Player sourcebook / WR · IND
Alec Pierce
Read as Markdown · JSON · Interactive board
- Season / week
- 2026 / 8
- Scoring
- HALF · 12 teams · 1 QB
- Source freshness
- partial
- Observed season stats
- Through week 8; complete through week 7. The latest week may be partial.
Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt.
- outcomes
- ready
Captured 2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00; complete through week 7 - season projection
- preseason prior
Captured Unknown - draft adp
- preseason context
Captured Unknown - advanced stats
- coverage not verified
Captured Unknown
Model version and retrieval details
Model generated: 2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00. Model generation time does not establish source freshness.
Model version: trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1
Data version: board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8
Retrieved 2026-11-01T01:38:18.030517+00:00. This is the page retrieval time, not a source update.
Scroll the table to see every column.
| Player | Pos | Team | Observed points/game | Games played | Estimated future points/game | Trade value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Pierce | WR | IND | 4.85 | 2 | 7.43 | 0 |
Future projection context
These estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. They do not identify who to start this week; use your league's lineup tool for that decision.
- Forecast source
- Captured Sleeper projections plus model fallback
- Forecast captured
- 2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00
- Unstarted games through Week 17
- 9
- Weeks with provider forecasts
- 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17
- Weeks using model fallback
- 8, 9, 10
Draft context
Historical context, not a weekly ranking or remaining-season forecast.
- Full-season preseason projection
- 164
- Draft average position
- 95.2
Observed production
Observed statistics are separate from model estimates. A missing season block means unavailable data.
This season
- Fantasy points
- 9.7
- Games played
- 2
- Observed through week
- 2
- passing yards
- 0
- passing tds
- 0
- interceptions
- 0
- carries
- 0
- rushing yards
- 0
- rushing tds
- 0
- targets
- 7
- receptions
- 5
- receiving yards
- 72
- receiving tds
- 0
- passing first downs
- 0
- rushing first downs
- 0
- receiving first downs
- 5
- fumbles lost
- 0
- Target share in observed games (%)
- 11.9
- Fantasy points per game
- 4.85
- Yards per carry
- Unavailable
- Yards per target
- 10.3
- Yards per reception
- 14.4
- Catch rate (%)
- 71.4
- Total yards
- 72
- Yards per game
- 36
- touches
- 5
- first downs
- 5
- Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
- 11.5
- Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
- -1.8
- Opportunity observed through week
- 2
- Opportunity coverage
- complete
Previous season
- Fantasy points
- 159.8
- Games played
- 15
- Observed through week
- 18
- passing yards
- 0
- passing tds
- 0
- interceptions
- 0
- carries
- 0
- rushing yards
- 0
- rushing tds
- 0
- targets
- 84
- receptions
- 47
- receiving yards
- 1,003
- receiving tds
- 6
- passing first downs
- 0
- rushing first downs
- 0
- receiving first downs
- 41
- fumbles lost
- 0
- Target share in observed games (%)
- 18
- Fantasy points per game
- 10.65
- Yards per carry
- Unavailable
- Yards per target
- 11.9
- Yards per reception
- 21.3
- Catch rate (%)
- 56
- Total yards
- 1,003
- Yards per game
- 66.9
- touches
- 47
- first downs
- 41
- Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
- 142.6
- Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
- 17.2
- Opportunity observed through week
- 18
- Opportunity coverage
- complete
This season: advanced statistics
- Snap share (%)
- 42.5
- Time to throw (seconds)
- Unavailable
- Average depth of pass target (yards)
- Unavailable
- pass aggressiveness
- Unavailable
- Completion percentage above expectation
- Unavailable
- pass air to sticks
- Unavailable
- pass rating
- Unavailable
- rush stacked box pct
- Unavailable
- rush time to los
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
- Unavailable
- rush efficiency
- Unavailable
- rush pct over expected
- Unavailable
- rec avg separation
- Unavailable
- rec avg cushion
- Unavailable
- Average depth of receiving target (yards)
- Unavailable
- rec air share
- Unavailable
- Receiving yards after catch above expectation
- Unavailable
- rec catch pct
- Unavailable
- rec drops
- 0
- rec broken tackles
- 0
- Rushing yards before contact per attempt
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards after contact per attempt
- Unavailable
- rush broken tackles
- Unavailable
- pass pressured pct
- Unavailable
- pass bad throw pct
- Unavailable
- rec drop pct
- 0
Previous season: advanced statistics
- Snap share (%)
- 85.9
- Time to throw (seconds)
- Unavailable
- Average depth of pass target (yards)
- Unavailable
- pass aggressiveness
- Unavailable
- Completion percentage above expectation
- Unavailable
- pass air to sticks
- Unavailable
- pass rating
- Unavailable
- rush stacked box pct
- Unavailable
- rush time to los
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
- Unavailable
- rush efficiency
- Unavailable
- rush pct over expected
- Unavailable
- rec avg separation
- 2.07
- rec avg cushion
- 6.27
- Average depth of receiving target (yards)
- 19.09
- rec air share
- 37.34
- Receiving yards after catch above expectation
- 1.29
- rec catch pct
- 55.95
- rec drops
- 1
- rec broken tackles
- 1
- Rushing yards before contact per attempt
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards after contact per attempt
- Unavailable
- rush broken tackles
- Unavailable
- pass pressured pct
- Unavailable
- pass bad throw pct
- Unavailable
- rec drop pct
- 1.2
Player narrative and news
Generated narrative is context, not a verified injury forecast or a weekly recommendation. Inspect its own dates before using it.
Write-up generated: 2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00
Latest stored news context
{
"digest": "Alec Pierce (heel) to be placed on IR — This was an expected move by the Colts. Pierce is attempting to rehab his heel injury instead of undergoing surgery. The big-play wide receiver will miss at least four weeks, and probably longer. Veteran receiver Darius Slayton was signed by the Colts earier this week. ",
"latest_at": "2026-09-23T15:40:26+00:00",
"updated_at": "2026-09-23T19:00:30.621499+00:00",
"llm_sentiment": -1,
"llm_injury_trajectory": -1,
"llm_severity": 2,
"llm_weeks_out": 5.0,
"llm_offfield_risk": 0,
"llm_key_phrases": "placed on ir; miss at least four weeks; rehab his heel injury; veteran receiver darius slayton",
"llm_role_change": 0,
"llm_usage_outlook": -1,
"llm_team_context": 0,
"llm_relevance": 0.9,
"llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-24T09:24:54.639065+00:00",
"llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
"inference_status": "current"
}Profile freshness: {"writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "current", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."}
Stored injury context
{
"status": "ir",
"exp_miss_next6": 4.060832407848115,
"as_of": "2026-10-31",
"source": "curves-v1"
}Complete source evidence
{
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"season": 2026,
"week": 8,
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"qb": 1,
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"expected_week": 8,
"warnings": [],
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"draft_adp": {
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"advanced_stats": {
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"captured_at": null
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},
"outcome_readiness": {
"completed_week": 7,
"fresh": true,
"checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00",
"status": "ready"
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"valuation_context": {
"phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback",
"fallback_phase": "in_season_blend",
"fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7,
"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true,
"advanced_stats_priced": false,
"injury_outlook": "annotation_only",
"remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games"
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"value_locked": null,
"ytd_through_week": 8,
"ytd_complete_through_week": 7,
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"limitations": [
"Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.",
"generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.",
"Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.",
"Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.",
"League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."
],
"metric_definitions": {
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"adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.",
"ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.",
"tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.",
"ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.",
"projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.",
"value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.",
"xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.",
"xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."
},
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"player": {
"sleeper_id": "8142",
"name": "Alec Pierce",
"team": "IND",
"pos": "WR",
"age": 26,
"exp": 4,
"injury": "IR",
"rookie": false,
"value": 0.0,
"ros_ppg": 7.43,
"games_left": 9,
"projection": {
"ros_ppg": 7.433557559175837,
"source": "sleeper_future+fallback",
"captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00",
"covered_weeks": [
11,
12,
14,
15,
16,
17
],
"missing_weeks": [
8,
9,
10
],
"remaining_games": 9
},
"proj": 164,
"adp": 95.2,
"adp_pr": 39,
"ly": {
"pts": 159.8,
"g": 15,
"through_week": 18,
"passing_yards": 0.0,
"passing_tds": 0.0,
"interceptions": 0.0,
"carries": 0.0,
"rushing_yards": 0.0,
"rushing_tds": 0.0,
"targets": 84.0,
"receptions": 47.0,
"receiving_yards": 1003.0,
"receiving_tds": 6.0,
"passing_first_downs": 0.0,
"rushing_first_downs": 0.0,
"receiving_first_downs": 41.0,
"fumbles_lost": 0.0,
"tgt_share": 18.0,
"ppg": 10.65,
"ypc": null,
"ypt": 11.9,
"ypr": 21.3,
"catch_pct": 56.0,
"total_yd": 1003.0,
"ypg": 66.9,
"touches": 47.0,
"first_downs": 41.0,
"xfp": 142.6,
"xfp_diff": 17.2,
"xfp_through_week": 18,
"xfp_coverage": "complete"
},
"adv": {
"snap_pct": 85.9,
"pass_time_to_throw": null,
"pass_adot": null,
"pass_aggressiveness": null,
"pass_cpoe": null,
"pass_air_to_sticks": null,
"pass_rating": null,
"rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
"rush_time_to_los": null,
"rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
"rush_efficiency": null,
"rush_pct_over_expected": null,
"rec_avg_separation": 2.07,
"rec_avg_cushion": 6.27,
"rec_adot": 19.09,
"rec_air_share": 37.34,
"rec_yac_above_exp": 1.29,
"rec_catch_pct": 55.95,
"rec_drops": 1.0,
"rec_broken_tackles": 1.0,
"rush_ybc_att": null,
"rush_yac_att": null,
"rush_broken_tackles": null,
"pass_pressured_pct": null,
"pass_bad_throw_pct": null,
"rec_drop_pct": 1.2
},
"ytd": {
"pts": 9.7,
"g": 2,
"through_week": 2,
"passing_yards": 0.0,
"passing_tds": 0.0,
"interceptions": 0.0,
"carries": 0.0,
"rushing_yards": 0.0,
"rushing_tds": 0.0,
"targets": 7.0,
"receptions": 5.0,
"receiving_yards": 72.0,
"receiving_tds": 0.0,
"passing_first_downs": 0.0,
"rushing_first_downs": 0.0,
"receiving_first_downs": 5.0,
"fumbles_lost": 0.0,
"tgt_share": 11.9,
"ppg": 4.85,
"ypc": null,
"ypt": 10.3,
"ypr": 14.4,
"catch_pct": 71.4,
"total_yd": 72.0,
"ypg": 36.0,
"touches": 5.0,
"first_downs": 5.0,
"xfp": 11.5,
"xfp_diff": -1.8,
"xfp_through_week": 2,
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"adv_ytd": {
"snap_pct": 42.5,
"pass_time_to_throw": null,
"pass_adot": null,
"pass_aggressiveness": null,
"pass_cpoe": null,
"pass_air_to_sticks": null,
"pass_rating": null,
"rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
"rush_time_to_los": null,
"rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
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"rec_avg_separation": null,
"rec_avg_cushion": null,
"rec_adot": null,
"rec_air_share": null,
"rec_yac_above_exp": null,
"rec_catch_pct": null,
"rec_drops": 0.0,
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"rush_ybc_att": null,
"rush_yac_att": null,
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"pass_pressured_pct": null,
"pass_bad_throw_pct": null,
"rec_drop_pct": 0.0
}
},
"profile": {
"sleeper_id": "8142",
"season": 2026,
"as_of": "2026-11-01T01:38:18.047853+00:00",
"freshness": {
"writeup": "preseason_context",
"news": "stale",
"news_inference": "current",
"injury_outlook": "current",
"note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."
},
"writeup": "Alec Pierce turned 84 targets into 1,003 yards last season, leading all qualified receivers at 21.3 yards per catch on the deepest aDOT in the sample at 19.1 yards. The profile is extreme in every direction: a 93rd-percentile air-yards share, a tiny 1.2 percent drop rate, 86th-percentile YAC over expected, and average separation in the 5th percentile, the signature of a contested deep-ball diet that drags his catch rate down to 56 percent. He also beat his usage-based expectation by 17 points, an 89th-percentile gap of the kind that usually shrinks, so part of last year's 10.7 points per game was deep balls dropping in at a rate you shouldn't bank on. The interesting part is that nobody is asking you to pay for a repeat. The consensus projection scores him WR24 at 175 points while his ADP sits at pick 82 and WR36 in half-PPR, a full tier of discount, with a questionable tag that carries no expected missed time in the outlook. His 8.8-point median week against the 10.7 average tells you what owning him feels like, long quiet stretches punctuated by weeks that win a matchup by themselves.",
"writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00",
"news": {
"digest": "Alec Pierce (heel) to be placed on IR — This was an expected move by the Colts. Pierce is attempting to rehab his heel injury instead of undergoing surgery. The big-play wide receiver will miss at least four weeks, and probably longer. Veteran receiver Darius Slayton was signed by the Colts earier this week. ",
"latest_at": "2026-09-23T15:40:26+00:00",
"updated_at": "2026-09-23T19:00:30.621499+00:00",
"llm_sentiment": -1,
"llm_injury_trajectory": -1,
"llm_severity": 2,
"llm_weeks_out": 5.0,
"llm_offfield_risk": 0,
"llm_key_phrases": "placed on ir; miss at least four weeks; rehab his heel injury; veteran receiver darius slayton",
"llm_role_change": 0,
"llm_usage_outlook": -1,
"llm_team_context": 0,
"llm_relevance": 0.9,
"llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-24T09:24:54.639065+00:00",
"llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
"inference_status": "current"
},
"injury_outlook": {
"status": "ir",
"exp_miss_next6": 4.060832407848115,
"as_of": "2026-10-31",
"source": "curves-v1"
},
"injury_outlook_last_captured": {
"status": "ir",
"exp_miss_next6": 4.060832407848115,
"as_of": "2026-10-31",
"source": "curves-v1"
}
}
}Use this source carefully
- Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.
- generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.
- Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.
- Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.
- League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring.