# Trevor Lawrence — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/7523 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/7523", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:24:03.256283+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "7523", "name": "Trevor Lawrence", "team": "JAX", "pos": "QB", "age": 27, "exp": 5, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 67.1, "ros_ppg": 20.92, "games_left": 10, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 20.915760000000002, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 10 }, "proj": 293, "adp": 97.6, "adp_pr": 10, "ly": { "pts": 336.2, "g": 17, "through_week": 18, "passing_yards": 4007.0, "passing_tds": 29.0, "interceptions": 12.0, "carries": 82.0, "rushing_yards": 359.0, "rushing_tds": 9.0, "targets": 0.0, "receptions": 0.0, "receiving_yards": 0.0, "receiving_tds": 0.0, "passing_first_downs": 195.0, "rushing_first_downs": 42.0, "receiving_first_downs": 0.0, "fumbles_lost": 3.0, "tgt_share": 0.0, "ppg": 19.78, "ypc": 4.4, "ypt": null, "ypr": null, "catch_pct": null, "total_yd": 4366.0, "ypg": 256.8, "touches": 82.0, "first_downs": 42.0, "xfp": 62.9, "xfp_diff": 27.0, "xfp_through_week": 18, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 96.7, "pass_time_to_throw": 2.87, "pass_adot": 8.99, "pass_aggressiveness": 16.79, "pass_cpoe": -2.49, "pass_air_to_sticks": -0.08, "pass_rating": 90.97, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": null, "rec_broken_tackles": null, "rush_ybc_att": 3.39, "rush_yac_att": 1.05, "rush_broken_tackles": 5.0, "pass_pressured_pct": 20.1, "pass_bad_throw_pct": 13.7, "rec_drop_pct": null }, "ytd": { "pts": 114.2, "g": 6, "through_week": 6, "passing_yards": 1480.0, "passing_tds": 14.0, "interceptions": 4.0, "carries": 17.0, "rushing_yards": 70.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 0.0, "receptions": 0.0, "receiving_yards": 0.0, "receiving_tds": 0.0, "passing_first_downs": 71.0, "rushing_first_downs": 6.0, "receiving_first_downs": 0.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 0.0, "ppg": 19.03, "ypc": 4.1, "ypt": null, "ypr": null, "catch_pct": null, "total_yd": 1550.0, "ypg": 258.3, "touches": 17.0, "first_downs": 6.0, "xfp": 7.6, "xfp_diff": -0.6, "xfp_through_week": 6, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 97.2, "pass_time_to_throw": 2.72, "pass_adot": 8.7, "pass_aggressiveness": 16.3, "pass_cpoe": 3.63, "pass_air_to_sticks": -0.81, "pass_rating": 106.25, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": null, "rec_broken_tackles": null, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 1.0, "pass_pressured_pct": 20.8, "pass_bad_throw_pct": 10.5, "rec_drop_pct": null } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "7523", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:24:03.259148+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "unavailable", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Lawrence turned an ordinary passing year into a QB4 fantasy finish, and how he did it is the whole evaluation. Nine rushing touchdowns, a 95th percentile count of rushing first downs, and enough total usage to rank third at the position in expected fantasy points did the lifting, while the throwing charted mediocre: a 22nd percentile CPOE and a mid-pack passer rating on an 88th percentile aDOT, a quarterback attacking downfield without the accuracy to consistently cash it in. The consensus projection processes this the obvious way, trimming the rushing touchdowns to about five and ranking him QB10, and the market lands in the same place, drafting him QB10 near pick 94. The symmetrical fade skips the role question, though, since quarterback short-yardage jobs have historically outlasted what touchdown-regression math assumes, and his 42 rushing first downs read like a designed role that should carry into 2026.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Trevor Lawrence tosses three touchdowns in blowout win Sunday — Lawrence played a stellar game on Sunday, finishing with over 200 total yards and three touchdowns in a big win over the Patriots. He has been playing well so far this season and will continue to be a viable starting option for the foreseeable future.", "latest_at": "2026-09-28T16:20:16+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-29T19:00:23.129722+00:00", "llm_sentiment": 1, "llm_injury_trajectory": 0, "llm_severity": 0, "llm_weeks_out": null, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "three touchdowns; over 200 total yards; big win; viable starting option; stellar game", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": 0, "llm_team_context": 0, "llm_relevance": 0.8, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-29T19:08:27.296878+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": null } } ```