FOOTBALLQUANTS

Player sourcebook / QB · MIN

Kyler Murray

Read as Markdown · JSON · Interactive board

Season / week
2026 / 8
Scoring
HALF · 12 teams · 1 QB
Source freshness
partial
Observed season stats
Through week 8; complete through week 7. The latest week may be partial.

Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt.

outcomes
ready
Captured 2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00; complete through week 7
season projection
preseason prior
Captured Unknown
draft adp
preseason context
Captured Unknown
advanced stats
coverage not verified
Captured Unknown
Model version and retrieval details

Model generated: 2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00. Model generation time does not establish source freshness.

Model version: trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1

Data version: board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8

Retrieved 2026-11-01T01:39:14.166094+00:00. This is the page retrieval time, not a source update.

Scroll the table to see every column.

Alphabetical player research. Observed points use posted games; future estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. Open a player for forecast dates and missing weeks. Trade values are model units.
PlayerPosTeamObserved points/gameGames playedEstimated future points/gameTrade value
Kyler Murray QBMIN 10.74515.8516.4

Future projection context

These estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. They do not identify who to start this week; use your league's lineup tool for that decision.

Forecast source
Captured Sleeper future projections
Forecast captured
2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00
Unstarted games through Week 17
10
Weeks with provider forecasts
8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
Weeks using model fallback
None recorded

Draft context

Historical context, not a weekly ranking or remaining-season forecast.

Full-season preseason projection
277
Draft average position
150.1

Observed production

Observed statistics are separate from model estimates. A missing season block means unavailable data.

This season

Fantasy points
53.7
Games played
5
Observed through week
7
passing yards
812
passing tds
3
interceptions
2
carries
25
rushing yards
132
rushing tds
0
targets
0
receptions
0
receiving yards
0
receiving tds
0
passing first downs
38
rushing first downs
7
receiving first downs
0
fumbles lost
0
Target share in observed games (%)
0
Fantasy points per game
10.74
Yards per carry
5.3
Yards per target
Unavailable
Yards per reception
Unavailable
Catch rate (%)
Unavailable
Total yards
944
Yards per game
188.8
touches
25
first downs
7
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
9
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
4.2
Opportunity observed through week
7
Opportunity coverage
complete

Previous season

Fantasy points
77.8
Games played
5
Observed through week
5
passing yards
962
passing tds
6
interceptions
3
carries
29
rushing yards
173
rushing tds
1
targets
0
receptions
0
receiving yards
0
receiving tds
0
passing first downs
50
rushing first downs
12
receiving first downs
0
fumbles lost
1
Target share in observed games (%)
0
Fantasy points per game
15.56
Yards per carry
6
Yards per target
Unavailable
Yards per reception
Unavailable
Catch rate (%)
Unavailable
Total yards
1,135
Yards per game
227
touches
29
first downs
12
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
16.8
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
6.5
Opportunity observed through week
5
Opportunity coverage
complete

This season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
83.4
Time to throw (seconds)
2.91
Average depth of pass target (yards)
7.21
pass aggressiveness
8
Completion percentage above expectation
0.72
pass air to sticks
-2.65
pass rating
85.82
rush stacked box pct
Unavailable
rush time to los
Unavailable
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
Unavailable
rush efficiency
Unavailable
rush pct over expected
Unavailable
rec avg separation
Unavailable
rec avg cushion
Unavailable
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
Unavailable
rec air share
Unavailable
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
Unavailable
rec catch pct
Unavailable
rec drops
Unavailable
rec broken tackles
Unavailable
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
Unavailable
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
Unavailable
rush broken tackles
0
pass pressured pct
22.4
pass bad throw pct
12
rec drop pct
Unavailable

Previous season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
98.8
Time to throw (seconds)
2.68
Average depth of pass target (yards)
6.04
pass aggressiveness
13.04
Completion percentage above expectation
-1.24
pass air to sticks
-2.91
pass rating
88.57
rush stacked box pct
Unavailable
rush time to los
Unavailable
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
Unavailable
rush efficiency
Unavailable
rush pct over expected
Unavailable
rec avg separation
Unavailable
rec avg cushion
Unavailable
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
Unavailable
rec air share
Unavailable
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
Unavailable
rec catch pct
Unavailable
rec drops
Unavailable
rec broken tackles
Unavailable
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
Unavailable
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
Unavailable
rush broken tackles
2
pass pressured pct
16.5
pass bad throw pct
16
rec drop pct
Unavailable

Player narrative and news

Generated narrative is context, not a verified injury forecast or a weekly recommendation. Inspect its own dates before using it.

Write-up generated: 2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00

Minnesota amounts to a full reset for Murray after a five-game 2025 in Arizona. What little sample exists shows an extremely compact passing profile, a 6.0 aDOT in the bottom tenth of quarterbacks, throws arriving almost three yards short of the sticks, and one of the fastest releases at the position, which also kept his pressure rate near the league low. He averaged 34.6 rushing yards per game in those five starts, and the consensus projection leans on exactly that, 476 rush yards and three or four rushing scores inside a 276-point QB19 season. Drafters are not quite buying it, letting him go QB21 near pick 153, and Vegas slots the Vikings 19th in implied totals, so the surrounding offense projects as ordinary. The rushing floor is the whole case at this price, and a projected QB19 available two rounds later than that projection warrants is a reasonable discount for the uncertainty.

Latest stored news context

{
  "digest": "Kyler Murray clears concussion protocol, will start Week 3 — Murray missed the Vikings Week 2 slog of a win over the Bears, but he will be back in the lineup for Week 3 against a hapless Tampa defense. Murray is still a bit of an unknown at this point given he barely played in Week 1, but this is a perfect matchup to return to.",
  "latest_at": "2026-09-21T18:31:10+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-09-22T19:00:49.224585+00:00",
  "llm_sentiment": 1,
  "llm_injury_trajectory": 1,
  "llm_severity": 1,
  "llm_weeks_out": 0.0,
  "llm_offfield_risk": 0,
  "llm_key_phrases": "clears concussion protocol; will start week 3; missed week 2; back in lineup; perfect matchup",
  "llm_role_change": 0,
  "llm_usage_outlook": 1,
  "llm_team_context": 0,
  "llm_relevance": 0.9,
  "llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-24T09:30:11.023291+00:00",
  "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
  "inference_status": "current"
}

Profile freshness: {"writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."}

Complete source evidence
{
  "schema_version": "public-sources.v1",
  "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/5849",
  "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T01:39:14.166094+00:00",
  "season": 2026,
  "week": 8,
  "last_season": 2025,
  "fmt": "half",
  "teams": 12,
  "qb": 1,
  "mode": "inseason",
  "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8",
  "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1",
  "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00",
  "freshness": {
    "status": "partial",
    "expected_season": 2026,
    "served_season": 2026,
    "expected_week": 8,
    "warnings": [],
    "sources": {
      "outcomes": {
        "status": "ready",
        "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00",
        "completed_through_week": 7
      },
      "season_projection": {
        "status": "preseason_prior",
        "captured_at": null
      },
      "draft_adp": {
        "status": "preseason_context",
        "captured_at": null
      },
      "advanced_stats": {
        "status": "coverage_not_verified",
        "captured_at": null
      }
    },
    "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."
  },
  "outcome_readiness": {
    "completed_week": 7,
    "fresh": true,
    "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00",
    "status": "ready"
  },
  "valuation_context": {
    "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback",
    "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend",
    "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7,
    "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true,
    "advanced_stats_priced": false,
    "injury_outlook": "annotation_only",
    "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games"
  },
  "value_locked": null,
  "ytd_through_week": 8,
  "ytd_complete_through_week": 7,
  "sources": [
    {
      "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board",
      "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.",
    "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.",
    "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.",
    "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.",
    "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."
  ],
  "metric_definitions": {
    "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.",
    "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.",
    "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.",
    "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.",
    "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.",
    "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.",
    "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.",
    "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.",
    "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."
  },
  "access": {
    "public": true,
    "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app",
    "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect"
  },
  "player": {
    "sleeper_id": "5849",
    "name": "Kyler Murray",
    "team": "MIN",
    "pos": "QB",
    "age": 29,
    "exp": 7,
    "injury": null,
    "rookie": false,
    "value": 16.4,
    "ros_ppg": 15.85,
    "games_left": 10,
    "projection": {
      "ros_ppg": 15.85196,
      "source": "sleeper_future",
      "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00",
      "covered_weeks": [
        8,
        9,
        10,
        11,
        12,
        13,
        14,
        15,
        16,
        17
      ],
      "missing_weeks": [],
      "remaining_games": 10
    },
    "proj": 277,
    "adp": 150.1,
    "adp_pr": 17,
    "ly": {
      "pts": 77.8,
      "g": 5,
      "through_week": 5,
      "passing_yards": 962.0,
      "passing_tds": 6.0,
      "interceptions": 3.0,
      "carries": 29.0,
      "rushing_yards": 173.0,
      "rushing_tds": 1.0,
      "targets": 0.0,
      "receptions": 0.0,
      "receiving_yards": 0.0,
      "receiving_tds": 0.0,
      "passing_first_downs": 50.0,
      "rushing_first_downs": 12.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 0.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 1.0,
      "tgt_share": 0.0,
      "ppg": 15.56,
      "ypc": 6.0,
      "ypt": null,
      "ypr": null,
      "catch_pct": null,
      "total_yd": 1135.0,
      "ypg": 227.0,
      "touches": 29.0,
      "first_downs": 12.0,
      "xfp": 16.8,
      "xfp_diff": 6.5,
      "xfp_through_week": 5,
      "xfp_coverage": "complete"
    },
    "adv": {
      "snap_pct": 98.8,
      "pass_time_to_throw": 2.68,
      "pass_adot": 6.04,
      "pass_aggressiveness": 13.04,
      "pass_cpoe": -1.24,
      "pass_air_to_sticks": -2.91,
      "pass_rating": 88.57,
      "rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
      "rush_time_to_los": null,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
      "rush_efficiency": null,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": null,
      "rec_avg_separation": null,
      "rec_avg_cushion": null,
      "rec_adot": null,
      "rec_air_share": null,
      "rec_yac_above_exp": null,
      "rec_catch_pct": null,
      "rec_drops": null,
      "rec_broken_tackles": null,
      "rush_ybc_att": null,
      "rush_yac_att": null,
      "rush_broken_tackles": 2.0,
      "pass_pressured_pct": 16.5,
      "pass_bad_throw_pct": 16.0,
      "rec_drop_pct": null
    },
    "ytd": {
      "pts": 53.7,
      "g": 5,
      "through_week": 7,
      "passing_yards": 812.0,
      "passing_tds": 3.0,
      "interceptions": 2.0,
      "carries": 25.0,
      "rushing_yards": 132.0,
      "rushing_tds": 0.0,
      "targets": 0.0,
      "receptions": 0.0,
      "receiving_yards": 0.0,
      "receiving_tds": 0.0,
      "passing_first_downs": 38.0,
      "rushing_first_downs": 7.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 0.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 0.0,
      "tgt_share": 0.0,
      "ppg": 10.74,
      "ypc": 5.3,
      "ypt": null,
      "ypr": null,
      "catch_pct": null,
      "total_yd": 944.0,
      "ypg": 188.8,
      "touches": 25.0,
      "first_downs": 7.0,
      "xfp": 9.0,
      "xfp_diff": 4.2,
      "xfp_through_week": 7,
      "xfp_coverage": "complete"
    },
    "adv_ytd": {
      "snap_pct": 83.4,
      "pass_time_to_throw": 2.91,
      "pass_adot": 7.21,
      "pass_aggressiveness": 8.0,
      "pass_cpoe": 0.72,
      "pass_air_to_sticks": -2.65,
      "pass_rating": 85.82,
      "rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
      "rush_time_to_los": null,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
      "rush_efficiency": null,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": null,
      "rec_avg_separation": null,
      "rec_avg_cushion": null,
      "rec_adot": null,
      "rec_air_share": null,
      "rec_yac_above_exp": null,
      "rec_catch_pct": null,
      "rec_drops": null,
      "rec_broken_tackles": null,
      "rush_ybc_att": null,
      "rush_yac_att": null,
      "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0,
      "pass_pressured_pct": 22.4,
      "pass_bad_throw_pct": 12.0,
      "rec_drop_pct": null
    }
  },
  "profile": {
    "sleeper_id": "5849",
    "season": 2026,
    "as_of": "2026-11-01T01:39:14.170294+00:00",
    "freshness": {
      "writeup": "preseason_context",
      "news": "stale",
      "news_inference": "current",
      "injury_outlook": "stale",
      "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."
    },
    "writeup": "Minnesota amounts to a full reset for Murray after a five-game 2025 in Arizona. What little sample exists shows an extremely compact passing profile, a 6.0 aDOT in the bottom tenth of quarterbacks, throws arriving almost three yards short of the sticks, and one of the fastest releases at the position, which also kept his pressure rate near the league low. He averaged 34.6 rushing yards per game in those five starts, and the consensus projection leans on exactly that, 476 rush yards and three or four rushing scores inside a 276-point QB19 season. Drafters are not quite buying it, letting him go QB21 near pick 153, and Vegas slots the Vikings 19th in implied totals, so the surrounding offense projects as ordinary. The rushing floor is the whole case at this price, and a projected QB19 available two rounds later than that projection warrants is a reasonable discount for the uncertainty.",
    "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00",
    "news": {
      "digest": "Kyler Murray clears concussion protocol, will start Week 3 — Murray missed the Vikings Week 2 slog of a win over the Bears, but he will be back in the lineup for Week 3 against a hapless Tampa defense. Murray is still a bit of an unknown at this point given he barely played in Week 1, but this is a perfect matchup to return to.",
      "latest_at": "2026-09-21T18:31:10+00:00",
      "updated_at": "2026-09-22T19:00:49.224585+00:00",
      "llm_sentiment": 1,
      "llm_injury_trajectory": 1,
      "llm_severity": 1,
      "llm_weeks_out": 0.0,
      "llm_offfield_risk": 0,
      "llm_key_phrases": "clears concussion protocol; will start week 3; missed week 2; back in lineup; perfect matchup",
      "llm_role_change": 0,
      "llm_usage_outlook": 1,
      "llm_team_context": 0,
      "llm_relevance": 0.9,
      "llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-24T09:30:11.023291+00:00",
      "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
      "inference_status": "current"
    },
    "injury_outlook": null,
    "injury_outlook_last_captured": {
      "status": "absent",
      "exp_miss_next6": 3.697937500856865,
      "as_of": "2026-09-28",
      "source": "curves-v1"
    }
  }
}

Use this source carefully