# Alec Pierce — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/8142 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/8142", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:24:51.284704+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "8142", "name": "Alec Pierce", "team": "IND", "pos": "WR", "age": 26, "exp": 4, "injury": "IR", "rookie": false, "value": 0.0, "ros_ppg": 7.43, "games_left": 9, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 7.433557559175837, "source": "sleeper_future+fallback", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [ 8, 9, 10 ], "remaining_games": 9 }, "proj": 164, "adp": 95.2, "adp_pr": 39, "ly": { "pts": 159.8, "g": 15, "through_week": 18, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "rushing_yards": 0.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 84.0, "receptions": 47.0, "receiving_yards": 1003.0, "receiving_tds": 6.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 41.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 18.0, "ppg": 10.65, "ypc": null, "ypt": 11.9, "ypr": 21.3, "catch_pct": 56.0, "total_yd": 1003.0, "ypg": 66.9, "touches": 47.0, "first_downs": 41.0, "xfp": 142.6, "xfp_diff": 17.2, "xfp_through_week": 18, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 85.9, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 2.07, "rec_avg_cushion": 6.27, "rec_adot": 19.09, "rec_air_share": 37.34, "rec_yac_above_exp": 1.29, "rec_catch_pct": 55.95, "rec_drops": 1.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 1.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": null, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 1.2 }, "ytd": { "pts": 9.7, "g": 2, "through_week": 2, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "rushing_yards": 0.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 7.0, "receptions": 5.0, "receiving_yards": 72.0, "receiving_tds": 0.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 5.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 11.9, "ppg": 4.85, "ypc": null, "ypt": 10.3, "ypr": 14.4, "catch_pct": 71.4, "total_yd": 72.0, "ypg": 36.0, "touches": 5.0, "first_downs": 5.0, "xfp": 11.5, "xfp_diff": -1.8, "xfp_through_week": 2, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 42.5, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": 0.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": null, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 0.0 } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "8142", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:24:51.287030+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "current", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Alec Pierce turned 84 targets into 1,003 yards last season, leading all qualified receivers at 21.3 yards per catch on the deepest aDOT in the sample at 19.1 yards. The profile is extreme in every direction: a 93rd-percentile air-yards share, a tiny 1.2 percent drop rate, 86th-percentile YAC over expected, and average separation in the 5th percentile, the signature of a contested deep-ball diet that drags his catch rate down to 56 percent. He also beat his usage-based expectation by 17 points, an 89th-percentile gap of the kind that usually shrinks, so part of last year's 10.7 points per game was deep balls dropping in at a rate you shouldn't bank on. The interesting part is that nobody is asking you to pay for a repeat. The consensus projection scores him WR24 at 175 points while his ADP sits at pick 82 and WR36 in half-PPR, a full tier of discount, with a questionable tag that carries no expected missed time in the outlook. His 8.8-point median week against the 10.7 average tells you what owning him feels like, long quiet stretches punctuated by weeks that win a matchup by themselves.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Alec Pierce (heel) to be placed on IR — This was an expected move by the Colts. Pierce is attempting to rehab his heel injury instead of undergoing surgery. The big-play wide receiver will miss at least four weeks, and probably longer. Veteran receiver Darius Slayton was signed by the Colts earier this week. ", "latest_at": "2026-09-23T15:40:26+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-23T19:00:30.621499+00:00", "llm_sentiment": -1, "llm_injury_trajectory": -1, "llm_severity": 2, "llm_weeks_out": 5.0, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "placed on ir; miss at least four weeks; rehab his heel injury; veteran receiver darius slayton", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": -1, "llm_team_context": 0, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-24T09:24:54.639065+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": { "status": "ir", "exp_miss_next6": 4.060832407848115, "as_of": "2026-10-31", "source": "curves-v1" }, "injury_outlook_last_captured": { "status": "ir", "exp_miss_next6": 4.060832407848115, "as_of": "2026-10-31", "source": "curves-v1" } } } ```