{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/6768","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:18:16.247786+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"6768","name":"Tua Tagovailoa","team":"ATL","pos":"QB","age":28,"exp":6,"injury":null,"rookie":false,"value":0.0,"ros_ppg":6.59,"games_left":9,"projection":{"ros_ppg":6.590064239272892,"source":"fallback","captured_at":null,"covered_weeks":[],"missing_weeks":[8,9,10,12,13,14,15,16,17],"remaining_games":9},"proj":133,"adp":258.4,"adp_pr":36,"ly":{"pts":158.7,"g":14,"through_week":15,"passing_yards":2660.0,"passing_tds":20.0,"interceptions":15.0,"carries":20.0,"rushing_yards":43.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":0.0,"receptions":0.0,"receiving_yards":0.0,"receiving_tds":0.0,"passing_first_downs":142.0,"rushing_first_downs":6.0,"receiving_first_downs":0.0,"fumbles_lost":1.0,"tgt_share":0.0,"ppg":11.34,"ypc":2.1,"ypt":null,"ypr":null,"catch_pct":null,"total_yd":2703.0,"ypg":193.1,"touches":20.0,"first_downs":6.0,"xfp":8.7,"xfp_diff":null,"xfp_through_week":15,"xfp_coverage":"partial"},"adv":{"snap_pct":95.4,"pass_time_to_throw":2.65,"pass_adot":6.66,"pass_aggressiveness":12.76,"pass_cpoe":-0.37,"pass_air_to_sticks":-2.1,"pass_rating":88.45,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":null,"rec_broken_tackles":null,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":0.0,"pass_pressured_pct":22.0,"pass_bad_throw_pct":15.7,"rec_drop_pct":null},"ytd":{"pts":-0.6,"g":1,"through_week":5,"passing_yards":34.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":1.0,"carries":0.0,"rushing_yards":0.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":0.0,"receptions":0.0,"receiving_yards":0.0,"receiving_tds":0.0,"passing_first_downs":1.0,"rushing_first_downs":0.0,"receiving_first_downs":0.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":0.0,"ppg":-0.6,"ypc":null,"ypt":null,"ypr":null,"catch_pct":null,"total_yd":34.0,"ypg":34.0,"touches":0.0,"first_downs":0.0},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":5.0,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":null}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"6768","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:18:16.252450+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"current","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Miami finally moved on, and Tua lands in Atlanta as the listed starter with a passing profile that has grown more conservative every year. His 2.65 seconds to throw was the second-quickest trigger among qualified passers, his 6.65 aDOT sat in the 12th percentile, and his average throw arrived more than two yards short of the sticks, so very little of what he does creates the chunk plays fantasy scoring feeds on. The interceptions are a newer problem than the conservatism. Fifteen in 14 games was second most among quarterbacks, and they dragged a 20-touchdown season down to 12.4 points per game. Atlanta's early implied totals average 20.7, 26th in the league, which won't paper over any of that. The market has him at QB32 around pick 238, essentially free, and the projection lands in the same place, QB31 and roughly 165 points. He works as a bye-week body who should start every game he's healthy, though a checkdown-heavy offense with weak totals rarely produces the ceiling weeks that make streaming him worthwhile.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"Tua Tagovailoa (oblique) to be backup QB on Thursday — Tagovailoa was expected to enter the season as the Falcons' starting QB, but an oblique injury knocked him out of the first two games. Michael Penix is now ready to return as the top quarterback for Thursday's game. Tagovailoa will be the backup for Penix. 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