentile, with almost no drops. The separation figure, 2.0 yards and third-worst at the position, tells you how the wins happen, downfield in tight coverage, the least stable way to score fantasy points week to week. He also beat his usage-based expectation by 23 points, a 92nd-percentile overshoot of the sort that usually shrinks. Consensus projects 163 points at WR32, and sixth-round drafters price him WR30, nearly on top of it, so nobody is fooling themselves about the volume. What the pick buys is deliberate variance, a 12.3 percent target share attached to top-of-league per-target efficiency in a Green Bay offense with middling implied totals, best deployed as a bench receiver you start when the matchup calls for chunk plays.

Latest stored news context

{
  "digest": "Christian Watson good to go for Week 4 — There was some public concern when Watson seemed to favor one of his legs towards the end of last Thursday's game, but he is not listed on Green Bay's injury report for Week 4 and should be a full go against the Buccaneers. He remains a must-start fantasy option as often as he is healthy and on the field moving forward.",
  "latest_at": "2026-09-30T21:14:44+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-01T19:00:23.298938+00:00",
  "llm_sentiment": 1,
  "llm_injury_trajectory": 1,
  "llm_severity": 0,
  "llm_weeks_out": null,
  "llm_offfield_risk": 0,
  "llm_key_phrases": "good to go; not listed on injury report; must-start fantasy option; full go; favor one of his legs",
  "llm_role_change": 0,
  "llm_usage_outlook": 0,
  "llm_team_context": 0,
  "llm_relevance": 0.9,
  "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-01T19:21:05.712342+00:00",
  "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
  "inference_status": "current"
}

Profile freshness: {"writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "current", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."}

Stored injury context

{
  "status": "questionable",
  "exp_miss_next6": 1.6780349575271793,
  "as_of": "2026-10-31",
  "source": "curves-v1"
}
Complete source evidence
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  "valuation_context": {
    "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback",
    "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend",
    "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7,
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    "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.",
    "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.",
    "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.",
    "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."
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    "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.",
    "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.",
    "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.",
    "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.",
    "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.",
    "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."
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  "player": {
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    "name": "Christian Watson",
    "team": "GB",
    "pos": "WR",
    "age": 27,
    "exp": 4,
    "injury": "Questionable",
    "rookie": false,
    "value": 56.6,
    "ros_ppg": 14.6,
    "games_left": 8,
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      "ros_ppg": 14.601125000000001,
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    "proj": 168,
    "adp": 66.3,
    "adp_pr": 29,
    "ly": {
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      "g": 10,
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      "passing_tds": 0.0,
      "interceptions": 0.0,
      "carries": 1.0,
      "rushing_yards": 3.0,
      "rushing_tds": 0.0,
      "targets": 55.0,
      "receptions": 35.0,
      "receiving_yards": 611.0,
      "receiving_tds": 6.0,
      "passing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "rushing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 28.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 0.0,
      "tgt_share": 19.2,
      "ppg": 11.49,
      "ypc": 3.0,
      "ypt": 11.1,
      "ypr": 17.5,
      "catch_pct": 63.6,
      "total_yd": 614.0,
      "ypg": 61.4,
      "touches": 36.0,
      "first_downs": 28.0,
      "xfp": 91.6,
      "xfp_diff": 23.3,
      "xfp_through_week": 17,
      "xfp_coverage": "complete"
    },
    "adv": {
      "snap_pct": 67.7,
      "pass_time_to_throw": null,
      "pass_adot": null,
      "pass_aggressiveness": null,
      "pass_cpoe": null,
      "pass_air_to_sticks": null,
      "pass_rating": null,
      "rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
      "rush_time_to_los": null,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
      "rush_efficiency": null,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": null,
      "rec_avg_separation": 1.97,
      "rec_avg_cushion": 6.27,
      "rec_adot": 17.65,
      "rec_air_share": 24.1,
      "rec_yac_above_exp": 0.8,
      "rec_catch_pct": 63.64,
      "rec_drops": 1.0,
      "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0,
      "rush_ybc_att": null,
      "rush_yac_att": null,
      "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0,
      "pass_pressured_pct": null,
      "pass_bad_throw_pct": null,
      "rec_drop_pct": 1.8
    },
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      "g": 8,
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      "interceptions": 0.0,
      "carries": 0.0,
      "rushing_yards": 0.0,
      "rushing_tds": 0.0,
      "targets": 66.0,
      "receptions": 42.0,
      "receiving_yards": 708.0,
      "receiving_tds": 6.0,
      "passing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "rushing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 26.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 1.0,
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      "ppg": 15.72,
      "ypc": null,
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      "touches": 42.0,
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      "pass_air_to_sticks": null,
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      "rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
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      "rec_avg_separation": 2.38,
      "rec_avg_cushion": 6.84,
      "rec_adot": 13.79,
      "rec_air_share": 31.86,
      "rec_yac_above_exp": 1.52,
      "rec_catch_pct": 63.64,
      "rec_drops": 3.0,
      "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0,
      "rush_ybc_att": null,
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      "news": "stale",
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    "writeup": "At a 17.6-yard average depth of target, second-deepest among all qualified receivers, Watson runs the most extreme route profile in this ADP range. Ten games in 2025 produced 11.5 points per game, an 87th-percentile rate, on just 5.5 targets a game, because nearly every target was maximal: 11.1 yards per target and 17.5 per catch both sat in the 97th percentile, with almost no drops. The separation figure, 2.0 yards and third-worst at the position, tells you how the wins happen, downfield in tight coverage, the least stable way to score fantasy points week to week. He also beat his usage-based expectation by 23 points, a 92nd-percentile overshoot of the sort that usually shrinks. Consensus projects 163 points at WR32, and sixth-round drafters price him WR30, nearly on top of it, so nobody is fooling themselves about the volume. What the pick buys is deliberate variance, a 12.3 percent target share attached to top-of-league per-target efficiency in a Green Bay offense with middling implied totals, best deployed as a bench receiver you start when the matchup calls for chunk plays.",
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    "news": {
      "digest": "Christian Watson good to go for Week 4 — There was some public concern when Watson seemed to favor one of his legs towards the end of last Thursday's game, but he is not listed on Green Bay's injury report for Week 4 and should be a full go against the Buccaneers. He remains a must-start fantasy option as often as he is healthy and on the field moving forward.",
      "latest_at": "2026-09-30T21:14:44+00:00",
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  }
}

Use this source carefully