# Kyler Murray — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/5849 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/5849", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:24:02.423662+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "5849", "name": "Kyler Murray", "team": "MIN", "pos": "QB", "age": 29, "exp": 7, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 16.4, "ros_ppg": 15.85, "games_left": 10, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 15.85196, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 10 }, "proj": 277, "adp": 150.1, "adp_pr": 17, "ly": { "pts": 77.8, "g": 5, "through_week": 5, "passing_yards": 962.0, "passing_tds": 6.0, "interceptions": 3.0, "carries": 29.0, "rushing_yards": 173.0, "rushing_tds": 1.0, "targets": 0.0, "receptions": 0.0, "receiving_yards": 0.0, "receiving_tds": 0.0, "passing_first_downs": 50.0, "rushing_first_downs": 12.0, "receiving_first_downs": 0.0, "fumbles_lost": 1.0, "tgt_share": 0.0, "ppg": 15.56, "ypc": 6.0, "ypt": null, "ypr": null, "catch_pct": null, "total_yd": 1135.0, "ypg": 227.0, "touches": 29.0, "first_downs": 12.0, "xfp": 16.8, "xfp_diff": 6.5, "xfp_through_week": 5, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 98.8, "pass_time_to_throw": 2.68, "pass_adot": 6.04, "pass_aggressiveness": 13.04, "pass_cpoe": -1.24, "pass_air_to_sticks": -2.91, "pass_rating": 88.57, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": null, "rec_broken_tackles": null, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 2.0, "pass_pressured_pct": 16.5, "pass_bad_throw_pct": 16.0, "rec_drop_pct": null }, "ytd": { "pts": 53.7, "g": 5, "through_week": 7, "passing_yards": 812.0, "passing_tds": 3.0, "interceptions": 2.0, "carries": 25.0, "rushing_yards": 132.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 0.0, "receptions": 0.0, "receiving_yards": 0.0, "receiving_tds": 0.0, "passing_first_downs": 38.0, "rushing_first_downs": 7.0, "receiving_first_downs": 0.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 0.0, "ppg": 10.74, "ypc": 5.3, "ypt": null, "ypr": null, "catch_pct": null, "total_yd": 944.0, "ypg": 188.8, "touches": 25.0, "first_downs": 7.0, "xfp": 9.0, "xfp_diff": 4.2, "xfp_through_week": 7, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 83.4, "pass_time_to_throw": 2.91, "pass_adot": 7.21, "pass_aggressiveness": 8.0, "pass_cpoe": 0.72, "pass_air_to_sticks": -2.65, "pass_rating": 85.82, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": null, "rec_broken_tackles": null, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": 22.4, "pass_bad_throw_pct": 12.0, "rec_drop_pct": null } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "5849", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:24:02.426704+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Minnesota amounts to a full reset for Murray after a five-game 2025 in Arizona. What little sample exists shows an extremely compact passing profile, a 6.0 aDOT in the bottom tenth of quarterbacks, throws arriving almost three yards short of the sticks, and one of the fastest releases at the position, which also kept his pressure rate near the league low. He averaged 34.6 rushing yards per game in those five starts, and the consensus projection leans on exactly that, 476 rush yards and three or four rushing scores inside a 276-point QB19 season. Drafters are not quite buying it, letting him go QB21 near pick 153, and Vegas slots the Vikings 19th in implied totals, so the surrounding offense projects as ordinary. The rushing floor is the whole case at this price, and a projected QB19 available two rounds later than that projection warrants is a reasonable discount for the uncertainty.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Kyler Murray clears concussion protocol, will start Week 3 — Murray missed the Vikings Week 2 slog of a win over the Bears, but he will be back in the lineup for Week 3 against a hapless Tampa defense. Murray is still a bit of an unknown at this point given he barely played in Week 1, but this is a perfect matchup to return to.", "latest_at": "2026-09-21T18:31:10+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-22T19:00:49.224585+00:00", "llm_sentiment": 1, "llm_injury_trajectory": 1, "llm_severity": 1, "llm_weeks_out": 0.0, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "clears concussion protocol; will start week 3; missed week 2; back in lineup; perfect matchup", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": 1, "llm_team_context": 0, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-24T09:30:11.023291+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": { "status": "absent", "exp_miss_next6": 3.697937500856865, "as_of": "2026-09-28", "source": "curves-v1" } } } ```