{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/8167","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:16:23.976562+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"8167","name":"Christian Watson","team":"GB","pos":"WR","age":27,"exp":4,"injury":"Questionable","rookie":false,"value":56.6,"ros_ppg":14.6,"games_left":8,"projection":{"ros_ppg":14.601125000000001,"source":"sleeper_future","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[9,10,12,13,14,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[],"remaining_games":8},"proj":168,"adp":66.3,"adp_pr":29,"ly":{"pts":114.9,"g":10,"through_week":17,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":1.0,"rushing_yards":3.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":55.0,"receptions":35.0,"receiving_yards":611.0,"receiving_tds":6.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":0.0,"receiving_first_downs":28.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":19.2,"ppg":11.49,"ypc":3.0,"ypt":11.1,"ypr":17.5,"catch_pct":63.6,"total_yd":614.0,"ypg":61.4,"touches":36.0,"first_downs":28.0,"xfp":91.6,"xfp_diff":23.3,"xfp_through_week":17,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":67.7,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":1.97,"rec_avg_cushion":6.27,"rec_adot":17.65,"rec_air_share":24.1,"rec_yac_above_exp":0.8,"rec_catch_pct":63.64,"rec_drops":1.0,"rec_broken_tackles":0.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":0.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":1.8},"ytd":{"pts":125.8,"g":8,"through_week":8,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":0.0,"rushing_yards":0.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":66.0,"receptions":42.0,"receiving_yards":708.0,"receiving_tds":6.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":0.0,"receiving_first_downs":26.0,"fumbles_lost":1.0,"tgt_share":21.9,"ppg":15.72,"ypc":null,"ypt":10.7,"ypr":16.9,"catch_pct":63.6,"total_yd":708.0,"ypg":88.5,"touches":42.0,"first_downs":26.0,"xfp":99.5,"xfp_diff":28.3,"xfp_through_week":8,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":76.5,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":2.38,"rec_avg_cushion":6.84,"rec_adot":13.79,"rec_air_share":31.86,"rec_yac_above_exp":1.52,"rec_catch_pct":63.64,"rec_drops":3.0,"rec_broken_tackles":0.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":null,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":4.5}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"8167","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:16:24.013288+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"current","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"At a 17.6-yard average depth of target, second-deepest among all qualified receivers, Watson runs the most extreme route profile in this ADP range. Ten games in 2025 produced 11.5 points per game, an 87th-percentile rate, on just 5.5 targets a game, because nearly every target was maximal: 11.1 yards per target and 17.5 per catch both sat in the 97th percentile, with almost no drops. The separation figure, 2.0 yards and third-worst at the position, tells you how the wins happen, downfield in tight coverage, the least stable way to score fantasy points week to week. He also beat his usage-based expectation by 23 points, a 92nd-percentile overshoot of the sort that usually shrinks. Consensus projects 163 points at WR32, and sixth-round drafters price him WR30, nearly on top of it, so nobody is fooling themselves about the volume. What the pick buys is deliberate variance, a 12.3 percent target share attached to top-of-league per-target efficiency in a Green Bay offense with middling implied totals, best deployed as a bench receiver you start when the matchup calls for chunk plays.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"Christian Watson good to go for Week 4 — There was some public concern when Watson seemed to favor one of his legs towards the end of last Thursday's game, but he is not listed on Green Bay's injury report for Week 4 and should be a full go against the Buccaneers. He remains a must-start fantasy option as often as he is healthy and on the field moving forward.","latest_at":"2026-09-30T21:14:44+00:00","updated_at":"2026-10-01T19:00:23.298938+00:00","llm_sentiment":1,"llm_injury_trajectory":1,"llm_severity":0,"llm_weeks_out":null,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"good to go; not listed on injury report; must-start fantasy option; full go; favor one of his legs","llm_role_change":0,"llm_usage_outlook":0,"llm_team_context":0,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-10-01T19:21:05.712342+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":{"status":"questionable","exp_miss_next6":1.6780349575271793,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"},"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"questionable","exp_miss_next6":1.6780349575271793,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"}}}