FOOTBALLQUANTS

Player sourcebook / WR · DEN

Jaylen Waddle

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Season / week
2026 / 8
Scoring
HALF · 12 teams · 1 QB
Source freshness
partial
Observed season stats
Through week 8; complete through week 7. The latest week may be partial.

Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt.

outcomes
ready
Captured 2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00; complete through week 7
season projection
preseason prior
Captured Unknown
draft adp
preseason context
Captured Unknown
advanced stats
coverage not verified
Captured Unknown
Model version and retrieval details

Model generated: 2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00. Model generation time does not establish source freshness.

Model version: trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1

Data version: board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8

Retrieved 2026-11-01T01:38:19.484625+00:00. This is the page retrieval time, not a source update.

Scroll the table to see every column.

Alphabetical player research. Observed points use posted games; future estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. Open a player for forecast dates and missing weeks. Trade values are model units.
PlayerPosTeamObserved points/gameGames playedEstimated future points/gameTrade value
Jaylen Waddle WRDEN 6.99710.1823.8

Future projection context

These estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. They do not identify who to start this week; use your league's lineup tool for that decision.

Forecast source
Captured Sleeper future projections
Forecast captured
2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00
Unstarted games through Week 17
9
Weeks with provider forecasts
8, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
Weeks using model fallback
None recorded

Draft context

Historical context, not a weekly ranking or remaining-season forecast.

Full-season preseason projection
173
Draft average position
46.6

Observed production

Observed statistics are separate from model estimates. A missing season block means unavailable data.

This season

Fantasy points
48.9
Games played
7
Observed through week
7
passing yards
0
passing tds
0
interceptions
0
carries
2
rushing yards
23
rushing tds
0
targets
45
receptions
26
receiving yards
276
receiving tds
1
passing first downs
0
rushing first downs
1
receiving first downs
11
fumbles lost
0
Target share in observed games (%)
23
Fantasy points per game
6.99
Yards per carry
11.5
Yards per target
6.1
Yards per reception
10.6
Catch rate (%)
57.8
Total yards
299
Yards per game
42.7
touches
28
first downs
12
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
59.7
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
-10.8
Opportunity observed through week
7
Opportunity coverage
complete

Previous season

Fantasy points
162.1
Games played
16
Observed through week
17
passing yards
8
passing tds
0
interceptions
0
carries
2
rushing yards
28
rushing tds
0
targets
100
receptions
64
receiving yards
910
receiving tds
6
passing first downs
0
rushing first downs
1
receiving first downs
48
fumbles lost
0
Target share in observed games (%)
22.8
Fantasy points per game
10.13
Yards per carry
14
Yards per target
9.1
Yards per reception
14.2
Catch rate (%)
64
Total yards
946
Yards per game
59.1
touches
66
first downs
49
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
150.8
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
11
Opportunity observed through week
17
Opportunity coverage
complete

This season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
66.1
Time to throw (seconds)
Unavailable
Average depth of pass target (yards)
Unavailable
pass aggressiveness
Unavailable
Completion percentage above expectation
Unavailable
pass air to sticks
Unavailable
pass rating
Unavailable
rush stacked box pct
Unavailable
rush time to los
Unavailable
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
Unavailable
rush efficiency
Unavailable
rush pct over expected
Unavailable
rec avg separation
3.56
rec avg cushion
7.16
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
9.95
rec air share
35.63
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
-0.3
rec catch pct
57.78
rec drops
2
rec broken tackles
1
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
Unavailable
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
Unavailable
rush broken tackles
1
pass pressured pct
Unavailable
pass bad throw pct
Unavailable
rec drop pct
4.4

Previous season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
77.6
Time to throw (seconds)
Unavailable
Average depth of pass target (yards)
Unavailable
pass aggressiveness
Unavailable
Completion percentage above expectation
Unavailable
pass air to sticks
Unavailable
pass rating
Unavailable
rush stacked box pct
Unavailable
rush time to los
Unavailable
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
Unavailable
rush efficiency
Unavailable
rush pct over expected
Unavailable
rec avg separation
2.72
rec avg cushion
6.19
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
12.29
rec air share
38.75
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
0.15
rec catch pct
64
rec drops
5
rec broken tackles
4
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
Unavailable
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
Unavailable
rush broken tackles
0
pass pressured pct
Unavailable
pass bad throw pct
Unavailable
rec drop pct
5

Player narrative and news

Generated narrative is context, not a verified injury forecast or a weekly recommendation. Inspect its own dates before using it.

Write-up generated: 2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00

Waddle's 2025 reads stronger than its box score: he drew a 38.7 percent air-yards share, fourth among qualified wideouts, held a 22 percent target share, produced 9.1 yards per target, and beat his usage-based expectation by 11 points. All of it was earned in Miami, and Miami is the part that changed. Denver's early implied totals average 21.3 points, 25th in the league, with a Week 1 trip to Kansas City where Vegas hangs 20 on the Broncos. The consensus votes with the skeptics at 172 points, WR27, while standard-format drafters keep paying WR18, a full tier above, effectively treating the air-yards crown as portable. His underlying athletic markers were ordinary last year, separation and YAC over expected both mid-pack or worse, so the profile leans on depth of target rather than after-catch juice, which makes the role even more scheme-dependent. If the new offense features him the same way, the projection will look timid, and the current price forces you to pay for that outcome in July.

Latest stored news context

{
  "digest": "Jaylen Waddle (chest) listed questionable Sunday  — Waddle got in a pair of limited practices to end the week. He will be a borderline WR2/WR3 play for fantasy managers if he is cleared. ",
  "latest_at": "2026-10-30T21:11:46+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-31T23:04:06.851848+00:00",
  "llm_sentiment": -1,
  "llm_injury_trajectory": 1,
  "llm_severity": 1,
  "llm_weeks_out": 0.5,
  "llm_offfield_risk": 0,
  "llm_key_phrases": "questionable sunday; limited practices; borderline wr2 wr3; chest injury",
  "llm_role_change": 0,
  "llm_usage_outlook": -1,
  "llm_team_context": 0,
  "llm_relevance": 0.9,
  "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-31T23:19:13.037319+00:00",
  "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
  "inference_status": "current"
}

Profile freshness: {"writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "current", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "current", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."}

Stored injury context

{
  "status": "questionable",
  "exp_miss_next6": 1.6780349575271793,
  "as_of": "2026-10-31",
  "source": "curves-v1"
}
Complete source evidence
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        "completed_through_week": 7
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      "draft_adp": {
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      "advanced_stats": {
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        "captured_at": null
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  "outcome_readiness": {
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    "fresh": true,
    "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00",
    "status": "ready"
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  "valuation_context": {
    "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback",
    "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend",
    "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7,
    "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true,
    "advanced_stats_priced": false,
    "injury_outlook": "annotation_only",
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  "value_locked": null,
  "ytd_through_week": 8,
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    "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.",
    "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.",
    "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.",
    "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."
  ],
  "metric_definitions": {
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    "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.",
    "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.",
    "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.",
    "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.",
    "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.",
    "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.",
    "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.",
    "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."
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  "player": {
    "sleeper_id": "7526",
    "name": "Jaylen Waddle",
    "team": "DEN",
    "pos": "WR",
    "age": 27,
    "exp": 5,
    "injury": "Questionable",
    "rookie": false,
    "value": 23.8,
    "ros_ppg": 10.18,
    "games_left": 9,
    "projection": {
      "ros_ppg": 10.178,
      "source": "sleeper_future",
      "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00",
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        17
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    },
    "proj": 173,
    "adp": 46.6,
    "adp_pr": 21,
    "ly": {
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      "g": 16,
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      "passing_yards": 8.0,
      "passing_tds": 0.0,
      "interceptions": 0.0,
      "carries": 2.0,
      "rushing_yards": 28.0,
      "rushing_tds": 0.0,
      "targets": 100.0,
      "receptions": 64.0,
      "receiving_yards": 910.0,
      "receiving_tds": 6.0,
      "passing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "rushing_first_downs": 1.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 48.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 0.0,
      "tgt_share": 22.8,
      "ppg": 10.13,
      "ypc": 14.0,
      "ypt": 9.1,
      "ypr": 14.2,
      "catch_pct": 64.0,
      "total_yd": 946.0,
      "ypg": 59.1,
      "touches": 66.0,
      "first_downs": 49.0,
      "xfp": 150.8,
      "xfp_diff": 11.0,
      "xfp_through_week": 17,
      "xfp_coverage": "complete"
    },
    "adv": {
      "snap_pct": 77.6,
      "pass_time_to_throw": null,
      "pass_adot": null,
      "pass_aggressiveness": null,
      "pass_cpoe": null,
      "pass_air_to_sticks": null,
      "pass_rating": null,
      "rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
      "rush_time_to_los": null,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
      "rush_efficiency": null,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": null,
      "rec_avg_separation": 2.72,
      "rec_avg_cushion": 6.19,
      "rec_adot": 12.29,
      "rec_air_share": 38.75,
      "rec_yac_above_exp": 0.15,
      "rec_catch_pct": 64.0,
      "rec_drops": 5.0,
      "rec_broken_tackles": 4.0,
      "rush_ybc_att": null,
      "rush_yac_att": null,
      "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0,
      "pass_pressured_pct": null,
      "pass_bad_throw_pct": null,
      "rec_drop_pct": 5.0
    },
    "ytd": {
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      "g": 7,
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      "passing_yards": 0.0,
      "passing_tds": 0.0,
      "interceptions": 0.0,
      "carries": 2.0,
      "rushing_yards": 23.0,
      "rushing_tds": 0.0,
      "targets": 45.0,
      "receptions": 26.0,
      "receiving_yards": 276.0,
      "receiving_tds": 1.0,
      "passing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "rushing_first_downs": 1.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 11.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 0.0,
      "tgt_share": 23.0,
      "ppg": 6.99,
      "ypc": 11.5,
      "ypt": 6.1,
      "ypr": 10.6,
      "catch_pct": 57.8,
      "total_yd": 299.0,
      "ypg": 42.7,
      "touches": 28.0,
      "first_downs": 12.0,
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    "adv_ytd": {
      "snap_pct": 66.1,
      "pass_time_to_throw": null,
      "pass_adot": null,
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      "pass_air_to_sticks": null,
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      "rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
      "rush_efficiency": null,
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      "rec_avg_separation": 3.56,
      "rec_avg_cushion": 7.16,
      "rec_adot": 9.95,
      "rec_air_share": 35.63,
      "rec_yac_above_exp": -0.3,
      "rec_catch_pct": 57.78,
      "rec_drops": 2.0,
      "rec_broken_tackles": 1.0,
      "rush_ybc_att": null,
      "rush_yac_att": null,
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    }
  },
  "profile": {
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    "season": 2026,
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    "freshness": {
      "writeup": "preseason_context",
      "news": "current",
      "news_inference": "current",
      "injury_outlook": "current",
      "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."
    },
    "writeup": "Waddle's 2025 reads stronger than its box score: he drew a 38.7 percent air-yards share, fourth among qualified wideouts, held a 22 percent target share, produced 9.1 yards per target, and beat his usage-based expectation by 11 points. All of it was earned in Miami, and Miami is the part that changed. Denver's early implied totals average 21.3 points, 25th in the league, with a Week 1 trip to Kansas City where Vegas hangs 20 on the Broncos. The consensus votes with the skeptics at 172 points, WR27, while standard-format drafters keep paying WR18, a full tier above, effectively treating the air-yards crown as portable. His underlying athletic markers were ordinary last year, separation and YAC over expected both mid-pack or worse, so the profile leans on depth of target rather than after-catch juice, which makes the role even more scheme-dependent. If the new offense features him the same way, the projection will look timid, and the current price forces you to pay for that outcome in July.",
    "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00",
    "news": {
      "digest": "Jaylen Waddle (chest) listed questionable Sunday  — Waddle got in a pair of limited practices to end the week. He will be a borderline WR2/WR3 play for fantasy managers if he is cleared. ",
      "latest_at": "2026-10-30T21:11:46+00:00",
      "updated_at": "2026-10-31T23:04:06.851848+00:00",
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      "llm_injury_trajectory": 1,
      "llm_severity": 1,
      "llm_weeks_out": 0.5,
      "llm_offfield_risk": 0,
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      "llm_role_change": 0,
      "llm_usage_outlook": -1,
      "llm_team_context": 0,
      "llm_relevance": 0.9,
      "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-31T23:19:13.037319+00:00",
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  }
}

Use this source carefully