# Lamar Jackson — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/4881 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/4881", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:20:59.875504+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "4881", "name": "Lamar Jackson", "team": "BAL", "pos": "QB", "age": 29, "exp": 8, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 65.5, "ros_ppg": 21.48, "games_left": 9, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 21.483711111111113, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 9 }, "proj": 315, "adp": 35.2, "adp_pr": 2, "ly": { "pts": 212.9, "g": 13, "through_week": 18, "passing_yards": 2549.0, "passing_tds": 21.0, "interceptions": 7.0, "carries": 67.0, "rushing_yards": 349.0, "rushing_tds": 2.0, "targets": 0.0, "receptions": 0.0, "receiving_yards": 0.0, "receiving_tds": 0.0, "passing_first_downs": 110.0, "rushing_first_downs": 25.0, "receiving_first_downs": 0.0, "fumbles_lost": 3.0, "tgt_share": 0.0, "ppg": 16.38, "ypc": 5.2, "ypt": null, "ypr": null, "catch_pct": null, "total_yd": 2898.0, "ypg": 222.9, "touches": 67.0, "first_downs": 25.0, "xfp": 34.9, "xfp_diff": 12.0, "xfp_through_week": 18, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 92.2, "pass_time_to_throw": 3.01, "pass_adot": 9.11, "pass_aggressiveness": 11.59, "pass_cpoe": -2.57, "pass_air_to_sticks": 0.04, "pass_rating": 103.75, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": null, "rec_broken_tackles": null, "rush_ybc_att": 3.84, "rush_yac_att": 1.37, "rush_broken_tackles": 7.0, "pass_pressured_pct": 23.1, "pass_bad_throw_pct": 17.1, "rec_drop_pct": null }, "ytd": { "pts": 79.1, "g": 4, "through_week": 4, "passing_yards": 967.0, "passing_tds": 6.0, "interceptions": 1.0, "carries": 19.0, "rushing_yards": 144.0, "rushing_tds": 1.0, "targets": 0.0, "receptions": 0.0, "receiving_yards": 0.0, "receiving_tds": 0.0, "passing_first_downs": 43.0, "rushing_first_downs": 9.0, "receiving_first_downs": 0.0, "fumbles_lost": 1.0, "tgt_share": 0.0, "ppg": 19.77, "ypc": 7.6, "ypt": null, "ypr": null, "catch_pct": null, "total_yd": 1111.0, "ypg": 277.8, "touches": 19.0, "first_downs": 9.0, "xfp": 11.6, "xfp_diff": 8.8, "xfp_through_week": 4, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 88.0, "pass_time_to_throw": 3.11, "pass_adot": 10.25, "pass_aggressiveness": 12.5, "pass_cpoe": 7.14, "pass_air_to_sticks": 1.19, "pass_rating": 119.57, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": null, "rec_broken_tackles": null, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 4.0, "pass_pressured_pct": 21.5, "pass_bad_throw_pct": 16.9, "rec_drop_pct": null } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "4881", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:20:59.878449+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "current", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "The fourth-round price on Jackson is a bet that 2025 was the outlier, and the charting gives that bet more support than the box score does. He played 13 games at 16.9 points per game with his carries down to 5.2 a game, 67 in total, a fraction of his usual workload, and his CPOE slipped to the 25th percentile. What held up matters more: a 90th percentile passer rating, a 93rd percentile aDOT, an 87th percentile time to throw, and a 96th percentile broken-tackle count on the carries he did take, so both the downfield style and the elusiveness still charted like prime Lamar even while completions ran under expectation. The consensus projection has him back near 640 rushing yards, nearly double last season, and that single assumption is most of the distance between his 2025 output and the QB4 projection. Baltimore owning the league's top implied team total on early lines helps too. Taking him at pick 40 as QB2 means paying for the rushing rebound before there is any evidence of it, though his track record makes that leap easier to underwrite than it would be for anyone else.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Lamar Jackson (ankle) uncertain for practice Wednesday — Jackson remains hopeful to return in Week 6. His status will need to be monitored in practice over the next few days. ", "latest_at": "2026-10-12T19:18:32+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-10-13T19:00:45.210835+00:00", "llm_sentiment": -1, "llm_injury_trajectory": -1, "llm_severity": 2, "llm_weeks_out": 1.0, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "ankle uncertain; hopeful to return; week 6; status will need; uncertain for practice", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": 0, "llm_team_context": 0, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-13T19:08:59.923110+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": { "status": "absent", "exp_miss_next6": 4.563580908816535, "as_of": "2026-10-31", "source": "curves-v1" }, "injury_outlook_last_captured": { "status": "absent", "exp_miss_next6": 4.563580908816535, "as_of": "2026-10-31", "source": "curves-v1" } } } ```