FOOTBALLQUANTS

Player sourcebook / QB · ATL

Tua Tagovailoa

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Season / week
2026 / 8
Scoring
HALF · 12 teams · 1 QB
Source freshness
partial
Observed season stats
Through week 8; complete through week 7. The latest week may be partial.

Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt.

outcomes
ready
Captured 2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00; complete through week 7
season projection
preseason prior
Captured Unknown
draft adp
preseason context
Captured Unknown
advanced stats
coverage not verified
Captured Unknown
Model version and retrieval details

Model generated: 2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00. Model generation time does not establish source freshness.

Model version: trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1

Data version: board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8

Retrieved 2026-11-01T01:38:55.293658+00:00. This is the page retrieval time, not a source update.

Scroll the table to see every column.

Alphabetical player research. Observed points use posted games; future estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. Open a player for forecast dates and missing weeks. Trade values are model units.
PlayerPosTeamObserved points/gameGames playedEstimated future points/gameTrade value
Tua Tagovailoa QBATL -0.616.590

Future projection context

These estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. They do not identify who to start this week; use your league's lineup tool for that decision.

Forecast source
Model fallback
Forecast captured
Unavailable; no provider capture established
Unstarted games through Week 17
9
Weeks with provider forecasts
None recorded
Weeks using model fallback
8, 9, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17

Draft context

Historical context, not a weekly ranking or remaining-season forecast.

Full-season preseason projection
133
Draft average position
258.4

Observed production

Observed statistics are separate from model estimates. A missing season block means unavailable data.

This season

Fantasy points
-0.6
Games played
1
Observed through week
5
passing yards
34
passing tds
0
interceptions
1
carries
0
rushing yards
0
rushing tds
0
targets
0
receptions
0
receiving yards
0
receiving tds
0
passing first downs
1
rushing first downs
0
receiving first downs
0
fumbles lost
0
Target share in observed games (%)
0
Fantasy points per game
-0.6
Yards per carry
Unavailable
Yards per target
Unavailable
Yards per reception
Unavailable
Catch rate (%)
Unavailable
Total yards
34
Yards per game
34
touches
0
first downs
0

Previous season

Fantasy points
158.7
Games played
14
Observed through week
15
passing yards
2,660
passing tds
20
interceptions
15
carries
20
rushing yards
43
rushing tds
0
targets
0
receptions
0
receiving yards
0
receiving tds
0
passing first downs
142
rushing first downs
6
receiving first downs
0
fumbles lost
1
Target share in observed games (%)
0
Fantasy points per game
11.34
Yards per carry
2.1
Yards per target
Unavailable
Yards per reception
Unavailable
Catch rate (%)
Unavailable
Total yards
2,703
Yards per game
193.1
touches
20
first downs
6
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
8.7
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
Unavailable
Opportunity observed through week
15
Opportunity coverage
partial

This season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
5
Time to throw (seconds)
Unavailable
Average depth of pass target (yards)
Unavailable
pass aggressiveness
Unavailable
Completion percentage above expectation
Unavailable
pass air to sticks
Unavailable
pass rating
Unavailable
rush stacked box pct
Unavailable
rush time to los
Unavailable
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
Unavailable
rush efficiency
Unavailable
rush pct over expected
Unavailable
rec avg separation
Unavailable
rec avg cushion
Unavailable
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
Unavailable
rec air share
Unavailable
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
Unavailable
rec catch pct
Unavailable
rec drop pct
Unavailable

Previous season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
95.4
Time to throw (seconds)
2.65
Average depth of pass target (yards)
6.66
pass aggressiveness
12.76
Completion percentage above expectation
-0.37
pass air to sticks
-2.1
pass rating
88.45
rush stacked box pct
Unavailable
rush time to los
Unavailable
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
Unavailable
rush efficiency
Unavailable
rush pct over expected
Unavailable
rec avg separation
Unavailable
rec avg cushion
Unavailable
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
Unavailable
rec air share
Unavailable
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
Unavailable
rec catch pct
Unavailable
rec drops
Unavailable
rec broken tackles
Unavailable
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
Unavailable
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
Unavailable
rush broken tackles
0
pass pressured pct
22
pass bad throw pct
15.7
rec drop pct
Unavailable

Player narrative and news

Generated narrative is context, not a verified injury forecast or a weekly recommendation. Inspect its own dates before using it.

Write-up generated: 2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00

Miami finally moved on, and Tua lands in Atlanta as the listed starter with a passing profile that has grown more conservative every year. His 2.65 seconds to throw was the second-quickest trigger among qualified passers, his 6.65 aDOT sat in the 12th percentile, and his average throw arrived more than two yards short of the sticks, so very little of what he does creates the chunk plays fantasy scoring feeds on. The interceptions are a newer problem than the conservatism. Fifteen in 14 games was second most among quarterbacks, and they dragged a 20-touchdown season down to 12.4 points per game. Atlanta's early implied totals average 20.7, 26th in the league, which won't paper over any of that. The market has him at QB32 around pick 238, essentially free, and the projection lands in the same place, QB31 and roughly 165 points. He works as a bye-week body who should start every game he's healthy, though a checkdown-heavy offense with weak totals rarely produces the ceiling weeks that make streaming him worthwhile.

Latest stored news context

{
  "digest": "Tua Tagovailoa (oblique) to be backup QB on Thursday — Tagovailoa was expected to enter the season as the Falcons' starting QB, but an oblique injury knocked him out of the first two games. Michael Penix is now ready to return as the top quarterback for Thursday's game. Tagovailoa will be the backup for Penix. ",
  "latest_at": "2026-09-23T15:32:34+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-09-23T19:00:30.621499+00:00",
  "llm_sentiment": -1,
  "llm_injury_trajectory": -1,
  "llm_severity": 2,
  "llm_weeks_out": 1.0,
  "llm_offfield_risk": 0,
  "llm_key_phrases": "oblique injury; backup qb; knocked him out; first two games; top quarterback",
  "llm_role_change": -1,
  "llm_usage_outlook": -1,
  "llm_team_context": -1,
  "llm_relevance": 0.9,
  "llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-27T09:23:47.239024+00:00",
  "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
  "inference_status": "current"
}

Profile freshness: {"writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "current", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."}

Stored injury context

{
  "status": "absent",
  "exp_miss_next6": 4.21601620415637,
  "as_of": "2026-10-31",
  "source": "curves-v1"
}
Complete source evidence
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  "valuation_context": {
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    "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.",
    "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."
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    "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.",
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    "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.",
    "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."
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  "player": {
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    "name": "Tua Tagovailoa",
    "team": "ATL",
    "pos": "QB",
    "age": 28,
    "exp": 6,
    "injury": null,
    "rookie": false,
    "value": 0.0,
    "ros_ppg": 6.59,
    "games_left": 9,
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      "g": 14,
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      "carries": 20.0,
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      "receiving_yards": 0.0,
      "receiving_tds": 0.0,
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      "rushing_first_downs": 6.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 0.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 1.0,
      "tgt_share": 0.0,
      "ppg": 11.34,
      "ypc": 2.1,
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      "ypr": null,
      "catch_pct": null,
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      "pass_aggressiveness": 12.76,
      "pass_cpoe": -0.37,
      "pass_air_to_sticks": -2.1,
      "pass_rating": 88.45,
      "rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
      "rush_time_to_los": null,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
      "rush_efficiency": null,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": null,
      "rec_avg_separation": null,
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      "pass_bad_throw_pct": 15.7,
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    "writeup": "Miami finally moved on, and Tua lands in Atlanta as the listed starter with a passing profile that has grown more conservative every year. His 2.65 seconds to throw was the second-quickest trigger among qualified passers, his 6.65 aDOT sat in the 12th percentile, and his average throw arrived more than two yards short of the sticks, so very little of what he does creates the chunk plays fantasy scoring feeds on. The interceptions are a newer problem than the conservatism. Fifteen in 14 games was second most among quarterbacks, and they dragged a 20-touchdown season down to 12.4 points per game. Atlanta's early implied totals average 20.7, 26th in the league, which won't paper over any of that. The market has him at QB32 around pick 238, essentially free, and the projection lands in the same place, QB31 and roughly 165 points. He works as a bye-week body who should start every game he's healthy, though a checkdown-heavy offense with weak totals rarely produces the ceiling weeks that make streaming him worthwhile.",
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Use this source carefully