FOOTBALLQUANTS

Player sourcebook / RB · DEN

J.K. Dobbins

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Season / week
2026 / 8
Scoring
HALF · 12 teams · 1 QB
Source freshness
partial
Observed season stats
Through week 8; complete through week 7. The latest week may be partial.

Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt.

outcomes
ready
Captured 2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00; complete through week 7
season projection
preseason prior
Captured Unknown
draft adp
preseason context
Captured Unknown
advanced stats
coverage not verified
Captured Unknown
Model version and retrieval details

Model generated: 2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00. Model generation time does not establish source freshness.

Model version: trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1

Data version: board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8

Retrieved 2026-11-01T01:38:53.232039+00:00. This is the page retrieval time, not a source update.

Scroll the table to see every column.

Alphabetical player research. Observed points use posted games; future estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. Open a player for forecast dates and missing weeks. Trade values are model units.
PlayerPosTeamObserved points/gameGames playedEstimated future points/gameTrade value
J.K. Dobbins RBDEN 7.7175.880

Future projection context

These estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. They do not identify who to start this week; use your league's lineup tool for that decision.

Forecast source
Captured Sleeper future projections
Forecast captured
2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00
Unstarted games through Week 17
9
Weeks with provider forecasts
8, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
Weeks using model fallback
None recorded

Draft context

Historical context, not a weekly ranking or remaining-season forecast.

Full-season preseason projection
167
Draft average position
86.7

Observed production

Observed statistics are separate from model estimates. A missing season block means unavailable data.

This season

Fantasy points
54
Games played
7
Observed through week
7
passing yards
0
passing tds
0
interceptions
0
carries
87
rushing yards
293
rushing tds
3
targets
9
receptions
8
receiving yards
27
receiving tds
0
passing first downs
0
rushing first downs
12
receiving first downs
1
fumbles lost
0
Target share in observed games (%)
4.6
Fantasy points per game
7.71
Yards per carry
3.4
Yards per target
3
Yards per reception
3.4
Catch rate (%)
88.9
Total yards
320
Yards per game
45.7
touches
95
first downs
13
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
72.1
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
-18.1
Opportunity observed through week
7
Opportunity coverage
complete

Previous season

Fantasy points
110.4
Games played
10
Observed through week
10
passing yards
0
passing tds
0
interceptions
0
carries
153
rushing yards
772
rushing tds
4
targets
14
receptions
11
receiving yards
37
receiving tds
0
passing first downs
0
rushing first downs
38
receiving first downs
0
fumbles lost
0
Target share in observed games (%)
4.2
Fantasy points per game
11.04
Yards per carry
5
Yards per target
2.6
Yards per reception
3.4
Catch rate (%)
78.6
Total yards
809
Yards per game
80.9
touches
164
first downs
38
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
111.5
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
-1.1
Opportunity observed through week
10
Opportunity coverage
complete

This season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
40.7
Time to throw (seconds)
Unavailable
Average depth of pass target (yards)
Unavailable
pass aggressiveness
Unavailable
Completion percentage above expectation
Unavailable
pass air to sticks
Unavailable
pass rating
Unavailable
rush stacked box pct
19.54
rush time to los
2.98
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
-0.89
rush efficiency
4.43
rush pct over expected
0.26
rec avg separation
Unavailable
rec avg cushion
Unavailable
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
Unavailable
rec air share
Unavailable
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
Unavailable
rec catch pct
Unavailable
rec drops
0
rec broken tackles
0
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
1.76
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
1.61
rush broken tackles
2
pass pressured pct
Unavailable
pass bad throw pct
Unavailable
rec drop pct
0

Previous season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
51.1
Time to throw (seconds)
Unavailable
Average depth of pass target (yards)
Unavailable
pass aggressiveness
Unavailable
Completion percentage above expectation
Unavailable
pass air to sticks
Unavailable
pass rating
Unavailable
rush stacked box pct
36.6
rush time to los
2.87
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
1.04
rush efficiency
3.47
rush pct over expected
0.44
rec avg separation
Unavailable
rec avg cushion
Unavailable
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
Unavailable
rec air share
Unavailable
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
Unavailable
rec catch pct
Unavailable
rec drops
1
rec broken tackles
0
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
2.6
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
2.44
rush broken tackles
9
pass pressured pct
Unavailable
pass bad throw pct
Unavailable
rec drop pct
7.1

Player narrative and news

Generated narrative is context, not a verified injury forecast or a weekly recommendation. Inspect its own dates before using it.

Write-up generated: 2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00

Few backs saw more crowded boxes than Dobbins last season. Defenses stacked the front on 36.6 percent of his carries, a 94th-percentile rate, and he still averaged 5.0 yards per carry with 1.08 rush yards over expected per attempt and 2.44 yards after contact per rush, both among the best marks at the position. The concern is everything surrounding the rushing: ten games played, fourteen targets all year, zero receiving first downs, and a Denver offense sitting 25th by early implied totals. The consensus projection buys the volume anyway, handing him 218 carries and RB32 points, while the half-PPR market waits until pick 91 (RB34), a mild discount to projection for the best per-carry runner available in that range. The structure of the bet is straightforward: at 27 and listed first on the depth chart, he wins if he simply stays on the field, because the talent signal is as strong as any mid-round back's. A 2.4 percent target share means he needs touchdowns or long rushing days to return starts, and his ten-game 2025 shows that health, rather than play, is what keeps repricing him downward.

Latest stored news context

{
  "digest": "J.K. Dobbins, RJ Harvey struggle in loss Sunday — Denver couldn't get much going on the ground, with Dobbins and Harvey combining for just 65 rushing yards. Dobbins, however, continued to handle more of the rushing work. Harvey, meanwhile, was much more involved as a receiver and ended up leading the Broncos' offense in both receptions and receiving yards. The backfield remains a split, with Dobbins having the better chance at early-down work and Harvey carrying more upside in the passing game.",
  "latest_at": "2026-10-05T18:46:17+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-06T09:00:15.551468+00:00",
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  "llm_offfield_risk": 0,
  "llm_key_phrases": "handle more rushing; early-down work; backfield remains split; just 65 rushing yards; more involved receiver",
  "llm_role_change": 0,
  "llm_usage_outlook": 1,
  "llm_team_context": 0,
  "llm_relevance": 0.9,
  "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-06T09:18:19.900473+00:00",
  "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
  "inference_status": "current"
}

Profile freshness: {"writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."}

Complete source evidence
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Use this source carefully