FOOTBALLQUANTS

Player sourcebook / QB · BAL

Lamar Jackson

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Season / week
2026 / 8
Scoring
HALF · 12 teams · 1 QB
Source freshness
partial
Observed season stats
Through week 8; complete through week 7. The latest week may be partial.

Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt.

outcomes
ready
Captured 2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00; complete through week 7
season projection
preseason prior
Captured Unknown
draft adp
preseason context
Captured Unknown
advanced stats
coverage not verified
Captured Unknown
Model version and retrieval details

Model generated: 2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00. Model generation time does not establish source freshness.

Model version: trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1

Data version: board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8

Retrieved 2026-11-01T01:38:53.961777+00:00. This is the page retrieval time, not a source update.

Scroll the table to see every column.

Alphabetical player research. Observed points use posted games; future estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. Open a player for forecast dates and missing weeks. Trade values are model units.
PlayerPosTeamObserved points/gameGames playedEstimated future points/gameTrade value
Lamar Jackson QBBAL 19.77421.4865.5

Future projection context

These estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. They do not identify who to start this week; use your league's lineup tool for that decision.

Forecast source
Captured Sleeper future projections
Forecast captured
2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00
Unstarted games through Week 17
9
Weeks with provider forecasts
8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17
Weeks using model fallback
None recorded

Draft context

Historical context, not a weekly ranking or remaining-season forecast.

Full-season preseason projection
315
Draft average position
35.2

Observed production

Observed statistics are separate from model estimates. A missing season block means unavailable data.

This season

Fantasy points
79.1
Games played
4
Observed through week
4
passing yards
967
passing tds
6
interceptions
1
carries
19
rushing yards
144
rushing tds
1
targets
0
receptions
0
receiving yards
0
receiving tds
0
passing first downs
43
rushing first downs
9
receiving first downs
0
fumbles lost
1
Target share in observed games (%)
0
Fantasy points per game
19.77
Yards per carry
7.6
Yards per target
Unavailable
Yards per reception
Unavailable
Catch rate (%)
Unavailable
Total yards
1,111
Yards per game
277.8
touches
19
first downs
9
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
11.6
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
8.8
Opportunity observed through week
4
Opportunity coverage
complete

Previous season

Fantasy points
212.9
Games played
13
Observed through week
18
passing yards
2,549
passing tds
21
interceptions
7
carries
67
rushing yards
349
rushing tds
2
targets
0
receptions
0
receiving yards
0
receiving tds
0
passing first downs
110
rushing first downs
25
receiving first downs
0
fumbles lost
3
Target share in observed games (%)
0
Fantasy points per game
16.38
Yards per carry
5.2
Yards per target
Unavailable
Yards per reception
Unavailable
Catch rate (%)
Unavailable
Total yards
2,898
Yards per game
222.9
touches
67
first downs
25
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
34.9
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
12
Opportunity observed through week
18
Opportunity coverage
complete

This season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
88
Time to throw (seconds)
3.11
Average depth of pass target (yards)
10.25
pass aggressiveness
12.5
Completion percentage above expectation
7.14
pass air to sticks
1.19
pass rating
119.57
rush stacked box pct
Unavailable
rush time to los
Unavailable
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
Unavailable
rush efficiency
Unavailable
rush pct over expected
Unavailable
rec avg separation
Unavailable
rec avg cushion
Unavailable
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
Unavailable
rec air share
Unavailable
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
Unavailable
rec catch pct
Unavailable
rec drops
Unavailable
rec broken tackles
Unavailable
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
Unavailable
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
Unavailable
rush broken tackles
4
pass pressured pct
21.5
pass bad throw pct
16.9
rec drop pct
Unavailable

Previous season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
92.2
Time to throw (seconds)
3.01
Average depth of pass target (yards)
9.11
pass aggressiveness
11.59
Completion percentage above expectation
-2.57
pass air to sticks
0.04
pass rating
103.75
rush stacked box pct
Unavailable
rush time to los
Unavailable
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
Unavailable
rush efficiency
Unavailable
rush pct over expected
Unavailable
rec avg separation
Unavailable
rec avg cushion
Unavailable
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
Unavailable
rec air share
Unavailable
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
Unavailable
rec catch pct
Unavailable
rec drops
Unavailable
rec broken tackles
Unavailable
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
3.84
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
1.37
rush broken tackles
7
pass pressured pct
23.1
pass bad throw pct
17.1
rec drop pct
Unavailable

Player narrative and news

Generated narrative is context, not a verified injury forecast or a weekly recommendation. Inspect its own dates before using it.

Write-up generated: 2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00

The fourth-round price on Jackson is a bet that 2025 was the outlier, and the charting gives that bet more support than the box score does. He played 13 games at 16.9 points per game with his carries down to 5.2 a game, 67 in total, a fraction of his usual workload, and his CPOE slipped to the 25th percentile. What held up matters more: a 90th percentile passer rating, a 93rd percentile aDOT, an 87th percentile time to throw, and a 96th percentile broken-tackle count on the carries he did take, so both the downfield style and the elusiveness still charted like prime Lamar even while completions ran under expectation. The consensus projection has him back near 640 rushing yards, nearly double last season, and that single assumption is most of the distance between his 2025 output and the QB4 projection. Baltimore owning the league's top implied team total on early lines helps too. Taking him at pick 40 as QB2 means paying for the rushing rebound before there is any evidence of it, though his track record makes that leap easier to underwrite than it would be for anyone else.

Latest stored news context

{
  "digest": "Lamar Jackson (ankle) uncertain for practice Wednesday  — Jackson remains hopeful to return in Week 6. His status will need to be monitored in practice over the next few days. ",
  "latest_at": "2026-10-12T19:18:32+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-13T19:00:45.210835+00:00",
  "llm_sentiment": -1,
  "llm_injury_trajectory": -1,
  "llm_severity": 2,
  "llm_weeks_out": 1.0,
  "llm_offfield_risk": 0,
  "llm_key_phrases": "ankle uncertain; hopeful to return; week 6; status will need; uncertain for practice",
  "llm_role_change": 0,
  "llm_usage_outlook": 0,
  "llm_team_context": 0,
  "llm_relevance": 0.9,
  "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-13T19:08:59.923110+00:00",
  "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
  "inference_status": "current"
}

Profile freshness: {"writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "current", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."}

Stored injury context

{
  "status": "absent",
  "exp_miss_next6": 4.563580908816535,
  "as_of": "2026-10-31",
  "source": "curves-v1"
}
Complete source evidence
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  "freshness": {
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      "draft_adp": {
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      "advanced_stats": {
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  "outcome_readiness": {
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  "valuation_context": {
    "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback",
    "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend",
    "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7,
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    "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.",
    "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.",
    "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.",
    "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."
  ],
  "metric_definitions": {
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    "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.",
    "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.",
    "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.",
    "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.",
    "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.",
    "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.",
    "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.",
    "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."
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  "player": {
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    "name": "Lamar Jackson",
    "team": "BAL",
    "pos": "QB",
    "age": 29,
    "exp": 8,
    "injury": null,
    "rookie": false,
    "value": 65.5,
    "ros_ppg": 21.48,
    "games_left": 9,
    "projection": {
      "ros_ppg": 21.483711111111113,
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    "proj": 315,
    "adp": 35.2,
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    "ly": {
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      "g": 13,
      "through_week": 18,
      "passing_yards": 2549.0,
      "passing_tds": 21.0,
      "interceptions": 7.0,
      "carries": 67.0,
      "rushing_yards": 349.0,
      "rushing_tds": 2.0,
      "targets": 0.0,
      "receptions": 0.0,
      "receiving_yards": 0.0,
      "receiving_tds": 0.0,
      "passing_first_downs": 110.0,
      "rushing_first_downs": 25.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 0.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 3.0,
      "tgt_share": 0.0,
      "ppg": 16.38,
      "ypc": 5.2,
      "ypt": null,
      "ypr": null,
      "catch_pct": null,
      "total_yd": 2898.0,
      "ypg": 222.9,
      "touches": 67.0,
      "first_downs": 25.0,
      "xfp": 34.9,
      "xfp_diff": 12.0,
      "xfp_through_week": 18,
      "xfp_coverage": "complete"
    },
    "adv": {
      "snap_pct": 92.2,
      "pass_time_to_throw": 3.01,
      "pass_adot": 9.11,
      "pass_aggressiveness": 11.59,
      "pass_cpoe": -2.57,
      "pass_air_to_sticks": 0.04,
      "pass_rating": 103.75,
      "rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
      "rush_time_to_los": null,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
      "rush_efficiency": null,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": null,
      "rec_avg_separation": null,
      "rec_avg_cushion": null,
      "rec_adot": null,
      "rec_air_share": null,
      "rec_yac_above_exp": null,
      "rec_catch_pct": null,
      "rec_drops": null,
      "rec_broken_tackles": null,
      "rush_ybc_att": 3.84,
      "rush_yac_att": 1.37,
      "rush_broken_tackles": 7.0,
      "pass_pressured_pct": 23.1,
      "pass_bad_throw_pct": 17.1,
      "rec_drop_pct": null
    },
    "ytd": {
      "pts": 79.1,
      "g": 4,
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      "passing_yards": 967.0,
      "passing_tds": 6.0,
      "interceptions": 1.0,
      "carries": 19.0,
      "rushing_yards": 144.0,
      "rushing_tds": 1.0,
      "targets": 0.0,
      "receptions": 0.0,
      "receiving_yards": 0.0,
      "receiving_tds": 0.0,
      "passing_first_downs": 43.0,
      "rushing_first_downs": 9.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 0.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 1.0,
      "tgt_share": 0.0,
      "ppg": 19.77,
      "ypc": 7.6,
      "ypt": null,
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      "touches": 19.0,
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      "pass_adot": 10.25,
      "pass_aggressiveness": 12.5,
      "pass_cpoe": 7.14,
      "pass_air_to_sticks": 1.19,
      "pass_rating": 119.57,
      "rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
      "rush_time_to_los": null,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
      "rush_efficiency": null,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": null,
      "rec_avg_separation": null,
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      "rec_adot": null,
      "rec_air_share": null,
      "rec_yac_above_exp": null,
      "rec_catch_pct": null,
      "rec_drops": null,
      "rec_broken_tackles": null,
      "rush_ybc_att": null,
      "rush_yac_att": null,
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      "pass_bad_throw_pct": 16.9,
      "rec_drop_pct": null
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  },
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    "season": 2026,
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    "freshness": {
      "writeup": "preseason_context",
      "news": "stale",
      "news_inference": "current",
      "injury_outlook": "current",
      "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."
    },
    "writeup": "The fourth-round price on Jackson is a bet that 2025 was the outlier, and the charting gives that bet more support than the box score does. He played 13 games at 16.9 points per game with his carries down to 5.2 a game, 67 in total, a fraction of his usual workload, and his CPOE slipped to the 25th percentile. What held up matters more: a 90th percentile passer rating, a 93rd percentile aDOT, an 87th percentile time to throw, and a 96th percentile broken-tackle count on the carries he did take, so both the downfield style and the elusiveness still charted like prime Lamar even while completions ran under expectation. The consensus projection has him back near 640 rushing yards, nearly double last season, and that single assumption is most of the distance between his 2025 output and the QB4 projection. Baltimore owning the league's top implied team total on early lines helps too. Taking him at pick 40 as QB2 means paying for the rushing rebound before there is any evidence of it, though his track record makes that leap easier to underwrite than it would be for anyone else.",
    "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00",
    "news": {
      "digest": "Lamar Jackson (ankle) uncertain for practice Wednesday  — Jackson remains hopeful to return in Week 6. His status will need to be monitored in practice over the next few days. ",
      "latest_at": "2026-10-12T19:18:32+00:00",
      "updated_at": "2026-10-13T19:00:45.210835+00:00",
      "llm_sentiment": -1,
      "llm_injury_trajectory": -1,
      "llm_severity": 2,
      "llm_weeks_out": 1.0,
      "llm_offfield_risk": 0,
      "llm_key_phrases": "ankle uncertain; hopeful to return; week 6; status will need; uncertain for practice",
      "llm_role_change": 0,
      "llm_usage_outlook": 0,
      "llm_team_context": 0,
      "llm_relevance": 0.9,
      "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-13T19:08:59.923110+00:00",
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      "inference_status": "current"
    },
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    }
  }
}

Use this source carefully