{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/6770","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:18:15.612234+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"6770","name":"Joe Burrow","team":"CIN","pos":"QB","age":29,"exp":6,"injury":null,"rookie":false,"value":41.6,"ros_ppg":18.37,"games_left":10,"projection":{"ros_ppg":18.371119999999998,"source":"sleeper_future","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[],"remaining_games":10},"proj":300,"adp":53.4,"adp_pr":4,"ly":{"pts":134.5,"g":8,"through_week":18,"passing_yards":1809.0,"passing_tds":17.0,"interceptions":5.0,"carries":14.0,"rushing_yards":41.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":0.0,"receptions":0.0,"receiving_yards":0.0,"receiving_tds":0.0,"passing_first_downs":100.0,"rushing_first_downs":5.0,"receiving_first_downs":0.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":0.0,"ppg":16.81,"ypc":2.9,"ypt":null,"ypr":null,"catch_pct":null,"total_yd":1850.0,"ypg":231.2,"touches":14.0,"first_downs":5.0,"xfp":9.4,"xfp_diff":-5.3,"xfp_through_week":18,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":87.8,"pass_time_to_throw":2.8,"pass_adot":7.59,"pass_aggressiveness":17.37,"pass_cpoe":1.98,"pass_air_to_sticks":-0.74,"pass_rating":100.68,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":null,"rec_broken_tackles":null,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":0.0,"pass_pressured_pct":21.3,"pass_bad_throw_pct":5.3,"rec_drop_pct":null},"ytd":{"pts":130.1,"g":6,"through_week":7,"passing_yards":1653.0,"passing_tds":15.0,"interceptions":3.0,"carries":17.0,"rushing_yards":60.0,"rushing_tds":1.0,"targets":0.0,"receptions":0.0,"receiving_yards":0.0,"receiving_tds":0.0,"passing_first_downs":82.0,"rushing_first_downs":10.0,"receiving_first_downs":0.0,"fumbles_lost":1.0,"tgt_share":0.0,"ppg":21.68,"ypc":3.5,"ypt":null,"ypr":null,"catch_pct":null,"total_yd":1713.0,"ypg":285.5,"touches":17.0,"first_downs":10.0,"xfp":10.1,"xfp_diff":null,"xfp_through_week":7,"xfp_coverage":"partial"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":99.0,"pass_time_to_throw":2.64,"pass_adot":7.56,"pass_aggressiveness":13.24,"pass_cpoe":5.21,"pass_air_to_sticks":-1.05,"pass_rating":110.4,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":null,"rec_broken_tackles":null,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":0.0,"pass_pressured_pct":21.2,"pass_bad_throw_pct":12.7,"rec_drop_pct":null}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"6770","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:18:15.620565+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"stale","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Eight games is all Burrow gave drafters last season, and the throws within them were cleaner than the fantasy line suggests. His 5.3 percent bad-throw rate was among the very lowest at the position, his CPOE sat in the 69th percentile, and his passer rating reached the 81st, so the passing quality clearly survived the injury. The production case is thinner because nothing else contributes: 41 rushing yards all year means his scoring runs entirely through passing touchdowns, and even a consensus projection granting him 33 of those plus a top-five implied team total only ranks him QB7. The market takes him QB4 at pick 58 anyway, three projection spots above his number. That premium is a specific claim, that a healthy Burrow is the best pure-passing outcome at the position, and the 17.4 points per game he managed across his eight 2025 appearances says little either way about the healthy version. Reasonable people can hold that view, but you are paying for 2024 memory rather than anything in the 2025 data.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"Joe Burrow (back) off injury report for Week 3 — Burrow was reportedly dealing with some soreness coming into the week, but it's not a serious issue and he carries no injury designation ahead of Week 3. He should be a full go against the Steelers, assuming he suffers no setbacks between now and then.","latest_at":"2026-09-23T20:43:44+00:00","updated_at":"2026-09-24T09:00:25.327693+00:00","llm_sentiment":1,"llm_injury_trajectory":1,"llm_severity":1,"llm_weeks_out":null,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"back off injury report; some soreness; no injury designation; full go; no setbacks","llm_role_change":0,"llm_usage_outlook":0,"llm_team_context":0,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-09-24T09:07:24.580668+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":null,"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"questionable","exp_miss_next6":null,"as_of":"2026-09-20","source":"status-only"}}}