FOOTBALLQUANTS

Player sourcebook / WR · IND

Alec Pierce

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Season / week
2026 / 8
Scoring
HALF · 12 teams · 1 QB
Source freshness
partial
Observed season stats
Through week 8; complete through week 7. The latest week may be partial.

Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt.

outcomes
ready
Captured 2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00; complete through week 7
season projection
preseason prior
Captured Unknown
draft adp
preseason context
Captured Unknown
advanced stats
coverage not verified
Captured Unknown
Model version and retrieval details

Model generated: 2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00. Model generation time does not establish source freshness.

Model version: trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1

Data version: board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8

Retrieved 2026-11-01T01:38:18.030517+00:00. This is the page retrieval time, not a source update.

Scroll the table to see every column.

Alphabetical player research. Observed points use posted games; future estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. Open a player for forecast dates and missing weeks. Trade values are model units.
PlayerPosTeamObserved points/gameGames playedEstimated future points/gameTrade value
Alec Pierce WRIND 4.8527.430

Future projection context

These estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. They do not identify who to start this week; use your league's lineup tool for that decision.

Forecast source
Captured Sleeper projections plus model fallback
Forecast captured
2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00
Unstarted games through Week 17
9
Weeks with provider forecasts
11, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17
Weeks using model fallback
8, 9, 10

Draft context

Historical context, not a weekly ranking or remaining-season forecast.

Full-season preseason projection
164
Draft average position
95.2

Observed production

Observed statistics are separate from model estimates. A missing season block means unavailable data.

This season

Fantasy points
9.7
Games played
2
Observed through week
2
passing yards
0
passing tds
0
interceptions
0
carries
0
rushing yards
0
rushing tds
0
targets
7
receptions
5
receiving yards
72
receiving tds
0
passing first downs
0
rushing first downs
0
receiving first downs
5
fumbles lost
0
Target share in observed games (%)
11.9
Fantasy points per game
4.85
Yards per carry
Unavailable
Yards per target
10.3
Yards per reception
14.4
Catch rate (%)
71.4
Total yards
72
Yards per game
36
touches
5
first downs
5
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
11.5
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
-1.8
Opportunity observed through week
2
Opportunity coverage
complete

Previous season

Fantasy points
159.8
Games played
15
Observed through week
18
passing yards
0
passing tds
0
interceptions
0
carries
0
rushing yards
0
rushing tds
0
targets
84
receptions
47
receiving yards
1,003
receiving tds
6
passing first downs
0
rushing first downs
0
receiving first downs
41
fumbles lost
0
Target share in observed games (%)
18
Fantasy points per game
10.65
Yards per carry
Unavailable
Yards per target
11.9
Yards per reception
21.3
Catch rate (%)
56
Total yards
1,003
Yards per game
66.9
touches
47
first downs
41
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
142.6
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
17.2
Opportunity observed through week
18
Opportunity coverage
complete

This season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
42.5
Time to throw (seconds)
Unavailable
Average depth of pass target (yards)
Unavailable
pass aggressiveness
Unavailable
Completion percentage above expectation
Unavailable
pass air to sticks
Unavailable
pass rating
Unavailable
rush stacked box pct
Unavailable
rush time to los
Unavailable
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
Unavailable
rush efficiency
Unavailable
rush pct over expected
Unavailable
rec avg separation
Unavailable
rec avg cushion
Unavailable
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
Unavailable
rec air share
Unavailable
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
Unavailable
rec catch pct
Unavailable
rec drops
0
rec broken tackles
0
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
Unavailable
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
Unavailable
rush broken tackles
Unavailable
pass pressured pct
Unavailable
pass bad throw pct
Unavailable
rec drop pct
0

Previous season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
85.9
Time to throw (seconds)
Unavailable
Average depth of pass target (yards)
Unavailable
pass aggressiveness
Unavailable
Completion percentage above expectation
Unavailable
pass air to sticks
Unavailable
pass rating
Unavailable
rush stacked box pct
Unavailable
rush time to los
Unavailable
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
Unavailable
rush efficiency
Unavailable
rush pct over expected
Unavailable
rec avg separation
2.07
rec avg cushion
6.27
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
19.09
rec air share
37.34
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
1.29
rec catch pct
55.95
rec drops
1
rec broken tackles
1
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
Unavailable
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
Unavailable
rush broken tackles
Unavailable
pass pressured pct
Unavailable
pass bad throw pct
Unavailable
rec drop pct
1.2

Player narrative and news

Generated narrative is context, not a verified injury forecast or a weekly recommendation. Inspect its own dates before using it.

Write-up generated: 2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00

Alec Pierce turned 84 targets into 1,003 yards last season, leading all qualified receivers at 21.3 yards per catch on the deepest aDOT in the sample at 19.1 yards. The profile is extreme in every direction: a 93rd-percentile air-yards share, a tiny 1.2 percent drop rate, 86th-percentile YAC over expected, and average separation in the 5th percentile, the signature of a contested deep-ball diet that drags his catch rate down to 56 percent. He also beat his usage-based expectation by 17 points, an 89th-percentile gap of the kind that usually shrinks, so part of last year's 10.7 points per game was deep balls dropping in at a rate you shouldn't bank on. The interesting part is that nobody is asking you to pay for a repeat. The consensus projection scores him WR24 at 175 points while his ADP sits at pick 82 and WR36 in half-PPR, a full tier of discount, with a questionable tag that carries no expected missed time in the outlook. His 8.8-point median week against the 10.7 average tells you what owning him feels like, long quiet stretches punctuated by weeks that win a matchup by themselves.

Latest stored news context

{
  "digest": "Alec Pierce (heel) to be placed on IR — This was an expected move by the Colts. Pierce is attempting to rehab his heel injury instead of undergoing surgery. The big-play wide receiver will miss at least four weeks, and probably longer. Veteran receiver Darius Slayton was signed by the Colts earier this week. ",
  "latest_at": "2026-09-23T15:40:26+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-09-23T19:00:30.621499+00:00",
  "llm_sentiment": -1,
  "llm_injury_trajectory": -1,
  "llm_severity": 2,
  "llm_weeks_out": 5.0,
  "llm_offfield_risk": 0,
  "llm_key_phrases": "placed on ir; miss at least four weeks; rehab his heel injury; veteran receiver darius slayton",
  "llm_role_change": 0,
  "llm_usage_outlook": -1,
  "llm_team_context": 0,
  "llm_relevance": 0.9,
  "llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-24T09:24:54.639065+00:00",
  "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
  "inference_status": "current"
}

Profile freshness: {"writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "current", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."}

Stored injury context

{
  "status": "ir",
  "exp_miss_next6": 4.060832407848115,
  "as_of": "2026-10-31",
  "source": "curves-v1"
}
Complete source evidence
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  "valuation_context": {
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    "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.",
    "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."
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  "player": {
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    "name": "Alec Pierce",
    "team": "IND",
    "pos": "WR",
    "age": 26,
    "exp": 4,
    "injury": "IR",
    "rookie": false,
    "value": 0.0,
    "ros_ppg": 7.43,
    "games_left": 9,
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      "carries": 0.0,
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      "targets": 84.0,
      "receptions": 47.0,
      "receiving_yards": 1003.0,
      "receiving_tds": 6.0,
      "passing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "rushing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 41.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 0.0,
      "tgt_share": 18.0,
      "ppg": 10.65,
      "ypc": null,
      "ypt": 11.9,
      "ypr": 21.3,
      "catch_pct": 56.0,
      "total_yd": 1003.0,
      "ypg": 66.9,
      "touches": 47.0,
      "first_downs": 41.0,
      "xfp": 142.6,
      "xfp_diff": 17.2,
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      "snap_pct": 85.9,
      "pass_time_to_throw": null,
      "pass_adot": null,
      "pass_aggressiveness": null,
      "pass_cpoe": null,
      "pass_air_to_sticks": null,
      "pass_rating": null,
      "rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
      "rush_time_to_los": null,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
      "rush_efficiency": null,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": null,
      "rec_avg_separation": 2.07,
      "rec_avg_cushion": 6.27,
      "rec_adot": 19.09,
      "rec_air_share": 37.34,
      "rec_yac_above_exp": 1.29,
      "rec_catch_pct": 55.95,
      "rec_drops": 1.0,
      "rec_broken_tackles": 1.0,
      "rush_ybc_att": null,
      "rush_yac_att": null,
      "rush_broken_tackles": null,
      "pass_pressured_pct": null,
      "pass_bad_throw_pct": null,
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    "writeup": "Alec Pierce turned 84 targets into 1,003 yards last season, leading all qualified receivers at 21.3 yards per catch on the deepest aDOT in the sample at 19.1 yards. The profile is extreme in every direction: a 93rd-percentile air-yards share, a tiny 1.2 percent drop rate, 86th-percentile YAC over expected, and average separation in the 5th percentile, the signature of a contested deep-ball diet that drags his catch rate down to 56 percent. He also beat his usage-based expectation by 17 points, an 89th-percentile gap of the kind that usually shrinks, so part of last year's 10.7 points per game was deep balls dropping in at a rate you shouldn't bank on. The interesting part is that nobody is asking you to pay for a repeat. The consensus projection scores him WR24 at 175 points while his ADP sits at pick 82 and WR36 in half-PPR, a full tier of discount, with a questionable tag that carries no expected missed time in the outlook. His 8.8-point median week against the 10.7 average tells you what owning him feels like, long quiet stretches punctuated by weeks that win a matchup by themselves.",
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    "news": {
      "digest": "Alec Pierce (heel) to be placed on IR — This was an expected move by the Colts. Pierce is attempting to rehab his heel injury instead of undergoing surgery. The big-play wide receiver will miss at least four weeks, and probably longer. Veteran receiver Darius Slayton was signed by the Colts earier this week. ",
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      "llm_severity": 2,
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      "llm_offfield_risk": 0,
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      "llm_role_change": 0,
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  }
}

Use this source carefully