Player sourcebook / QB · ATL
Tua Tagovailoa
Read as Markdown · JSON · Interactive board
- Season / week
- 2026 / 8
- Scoring
- HALF · 12 teams · 1 QB
- Source freshness
- partial
- Observed season stats
- Through week 8; complete through week 7. The latest week may be partial.
Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt.
- outcomes
- ready
Captured 2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00; complete through week 7 - season projection
- preseason prior
Captured Unknown - draft adp
- preseason context
Captured Unknown - advanced stats
- coverage not verified
Captured Unknown
Model version and retrieval details
Model generated: 2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00. Model generation time does not establish source freshness.
Model version: trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1
Data version: board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8
Retrieved 2026-11-01T01:38:55.293658+00:00. This is the page retrieval time, not a source update.
Scroll the table to see every column.
| Player | Pos | Team | Observed points/game | Games played | Estimated future points/game | Trade value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | QB | ATL | -0.6 | 1 | 6.59 | 0 |
Future projection context
These estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. They do not identify who to start this week; use your league's lineup tool for that decision.
- Forecast source
- Model fallback
- Forecast captured
- Unavailable; no provider capture established
- Unstarted games through Week 17
- 9
- Weeks with provider forecasts
- None recorded
- Weeks using model fallback
- 8, 9, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
Draft context
Historical context, not a weekly ranking or remaining-season forecast.
- Full-season preseason projection
- 133
- Draft average position
- 258.4
Observed production
Observed statistics are separate from model estimates. A missing season block means unavailable data.
This season
- Fantasy points
- -0.6
- Games played
- 1
- Observed through week
- 5
- passing yards
- 34
- passing tds
- 0
- interceptions
- 1
- carries
- 0
- rushing yards
- 0
- rushing tds
- 0
- targets
- 0
- receptions
- 0
- receiving yards
- 0
- receiving tds
- 0
- passing first downs
- 1
- rushing first downs
- 0
- receiving first downs
- 0
- fumbles lost
- 0
- Target share in observed games (%)
- 0
- Fantasy points per game
- -0.6
- Yards per carry
- Unavailable
- Yards per target
- Unavailable
- Yards per reception
- Unavailable
- Catch rate (%)
- Unavailable
- Total yards
- 34
- Yards per game
- 34
- touches
- 0
- first downs
- 0
Previous season
- Fantasy points
- 158.7
- Games played
- 14
- Observed through week
- 15
- passing yards
- 2,660
- passing tds
- 20
- interceptions
- 15
- carries
- 20
- rushing yards
- 43
- rushing tds
- 0
- targets
- 0
- receptions
- 0
- receiving yards
- 0
- receiving tds
- 0
- passing first downs
- 142
- rushing first downs
- 6
- receiving first downs
- 0
- fumbles lost
- 1
- Target share in observed games (%)
- 0
- Fantasy points per game
- 11.34
- Yards per carry
- 2.1
- Yards per target
- Unavailable
- Yards per reception
- Unavailable
- Catch rate (%)
- Unavailable
- Total yards
- 2,703
- Yards per game
- 193.1
- touches
- 20
- first downs
- 6
- Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
- 8.7
- Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
- Unavailable
- Opportunity observed through week
- 15
- Opportunity coverage
- partial
This season: advanced statistics
- Snap share (%)
- 5
- Time to throw (seconds)
- Unavailable
- Average depth of pass target (yards)
- Unavailable
- pass aggressiveness
- Unavailable
- Completion percentage above expectation
- Unavailable
- pass air to sticks
- Unavailable
- pass rating
- Unavailable
- rush stacked box pct
- Unavailable
- rush time to los
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
- Unavailable
- rush efficiency
- Unavailable
- rush pct over expected
- Unavailable
- rec avg separation
- Unavailable
- rec avg cushion
- Unavailable
- Average depth of receiving target (yards)
- Unavailable
- rec air share
- Unavailable
- Receiving yards after catch above expectation
- Unavailable
- rec catch pct
- Unavailable
- rec drop pct
- Unavailable
Previous season: advanced statistics
- Snap share (%)
- 95.4
- Time to throw (seconds)
- 2.65
- Average depth of pass target (yards)
- 6.66
- pass aggressiveness
- 12.76
- Completion percentage above expectation
- -0.37
- pass air to sticks
- -2.1
- pass rating
- 88.45
- rush stacked box pct
- Unavailable
- rush time to los
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
- Unavailable
- rush efficiency
- Unavailable
- rush pct over expected
- Unavailable
- rec avg separation
- Unavailable
- rec avg cushion
- Unavailable
- Average depth of receiving target (yards)
- Unavailable
- rec air share
- Unavailable
- Receiving yards after catch above expectation
- Unavailable
- rec catch pct
- Unavailable
- rec drops
- Unavailable
- rec broken tackles
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards before contact per attempt
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards after contact per attempt
- Unavailable
- rush broken tackles
- 0
- pass pressured pct
- 22
- pass bad throw pct
- 15.7
- rec drop pct
- Unavailable
Player narrative and news
Generated narrative is context, not a verified injury forecast or a weekly recommendation. Inspect its own dates before using it.
Write-up generated: 2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00
Latest stored news context
{
"digest": "Tua Tagovailoa (oblique) to be backup QB on Thursday — Tagovailoa was expected to enter the season as the Falcons' starting QB, but an oblique injury knocked him out of the first two games. Michael Penix is now ready to return as the top quarterback for Thursday's game. Tagovailoa will be the backup for Penix. ",
"latest_at": "2026-09-23T15:32:34+00:00",
"updated_at": "2026-09-23T19:00:30.621499+00:00",
"llm_sentiment": -1,
"llm_injury_trajectory": -1,
"llm_severity": 2,
"llm_weeks_out": 1.0,
"llm_offfield_risk": 0,
"llm_key_phrases": "oblique injury; backup qb; knocked him out; first two games; top quarterback",
"llm_role_change": -1,
"llm_usage_outlook": -1,
"llm_team_context": -1,
"llm_relevance": 0.9,
"llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-27T09:23:47.239024+00:00",
"llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
"inference_status": "current"
}Profile freshness: {"writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "current", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."}
Stored injury context
{
"status": "absent",
"exp_miss_next6": 4.21601620415637,
"as_of": "2026-10-31",
"source": "curves-v1"
}Complete source evidence
{
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"expected_week": 8,
"warnings": [],
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"completed_through_week": 7
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"captured_at": null
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"draft_adp": {
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"advanced_stats": {
"status": "coverage_not_verified",
"captured_at": null
}
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"note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."
},
"outcome_readiness": {
"completed_week": 7,
"fresh": true,
"checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00",
"status": "ready"
},
"valuation_context": {
"phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback",
"fallback_phase": "in_season_blend",
"fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7,
"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true,
"advanced_stats_priced": false,
"injury_outlook": "annotation_only",
"remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games"
},
"value_locked": null,
"ytd_through_week": 8,
"ytd_complete_through_week": 7,
"sources": [
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"url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"
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],
"limitations": [
"Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.",
"generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.",
"Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.",
"Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.",
"League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."
],
"metric_definitions": {
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"adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.",
"ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.",
"tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.",
"ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.",
"projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.",
"value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.",
"xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.",
"xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."
},
"access": {
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"player": {
"sleeper_id": "6768",
"name": "Tua Tagovailoa",
"team": "ATL",
"pos": "QB",
"age": 28,
"exp": 6,
"injury": null,
"rookie": false,
"value": 0.0,
"ros_ppg": 6.59,
"games_left": 9,
"projection": {
"ros_ppg": 6.590064239272892,
"source": "fallback",
"captured_at": null,
"covered_weeks": [],
"missing_weeks": [
8,
9,
10,
12,
13,
14,
15,
16,
17
],
"remaining_games": 9
},
"proj": 133,
"adp": 258.4,
"adp_pr": 36,
"ly": {
"pts": 158.7,
"g": 14,
"through_week": 15,
"passing_yards": 2660.0,
"passing_tds": 20.0,
"interceptions": 15.0,
"carries": 20.0,
"rushing_yards": 43.0,
"rushing_tds": 0.0,
"targets": 0.0,
"receptions": 0.0,
"receiving_yards": 0.0,
"receiving_tds": 0.0,
"passing_first_downs": 142.0,
"rushing_first_downs": 6.0,
"receiving_first_downs": 0.0,
"fumbles_lost": 1.0,
"tgt_share": 0.0,
"ppg": 11.34,
"ypc": 2.1,
"ypt": null,
"ypr": null,
"catch_pct": null,
"total_yd": 2703.0,
"ypg": 193.1,
"touches": 20.0,
"first_downs": 6.0,
"xfp": 8.7,
"xfp_diff": null,
"xfp_through_week": 15,
"xfp_coverage": "partial"
},
"adv": {
"snap_pct": 95.4,
"pass_time_to_throw": 2.65,
"pass_adot": 6.66,
"pass_aggressiveness": 12.76,
"pass_cpoe": -0.37,
"pass_air_to_sticks": -2.1,
"pass_rating": 88.45,
"rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
"rush_time_to_los": null,
"rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
"rush_efficiency": null,
"rush_pct_over_expected": null,
"rec_avg_separation": null,
"rec_avg_cushion": null,
"rec_adot": null,
"rec_air_share": null,
"rec_yac_above_exp": null,
"rec_catch_pct": null,
"rec_drops": null,
"rec_broken_tackles": null,
"rush_ybc_att": null,
"rush_yac_att": null,
"rush_broken_tackles": 0.0,
"pass_pressured_pct": 22.0,
"pass_bad_throw_pct": 15.7,
"rec_drop_pct": null
},
"ytd": {
"pts": -0.6,
"g": 1,
"through_week": 5,
"passing_yards": 34.0,
"passing_tds": 0.0,
"interceptions": 1.0,
"carries": 0.0,
"rushing_yards": 0.0,
"rushing_tds": 0.0,
"targets": 0.0,
"receptions": 0.0,
"receiving_yards": 0.0,
"receiving_tds": 0.0,
"passing_first_downs": 1.0,
"rushing_first_downs": 0.0,
"receiving_first_downs": 0.0,
"fumbles_lost": 0.0,
"tgt_share": 0.0,
"ppg": -0.6,
"ypc": null,
"ypt": null,
"ypr": null,
"catch_pct": null,
"total_yd": 34.0,
"ypg": 34.0,
"touches": 0.0,
"first_downs": 0.0
},
"adv_ytd": {
"snap_pct": 5.0,
"pass_time_to_throw": null,
"pass_adot": null,
"pass_aggressiveness": null,
"pass_cpoe": null,
"pass_air_to_sticks": null,
"pass_rating": null,
"rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
"rush_time_to_los": null,
"rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
"rush_efficiency": null,
"rush_pct_over_expected": null,
"rec_avg_separation": null,
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"rec_adot": null,
"rec_air_share": null,
"rec_yac_above_exp": null,
"rec_catch_pct": null,
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},
"profile": {
"sleeper_id": "6768",
"season": 2026,
"as_of": "2026-11-01T01:38:55.296382+00:00",
"freshness": {
"writeup": "preseason_context",
"news": "stale",
"news_inference": "current",
"injury_outlook": "current",
"note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."
},
"writeup": "Miami finally moved on, and Tua lands in Atlanta as the listed starter with a passing profile that has grown more conservative every year. His 2.65 seconds to throw was the second-quickest trigger among qualified passers, his 6.65 aDOT sat in the 12th percentile, and his average throw arrived more than two yards short of the sticks, so very little of what he does creates the chunk plays fantasy scoring feeds on. The interceptions are a newer problem than the conservatism. Fifteen in 14 games was second most among quarterbacks, and they dragged a 20-touchdown season down to 12.4 points per game. Atlanta's early implied totals average 20.7, 26th in the league, which won't paper over any of that. The market has him at QB32 around pick 238, essentially free, and the projection lands in the same place, QB31 and roughly 165 points. He works as a bye-week body who should start every game he's healthy, though a checkdown-heavy offense with weak totals rarely produces the ceiling weeks that make streaming him worthwhile.",
"writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00",
"news": {
"digest": "Tua Tagovailoa (oblique) to be backup QB on Thursday — Tagovailoa was expected to enter the season as the Falcons' starting QB, but an oblique injury knocked him out of the first two games. Michael Penix is now ready to return as the top quarterback for Thursday's game. Tagovailoa will be the backup for Penix. ",
"latest_at": "2026-09-23T15:32:34+00:00",
"updated_at": "2026-09-23T19:00:30.621499+00:00",
"llm_sentiment": -1,
"llm_injury_trajectory": -1,
"llm_severity": 2,
"llm_weeks_out": 1.0,
"llm_offfield_risk": 0,
"llm_key_phrases": "oblique injury; backup qb; knocked him out; first two games; top quarterback",
"llm_role_change": -1,
"llm_usage_outlook": -1,
"llm_team_context": -1,
"llm_relevance": 0.9,
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"injury_outlook": {
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}
}
}Use this source carefully
- Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.
- generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.
- Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.
- Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.
- League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring.