FOOTBALLQUANTS

Player sourcebook / QB · CIN

Joe Burrow

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Season / week
2026 / 8
Scoring
HALF · 12 teams · 1 QB
Source freshness
partial
Observed season stats
Through week 8; complete through week 7. The latest week may be partial.

Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt.

outcomes
ready
Captured 2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00; complete through week 7
season projection
preseason prior
Captured Unknown
draft adp
preseason context
Captured Unknown
advanced stats
coverage not verified
Captured Unknown
Model version and retrieval details

Model generated: 2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00. Model generation time does not establish source freshness.

Model version: trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1

Data version: board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8

Retrieved 2026-11-01T01:38:54.376830+00:00. This is the page retrieval time, not a source update.

Scroll the table to see every column.

Alphabetical player research. Observed points use posted games; future estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. Open a player for forecast dates and missing weeks. Trade values are model units.
PlayerPosTeamObserved points/gameGames playedEstimated future points/gameTrade value
Joe Burrow QBCIN 21.68618.3741.6

Future projection context

These estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. They do not identify who to start this week; use your league's lineup tool for that decision.

Forecast source
Captured Sleeper future projections
Forecast captured
2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00
Unstarted games through Week 17
10
Weeks with provider forecasts
8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
Weeks using model fallback
None recorded

Draft context

Historical context, not a weekly ranking or remaining-season forecast.

Full-season preseason projection
300
Draft average position
53.4

Observed production

Observed statistics are separate from model estimates. A missing season block means unavailable data.

This season

Fantasy points
130.1
Games played
6
Observed through week
7
passing yards
1,653
passing tds
15
interceptions
3
carries
17
rushing yards
60
rushing tds
1
targets
0
receptions
0
receiving yards
0
receiving tds
0
passing first downs
82
rushing first downs
10
receiving first downs
0
fumbles lost
1
Target share in observed games (%)
0
Fantasy points per game
21.68
Yards per carry
3.5
Yards per target
Unavailable
Yards per reception
Unavailable
Catch rate (%)
Unavailable
Total yards
1,713
Yards per game
285.5
touches
17
first downs
10
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
10.1
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
Unavailable
Opportunity observed through week
7
Opportunity coverage
partial

Previous season

Fantasy points
134.5
Games played
8
Observed through week
18
passing yards
1,809
passing tds
17
interceptions
5
carries
14
rushing yards
41
rushing tds
0
targets
0
receptions
0
receiving yards
0
receiving tds
0
passing first downs
100
rushing first downs
5
receiving first downs
0
fumbles lost
0
Target share in observed games (%)
0
Fantasy points per game
16.81
Yards per carry
2.9
Yards per target
Unavailable
Yards per reception
Unavailable
Catch rate (%)
Unavailable
Total yards
1,850
Yards per game
231.2
touches
14
first downs
5
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
9.4
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
-5.3
Opportunity observed through week
18
Opportunity coverage
complete

This season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
99
Time to throw (seconds)
2.64
Average depth of pass target (yards)
7.56
pass aggressiveness
13.24
Completion percentage above expectation
5.21
pass air to sticks
-1.05
pass rating
110.4
rush stacked box pct
Unavailable
rush time to los
Unavailable
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
Unavailable
rush efficiency
Unavailable
rush pct over expected
Unavailable
rec avg separation
Unavailable
rec avg cushion
Unavailable
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
Unavailable
rec air share
Unavailable
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
Unavailable
rec catch pct
Unavailable
rec drops
Unavailable
rec broken tackles
Unavailable
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
Unavailable
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
Unavailable
rush broken tackles
0
pass pressured pct
21.2
pass bad throw pct
12.7
rec drop pct
Unavailable

Previous season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
87.8
Time to throw (seconds)
2.8
Average depth of pass target (yards)
7.59
pass aggressiveness
17.37
Completion percentage above expectation
1.98
pass air to sticks
-0.74
pass rating
100.68
rush stacked box pct
Unavailable
rush time to los
Unavailable
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
Unavailable
rush efficiency
Unavailable
rush pct over expected
Unavailable
rec avg separation
Unavailable
rec avg cushion
Unavailable
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
Unavailable
rec air share
Unavailable
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
Unavailable
rec catch pct
Unavailable
rec drops
Unavailable
rec broken tackles
Unavailable
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
Unavailable
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
Unavailable
rush broken tackles
0
pass pressured pct
21.3
pass bad throw pct
5.3
rec drop pct
Unavailable

Player narrative and news

Generated narrative is context, not a verified injury forecast or a weekly recommendation. Inspect its own dates before using it.

Write-up generated: 2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00

Eight games is all Burrow gave drafters last season, and the throws within them were cleaner than the fantasy line suggests. His 5.3 percent bad-throw rate was among the very lowest at the position, his CPOE sat in the 69th percentile, and his passer rating reached the 81st, so the passing quality clearly survived the injury. The production case is thinner because nothing else contributes: 41 rushing yards all year means his scoring runs entirely through passing touchdowns, and even a consensus projection granting him 33 of those plus a top-five implied team total only ranks him QB7. The market takes him QB4 at pick 58 anyway, three projection spots above his number. That premium is a specific claim, that a healthy Burrow is the best pure-passing outcome at the position, and the 17.4 points per game he managed across his eight 2025 appearances says little either way about the healthy version. Reasonable people can hold that view, but you are paying for 2024 memory rather than anything in the 2025 data.

Latest stored news context

{
  "digest": "Joe Burrow (back) off injury report for Week 3 — Burrow was reportedly dealing with some soreness coming into the week, but it's not a serious issue and he carries no injury designation ahead of Week 3. He should be a full go against the Steelers, assuming he suffers no setbacks between now and then.",
  "latest_at": "2026-09-23T20:43:44+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-09-24T09:00:25.327693+00:00",
  "llm_sentiment": 1,
  "llm_injury_trajectory": 1,
  "llm_severity": 1,
  "llm_weeks_out": null,
  "llm_offfield_risk": 0,
  "llm_key_phrases": "back off injury report; some soreness; no injury designation; full go; no setbacks",
  "llm_role_change": 0,
  "llm_usage_outlook": 0,
  "llm_team_context": 0,
  "llm_relevance": 0.9,
  "llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-24T09:07:24.580668+00:00",
  "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
  "inference_status": "current"
}

Profile freshness: {"writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."}

Complete source evidence
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  "valuation_context": {
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    "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.",
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    "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.",
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    "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.",
    "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."
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    "name": "Joe Burrow",
    "team": "CIN",
    "pos": "QB",
    "age": 29,
    "exp": 6,
    "injury": null,
    "rookie": false,
    "value": 41.6,
    "ros_ppg": 18.37,
    "games_left": 10,
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      "g": 8,
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      "passing_tds": 17.0,
      "interceptions": 5.0,
      "carries": 14.0,
      "rushing_yards": 41.0,
      "rushing_tds": 0.0,
      "targets": 0.0,
      "receptions": 0.0,
      "receiving_yards": 0.0,
      "receiving_tds": 0.0,
      "passing_first_downs": 100.0,
      "rushing_first_downs": 5.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 0.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 0.0,
      "tgt_share": 0.0,
      "ppg": 16.81,
      "ypc": 2.9,
      "ypt": null,
      "ypr": null,
      "catch_pct": null,
      "total_yd": 1850.0,
      "ypg": 231.2,
      "touches": 14.0,
      "first_downs": 5.0,
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      "snap_pct": 87.8,
      "pass_time_to_throw": 2.8,
      "pass_adot": 7.59,
      "pass_aggressiveness": 17.37,
      "pass_cpoe": 1.98,
      "pass_air_to_sticks": -0.74,
      "pass_rating": 100.68,
      "rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
      "rush_time_to_los": null,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
      "rush_efficiency": null,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": null,
      "rec_avg_separation": null,
      "rec_avg_cushion": null,
      "rec_adot": null,
      "rec_air_share": null,
      "rec_yac_above_exp": null,
      "rec_catch_pct": null,
      "rec_drops": null,
      "rec_broken_tackles": null,
      "rush_ybc_att": null,
      "rush_yac_att": null,
      "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0,
      "pass_pressured_pct": 21.3,
      "pass_bad_throw_pct": 5.3,
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    "news": {
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Use this source carefully