{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/6806","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:18:14.906609+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"6806","name":"J.K. Dobbins","team":"DEN","pos":"RB","age":27,"exp":6,"injury":null,"rookie":false,"value":0.0,"ros_ppg":5.88,"games_left":9,"projection":{"ros_ppg":5.883333333333334,"source":"sleeper_future","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[8,9,11,12,13,14,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[],"remaining_games":9},"proj":167,"adp":86.7,"adp_pr":33,"ly":{"pts":110.4,"g":10,"through_week":10,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":153.0,"rushing_yards":772.0,"rushing_tds":4.0,"targets":14.0,"receptions":11.0,"receiving_yards":37.0,"receiving_tds":0.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":38.0,"receiving_first_downs":0.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":4.2,"ppg":11.04,"ypc":5.0,"ypt":2.6,"ypr":3.4,"catch_pct":78.6,"total_yd":809.0,"ypg":80.9,"touches":164.0,"first_downs":38.0,"xfp":111.5,"xfp_diff":-1.1,"xfp_through_week":10,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":51.1,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":36.6,"rush_time_to_los":2.87,"rush_ryoe_per_att":1.04,"rush_efficiency":3.47,"rush_pct_over_expected":0.44,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":1.0,"rec_broken_tackles":0.0,"rush_ybc_att":2.6,"rush_yac_att":2.44,"rush_broken_tackles":9.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":7.1},"ytd":{"pts":54.0,"g":7,"through_week":7,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":87.0,"rushing_yards":293.0,"rushing_tds":3.0,"targets":9.0,"receptions":8.0,"receiving_yards":27.0,"receiving_tds":0.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":12.0,"receiving_first_downs":1.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":4.6,"ppg":7.71,"ypc":3.4,"ypt":3.0,"ypr":3.4,"catch_pct":88.9,"total_yd":320.0,"ypg":45.7,"touches":95.0,"first_downs":13.0,"xfp":72.1,"xfp_diff":-18.1,"xfp_through_week":7,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":40.7,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":19.54,"rush_time_to_los":2.98,"rush_ryoe_per_att":-0.89,"rush_efficiency":4.43,"rush_pct_over_expected":0.26,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":0.0,"rec_broken_tackles":0.0,"rush_ybc_att":1.76,"rush_yac_att":1.61,"rush_broken_tackles":2.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":0.0}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"6806","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:18:14.925232+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"stale","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Few backs saw more crowded boxes than Dobbins last season. Defenses stacked the front on 36.6 percent of his carries, a 94th-percentile rate, and he still averaged 5.0 yards per carry with 1.08 rush yards over expected per attempt and 2.44 yards after contact per rush, both among the best marks at the position. The concern is everything surrounding the rushing: ten games played, fourteen targets all year, zero receiving first downs, and a Denver offense sitting 25th by early implied totals. The consensus projection buys the volume anyway, handing him 218 carries and RB32 points, while the half-PPR market waits until pick 91 (RB34), a mild discount to projection for the best per-carry runner available in that range. The structure of the bet is straightforward: at 27 and listed first on the depth chart, he wins if he simply stays on the field, because the talent signal is as strong as any mid-round back's. A 2.4 percent target share means he needs touchdowns or long rushing days to return starts, and his ten-game 2025 shows that health, rather than play, is what keeps repricing him downward.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"J.K. Dobbins, RJ Harvey struggle in loss Sunday — Denver couldn't get much going on the ground, with Dobbins and Harvey combining for just 65 rushing yards. Dobbins, however, continued to handle more of the rushing work. Harvey, meanwhile, was much more involved as a receiver and ended up leading the Broncos' offense in both receptions and receiving yards. The backfield remains a split, with Dobbins having the better chance at early-down work and Harvey carrying more upside in the passing game.","latest_at":"2026-10-05T18:46:17+00:00","updated_at":"2026-10-06T09:00:15.551468+00:00","llm_sentiment":0,"llm_injury_trajectory":0,"llm_severity":0,"llm_weeks_out":null,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"handle more rushing; early-down work; backfield remains split; just 65 rushing yards; more involved receiver","llm_role_change":0,"llm_usage_outlook":1,"llm_team_context":0,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-10-06T09:18:19.900473+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":null,"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"questionable","exp_miss_next6":1.6780349575271793,"as_of":"2026-09-24","source":"curves-v1"}}}