FOOTBALLQUANTS

Player sourcebook / QB · KC

Patrick Mahomes

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Season / week
2026 / 8
Scoring
HALF · 12 teams · 1 QB
Source freshness
partial
Observed season stats
Through week 8; complete through week 7. The latest week may be partial.

Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt.

outcomes
ready
Captured 2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00; complete through week 7
season projection
preseason prior
Captured Unknown
draft adp
preseason context
Captured Unknown
advanced stats
coverage not verified
Captured Unknown
Model version and retrieval details

Model generated: 2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00. Model generation time does not establish source freshness.

Model version: trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1

Data version: board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8

Retrieved 2026-11-01T01:38:40.510959+00:00. This is the page retrieval time, not a source update.

Scroll the table to see every column.

Alphabetical player research. Observed points use posted games; future estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. Open a player for forecast dates and missing weeks. Trade values are model units.
PlayerPosTeamObserved points/gameGames playedEstimated future points/gameTrade value
Patrick Mahomes QBKC 16.68618.6944.8

Future projection context

These estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. They do not identify who to start this week; use your league's lineup tool for that decision.

Forecast source
Captured Sleeper future projections
Forecast captured
2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00
Unstarted games through Week 17
10
Weeks with provider forecasts
8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
Weeks using model fallback
None recorded

Draft context

Historical context, not a weekly ranking or remaining-season forecast.

Full-season preseason projection
290
Draft average position
114.7

Observed production

Observed statistics are separate from model estimates. A missing season block means unavailable data.

This season

Fantasy points
100.1
Games played
6
Observed through week
7
passing yards
1,474
passing tds
9
interceptions
4
carries
19
rushing yards
71
rushing tds
1
targets
0
receptions
0
receiving yards
0
receiving tds
0
passing first downs
65
rushing first downs
6
receiving first downs
0
fumbles lost
0
Target share in observed games (%)
0
Fantasy points per game
16.68
Yards per carry
3.7
Yards per target
Unavailable
Yards per reception
Unavailable
Catch rate (%)
Unavailable
Total yards
1,545
Yards per game
257.5
touches
19
first downs
6
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
7.4
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
5.7
Opportunity observed through week
7
Opportunity coverage
complete

Previous season

Fantasy points
281.2
Games played
14
Observed through week
15
passing yards
3,587
passing tds
22
interceptions
11
carries
64
rushing yards
422
rushing tds
5
targets
1
receptions
1
receiving yards
-10
receiving tds
0
passing first downs
173
rushing first downs
28
receiving first downs
0
fumbles lost
0
Target share in observed games (%)
0.2
Fantasy points per game
20.09
Yards per carry
6.6
Yards per target
-10
Yards per reception
-10
Catch rate (%)
100
Total yards
3,999
Yards per game
285.6
touches
65
first downs
28
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
37.2
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
34.5
Opportunity observed through week
15
Opportunity coverage
complete

This season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
100
Time to throw (seconds)
2.79
Average depth of pass target (yards)
6.21
pass aggressiveness
6.81
Completion percentage above expectation
-2.12
pass air to sticks
-2.32
pass rating
95.32
rush stacked box pct
Unavailable
rush time to los
Unavailable
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
Unavailable
rush efficiency
Unavailable
rush pct over expected
Unavailable
rec avg separation
Unavailable
rec avg cushion
Unavailable
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
Unavailable
rec air share
Unavailable
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
Unavailable
rec catch pct
Unavailable
rec drops
Unavailable
rec broken tackles
Unavailable
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
Unavailable
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
Unavailable
rush broken tackles
0
pass pressured pct
21.3
pass bad throw pct
17.8
rec drop pct
Unavailable

Previous season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
97.4
Time to throw (seconds)
2.79
Average depth of pass target (yards)
7.87
pass aggressiveness
13.35
Completion percentage above expectation
-2.68
pass air to sticks
-0.84
pass rating
89.62
rush stacked box pct
Unavailable
rush time to los
Unavailable
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
Unavailable
rush efficiency
Unavailable
rush pct over expected
Unavailable
rec avg separation
Unavailable
rec avg cushion
Unavailable
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
Unavailable
rec air share
Unavailable
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
Unavailable
rec catch pct
Unavailable
rec drops
0
rec broken tackles
0
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
5.73
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
0.86
rush broken tackles
3
pass pressured pct
20.3
pass bad throw pct
14.5
rec drop pct
0

Player narrative and news

Generated narrative is context, not a verified injury forecast or a weekly recommendation. Inspect its own dates before using it.

Write-up generated: 2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00

Mid-July reporting has Mahomes on track for Week 1 after the knee injury, logging long daily rehab hours, which would make it roughly a nine-month recovery, and his questionable tag currently carries no expected missed games. Set that aside and 2025 was stranger than most people remember. He led all quarterbacks in total yards per game at 285.6 and finished fourth in points per game at 20.9, yet his CPOE sat in the 19th percentile and his passer rating in the bottom half, while a 97th percentile yards-before-contact rate on his carries says most of the 422 rushing yards were untouched scramble yardage. Production outran the underlying passing quality, and the mobility that generated the difference is exactly what a serious knee injury threatens. A ninth-round cost as QB12, against a QB11 consensus projection, already prices in most of the doubt. What you are really evaluating with this pick is a nine-month ligament timeline, and the stat profile, good or bad, is secondary to it.

Latest stored news context

{
  "digest": "Patrick Mahomes II tosses three touchdowns Sunday — Mahomes had an electric game on Sunday night, throwing three touchdowns and totaling nearly 400 yards en route to a narrow win over the Colts. He has been terrific since his return from injury and should be considered a worthwhile starter with week-to-week upside on any given week.",
  "latest_at": "2026-09-21T15:41:57+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-09-22T09:00:23.628001+00:00",
  "llm_sentiment": 1,
  "llm_injury_trajectory": 0,
  "llm_severity": 0,
  "llm_weeks_out": null,
  "llm_offfield_risk": 0,
  "llm_key_phrases": "electric game; three touchdowns; nearly 400 yards; week-to-week upside; worthwhile starter",
  "llm_role_change": 0,
  "llm_usage_outlook": 1,
  "llm_team_context": 0,
  "llm_relevance": 0.9,
  "llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-22T09:03:25.125757+00:00",
  "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
  "inference_status": "current"
}

Profile freshness: {"writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."}

Complete source evidence
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    "age": 31,
    "exp": 9,
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    "value": 44.8,
    "ros_ppg": 18.69,
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      "carries": 64.0,
      "rushing_yards": 422.0,
      "rushing_tds": 5.0,
      "targets": 1.0,
      "receptions": 1.0,
      "receiving_yards": -10.0,
      "receiving_tds": 0.0,
      "passing_first_downs": 173.0,
      "rushing_first_downs": 28.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 0.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 0.0,
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      "ppg": 20.09,
      "ypc": 6.6,
      "ypt": -10.0,
      "ypr": -10.0,
      "catch_pct": 100.0,
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      "touches": 65.0,
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      "pass_time_to_throw": 2.79,
      "pass_adot": 7.87,
      "pass_aggressiveness": 13.35,
      "pass_cpoe": -2.68,
      "pass_air_to_sticks": -0.84,
      "pass_rating": 89.62,
      "rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
      "rush_time_to_los": null,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
      "rush_efficiency": null,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": null,
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Use this source carefully