FOOTBALLQUANTS

Player sourcebook / QB · JAX

Trevor Lawrence

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Season / week
2026 / 8
Scoring
HALF · 12 teams · 1 QB
Source freshness
partial
Observed season stats
Through week 8; complete through week 7. The latest week may be partial.

Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt.

outcomes
ready
Captured 2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00; complete through week 7
season projection
preseason prior
Captured Unknown
draft adp
preseason context
Captured Unknown
advanced stats
coverage not verified
Captured Unknown
Model version and retrieval details

Model generated: 2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00. Model generation time does not establish source freshness.

Model version: trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1

Data version: board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8

Retrieved 2026-11-01T01:39:14.071570+00:00. This is the page retrieval time, not a source update.

Scroll the table to see every column.

Alphabetical player research. Observed points use posted games; future estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. Open a player for forecast dates and missing weeks. Trade values are model units.
PlayerPosTeamObserved points/gameGames playedEstimated future points/gameTrade value
Trevor Lawrence QBJAX 19.03620.9267.1

Future projection context

These estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. They do not identify who to start this week; use your league's lineup tool for that decision.

Forecast source
Captured Sleeper future projections
Forecast captured
2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00
Unstarted games through Week 17
10
Weeks with provider forecasts
8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
Weeks using model fallback
None recorded

Draft context

Historical context, not a weekly ranking or remaining-season forecast.

Full-season preseason projection
293
Draft average position
97.6

Observed production

Observed statistics are separate from model estimates. A missing season block means unavailable data.

This season

Fantasy points
114.2
Games played
6
Observed through week
6
passing yards
1,480
passing tds
14
interceptions
4
carries
17
rushing yards
70
rushing tds
0
targets
0
receptions
0
receiving yards
0
receiving tds
0
passing first downs
71
rushing first downs
6
receiving first downs
0
fumbles lost
0
Target share in observed games (%)
0
Fantasy points per game
19.03
Yards per carry
4.1
Yards per target
Unavailable
Yards per reception
Unavailable
Catch rate (%)
Unavailable
Total yards
1,550
Yards per game
258.3
touches
17
first downs
6
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
7.6
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
-0.6
Opportunity observed through week
6
Opportunity coverage
complete

Previous season

Fantasy points
336.2
Games played
17
Observed through week
18
passing yards
4,007
passing tds
29
interceptions
12
carries
82
rushing yards
359
rushing tds
9
targets
0
receptions
0
receiving yards
0
receiving tds
0
passing first downs
195
rushing first downs
42
receiving first downs
0
fumbles lost
3
Target share in observed games (%)
0
Fantasy points per game
19.78
Yards per carry
4.4
Yards per target
Unavailable
Yards per reception
Unavailable
Catch rate (%)
Unavailable
Total yards
4,366
Yards per game
256.8
touches
82
first downs
42
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
62.9
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
27
Opportunity observed through week
18
Opportunity coverage
complete

This season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
97.2
Time to throw (seconds)
2.72
Average depth of pass target (yards)
8.7
pass aggressiveness
16.3
Completion percentage above expectation
3.63
pass air to sticks
-0.81
pass rating
106.25
rush stacked box pct
Unavailable
rush time to los
Unavailable
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
Unavailable
rush efficiency
Unavailable
rush pct over expected
Unavailable
rec avg separation
Unavailable
rec avg cushion
Unavailable
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
Unavailable
rec air share
Unavailable
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
Unavailable
rec catch pct
Unavailable
rec drops
Unavailable
rec broken tackles
Unavailable
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
Unavailable
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
Unavailable
rush broken tackles
1
pass pressured pct
20.8
pass bad throw pct
10.5
rec drop pct
Unavailable

Previous season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
96.7
Time to throw (seconds)
2.87
Average depth of pass target (yards)
8.99
pass aggressiveness
16.79
Completion percentage above expectation
-2.49
pass air to sticks
-0.08
pass rating
90.97
rush stacked box pct
Unavailable
rush time to los
Unavailable
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
Unavailable
rush efficiency
Unavailable
rush pct over expected
Unavailable
rec avg separation
Unavailable
rec avg cushion
Unavailable
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
Unavailable
rec air share
Unavailable
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
Unavailable
rec catch pct
Unavailable
rec drops
Unavailable
rec broken tackles
Unavailable
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
3.39
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
1.05
rush broken tackles
5
pass pressured pct
20.1
pass bad throw pct
13.7
rec drop pct
Unavailable

Player narrative and news

Generated narrative is context, not a verified injury forecast or a weekly recommendation. Inspect its own dates before using it.

Write-up generated: 2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00

Lawrence turned an ordinary passing year into a QB4 fantasy finish, and how he did it is the whole evaluation. Nine rushing touchdowns, a 95th percentile count of rushing first downs, and enough total usage to rank third at the position in expected fantasy points did the lifting, while the throwing charted mediocre: a 22nd percentile CPOE and a mid-pack passer rating on an 88th percentile aDOT, a quarterback attacking downfield without the accuracy to consistently cash it in. The consensus projection processes this the obvious way, trimming the rushing touchdowns to about five and ranking him QB10, and the market lands in the same place, drafting him QB10 near pick 94. The symmetrical fade skips the role question, though, since quarterback short-yardage jobs have historically outlasted what touchdown-regression math assumes, and his 42 rushing first downs read like a designed role that should carry into 2026.

Latest stored news context

{
  "digest": "Trevor Lawrence tosses three touchdowns in blowout win Sunday — Lawrence played a stellar game on Sunday, finishing with over 200 total yards and three touchdowns in a big win over the Patriots. He has been playing well so far this season and will continue to be a viable starting option for the foreseeable future.",
  "latest_at": "2026-09-28T16:20:16+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-09-29T19:00:23.129722+00:00",
  "llm_sentiment": 1,
  "llm_injury_trajectory": 0,
  "llm_severity": 0,
  "llm_weeks_out": null,
  "llm_offfield_risk": 0,
  "llm_key_phrases": "three touchdowns; over 200 total yards; big win; viable starting option; stellar game",
  "llm_role_change": 0,
  "llm_usage_outlook": 0,
  "llm_team_context": 0,
  "llm_relevance": 0.8,
  "llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-29T19:08:27.296878+00:00",
  "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
  "inference_status": "current"
}

Profile freshness: {"writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "unavailable", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."}

Complete source evidence
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  "valuation_context": {
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    "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.",
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    "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.",
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    "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.",
    "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."
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    "name": "Trevor Lawrence",
    "team": "JAX",
    "pos": "QB",
    "age": 27,
    "exp": 5,
    "injury": null,
    "rookie": false,
    "value": 67.1,
    "ros_ppg": 20.92,
    "games_left": 10,
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      "g": 17,
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      "passing_tds": 29.0,
      "interceptions": 12.0,
      "carries": 82.0,
      "rushing_yards": 359.0,
      "rushing_tds": 9.0,
      "targets": 0.0,
      "receptions": 0.0,
      "receiving_yards": 0.0,
      "receiving_tds": 0.0,
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      "rushing_first_downs": 42.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 0.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 3.0,
      "tgt_share": 0.0,
      "ppg": 19.78,
      "ypc": 4.4,
      "ypt": null,
      "ypr": null,
      "catch_pct": null,
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      "ypg": 256.8,
      "touches": 82.0,
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      "pass_time_to_throw": 2.87,
      "pass_adot": 8.99,
      "pass_aggressiveness": 16.79,
      "pass_cpoe": -2.49,
      "pass_air_to_sticks": -0.08,
      "pass_rating": 90.97,
      "rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
      "rush_time_to_los": null,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
      "rush_efficiency": null,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": null,
      "rec_avg_separation": null,
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      "pass_bad_throw_pct": 13.7,
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    "writeup": "Lawrence turned an ordinary passing year into a QB4 fantasy finish, and how he did it is the whole evaluation. Nine rushing touchdowns, a 95th percentile count of rushing first downs, and enough total usage to rank third at the position in expected fantasy points did the lifting, while the throwing charted mediocre: a 22nd percentile CPOE and a mid-pack passer rating on an 88th percentile aDOT, a quarterback attacking downfield without the accuracy to consistently cash it in. The consensus projection processes this the obvious way, trimming the rushing touchdowns to about five and ranking him QB10, and the market lands in the same place, drafting him QB10 near pick 94. The symmetrical fade skips the role question, though, since quarterback short-yardage jobs have historically outlasted what touchdown-regression math assumes, and his 42 rushing first downs read like a designed role that should carry into 2026.",
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      "latest_at": "2026-09-28T16:20:16+00:00",
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Use this source carefully