Player sourcebook / QB · KC
Patrick Mahomes
Read as Markdown · JSON · Interactive board
- Season / week
- 2026 / 8
- Scoring
- HALF · 12 teams · 1 QB
- Source freshness
- partial
- Observed season stats
- Through week 8; complete through week 7. The latest week may be partial.
Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt.
- outcomes
- ready
Captured 2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00; complete through week 7 - season projection
- preseason prior
Captured Unknown - draft adp
- preseason context
Captured Unknown - advanced stats
- coverage not verified
Captured Unknown
Model version and retrieval details
Model generated: 2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00. Model generation time does not establish source freshness.
Model version: trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1
Data version: board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8
Retrieved 2026-11-01T01:38:40.510959+00:00. This is the page retrieval time, not a source update.
Scroll the table to see every column.
| Player | Pos | Team | Observed points/game | Games played | Estimated future points/game | Trade value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | 16.68 | 6 | 18.69 | 44.8 |
Future projection context
These estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. They do not identify who to start this week; use your league's lineup tool for that decision.
- Forecast source
- Captured Sleeper future projections
- Forecast captured
- 2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00
- Unstarted games through Week 17
- 10
- Weeks with provider forecasts
- 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
- Weeks using model fallback
- None recorded
Draft context
Historical context, not a weekly ranking or remaining-season forecast.
- Full-season preseason projection
- 290
- Draft average position
- 114.7
Observed production
Observed statistics are separate from model estimates. A missing season block means unavailable data.
This season
- Fantasy points
- 100.1
- Games played
- 6
- Observed through week
- 7
- passing yards
- 1,474
- passing tds
- 9
- interceptions
- 4
- carries
- 19
- rushing yards
- 71
- rushing tds
- 1
- targets
- 0
- receptions
- 0
- receiving yards
- 0
- receiving tds
- 0
- passing first downs
- 65
- rushing first downs
- 6
- receiving first downs
- 0
- fumbles lost
- 0
- Target share in observed games (%)
- 0
- Fantasy points per game
- 16.68
- Yards per carry
- 3.7
- Yards per target
- Unavailable
- Yards per reception
- Unavailable
- Catch rate (%)
- Unavailable
- Total yards
- 1,545
- Yards per game
- 257.5
- touches
- 19
- first downs
- 6
- Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
- 7.4
- Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
- 5.7
- Opportunity observed through week
- 7
- Opportunity coverage
- complete
Previous season
- Fantasy points
- 281.2
- Games played
- 14
- Observed through week
- 15
- passing yards
- 3,587
- passing tds
- 22
- interceptions
- 11
- carries
- 64
- rushing yards
- 422
- rushing tds
- 5
- targets
- 1
- receptions
- 1
- receiving yards
- -10
- receiving tds
- 0
- passing first downs
- 173
- rushing first downs
- 28
- receiving first downs
- 0
- fumbles lost
- 0
- Target share in observed games (%)
- 0.2
- Fantasy points per game
- 20.09
- Yards per carry
- 6.6
- Yards per target
- -10
- Yards per reception
- -10
- Catch rate (%)
- 100
- Total yards
- 3,999
- Yards per game
- 285.6
- touches
- 65
- first downs
- 28
- Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
- 37.2
- Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
- 34.5
- Opportunity observed through week
- 15
- Opportunity coverage
- complete
This season: advanced statistics
- Snap share (%)
- 100
- Time to throw (seconds)
- 2.79
- Average depth of pass target (yards)
- 6.21
- pass aggressiveness
- 6.81
- Completion percentage above expectation
- -2.12
- pass air to sticks
- -2.32
- pass rating
- 95.32
- rush stacked box pct
- Unavailable
- rush time to los
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
- Unavailable
- rush efficiency
- Unavailable
- rush pct over expected
- Unavailable
- rec avg separation
- Unavailable
- rec avg cushion
- Unavailable
- Average depth of receiving target (yards)
- Unavailable
- rec air share
- Unavailable
- Receiving yards after catch above expectation
- Unavailable
- rec catch pct
- Unavailable
- rec drops
- Unavailable
- rec broken tackles
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards before contact per attempt
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards after contact per attempt
- Unavailable
- rush broken tackles
- 0
- pass pressured pct
- 21.3
- pass bad throw pct
- 17.8
- rec drop pct
- Unavailable
Previous season: advanced statistics
- Snap share (%)
- 97.4
- Time to throw (seconds)
- 2.79
- Average depth of pass target (yards)
- 7.87
- pass aggressiveness
- 13.35
- Completion percentage above expectation
- -2.68
- pass air to sticks
- -0.84
- pass rating
- 89.62
- rush stacked box pct
- Unavailable
- rush time to los
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
- Unavailable
- rush efficiency
- Unavailable
- rush pct over expected
- Unavailable
- rec avg separation
- Unavailable
- rec avg cushion
- Unavailable
- Average depth of receiving target (yards)
- Unavailable
- rec air share
- Unavailable
- Receiving yards after catch above expectation
- Unavailable
- rec catch pct
- Unavailable
- rec drops
- 0
- rec broken tackles
- 0
- Rushing yards before contact per attempt
- 5.73
- Rushing yards after contact per attempt
- 0.86
- rush broken tackles
- 3
- pass pressured pct
- 20.3
- pass bad throw pct
- 14.5
- rec drop pct
- 0
Player narrative and news
Generated narrative is context, not a verified injury forecast or a weekly recommendation. Inspect its own dates before using it.
Write-up generated: 2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00
Latest stored news context
{
"digest": "Patrick Mahomes II tosses three touchdowns Sunday — Mahomes had an electric game on Sunday night, throwing three touchdowns and totaling nearly 400 yards en route to a narrow win over the Colts. He has been terrific since his return from injury and should be considered a worthwhile starter with week-to-week upside on any given week.",
"latest_at": "2026-09-21T15:41:57+00:00",
"updated_at": "2026-09-22T09:00:23.628001+00:00",
"llm_sentiment": 1,
"llm_injury_trajectory": 0,
"llm_severity": 0,
"llm_weeks_out": null,
"llm_offfield_risk": 0,
"llm_key_phrases": "electric game; three touchdowns; nearly 400 yards; week-to-week upside; worthwhile starter",
"llm_role_change": 0,
"llm_usage_outlook": 1,
"llm_team_context": 0,
"llm_relevance": 0.9,
"llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-22T09:03:25.125757+00:00",
"llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
"inference_status": "current"
}Profile freshness: {"writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."}
Complete source evidence
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"draft_adp": {
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"outcome_readiness": {
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"fresh": true,
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"status": "ready"
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"valuation_context": {
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"fallback_phase": "in_season_blend",
"fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7,
"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true,
"advanced_stats_priced": false,
"injury_outlook": "annotation_only",
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"value_locked": null,
"ytd_through_week": 8,
"ytd_complete_through_week": 7,
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"limitations": [
"Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.",
"generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.",
"Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.",
"Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.",
"League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."
],
"metric_definitions": {
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"adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.",
"ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.",
"tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.",
"ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.",
"projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.",
"value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.",
"xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.",
"xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."
},
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"player": {
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"name": "Patrick Mahomes",
"team": "KC",
"pos": "QB",
"age": 31,
"exp": 9,
"injury": null,
"rookie": false,
"value": 44.8,
"ros_ppg": 18.69,
"games_left": 10,
"projection": {
"ros_ppg": 18.6876,
"source": "sleeper_future",
"captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00",
"covered_weeks": [
8,
9,
10,
11,
12,
13,
14,
15,
16,
17
],
"missing_weeks": [],
"remaining_games": 10
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"proj": 290,
"adp": 114.7,
"adp_pr": 13,
"ly": {
"pts": 281.2,
"g": 14,
"through_week": 15,
"passing_yards": 3587.0,
"passing_tds": 22.0,
"interceptions": 11.0,
"carries": 64.0,
"rushing_yards": 422.0,
"rushing_tds": 5.0,
"targets": 1.0,
"receptions": 1.0,
"receiving_yards": -10.0,
"receiving_tds": 0.0,
"passing_first_downs": 173.0,
"rushing_first_downs": 28.0,
"receiving_first_downs": 0.0,
"fumbles_lost": 0.0,
"tgt_share": 0.2,
"ppg": 20.09,
"ypc": 6.6,
"ypt": -10.0,
"ypr": -10.0,
"catch_pct": 100.0,
"total_yd": 3999.0,
"ypg": 285.6,
"touches": 65.0,
"first_downs": 28.0,
"xfp": 37.2,
"xfp_diff": 34.5,
"xfp_through_week": 15,
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"adv": {
"snap_pct": 97.4,
"pass_time_to_throw": 2.79,
"pass_adot": 7.87,
"pass_aggressiveness": 13.35,
"pass_cpoe": -2.68,
"pass_air_to_sticks": -0.84,
"pass_rating": 89.62,
"rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
"rush_time_to_los": null,
"rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
"rush_efficiency": null,
"rush_pct_over_expected": null,
"rec_avg_separation": null,
"rec_avg_cushion": null,
"rec_adot": null,
"rec_air_share": null,
"rec_yac_above_exp": null,
"rec_catch_pct": null,
"rec_drops": 0.0,
"rec_broken_tackles": 0.0,
"rush_ybc_att": 5.73,
"rush_yac_att": 0.86,
"rush_broken_tackles": 3.0,
"pass_pressured_pct": 20.3,
"pass_bad_throw_pct": 14.5,
"rec_drop_pct": 0.0
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"ytd": {
"pts": 100.1,
"g": 6,
"through_week": 7,
"passing_yards": 1474.0,
"passing_tds": 9.0,
"interceptions": 4.0,
"carries": 19.0,
"rushing_yards": 71.0,
"rushing_tds": 1.0,
"targets": 0.0,
"receptions": 0.0,
"receiving_yards": 0.0,
"receiving_tds": 0.0,
"passing_first_downs": 65.0,
"rushing_first_downs": 6.0,
"receiving_first_downs": 0.0,
"fumbles_lost": 0.0,
"tgt_share": 0.0,
"ppg": 16.68,
"ypc": 3.7,
"ypt": null,
"ypr": null,
"catch_pct": null,
"total_yd": 1545.0,
"ypg": 257.5,
"touches": 19.0,
"first_downs": 6.0,
"xfp": 7.4,
"xfp_diff": 5.7,
"xfp_through_week": 7,
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"adv_ytd": {
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"pass_time_to_throw": 2.79,
"pass_adot": 6.21,
"pass_aggressiveness": 6.81,
"pass_cpoe": -2.12,
"pass_air_to_sticks": -2.32,
"pass_rating": 95.32,
"rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
"rush_time_to_los": null,
"rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
"rush_efficiency": null,
"rush_pct_over_expected": null,
"rec_avg_separation": null,
"rec_avg_cushion": null,
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"rec_air_share": null,
"rec_yac_above_exp": null,
"rec_catch_pct": null,
"rec_drops": null,
"rec_broken_tackles": null,
"rush_ybc_att": null,
"rush_yac_att": null,
"rush_broken_tackles": 0.0,
"pass_pressured_pct": 21.3,
"pass_bad_throw_pct": 17.8,
"rec_drop_pct": null
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},
"profile": {
"sleeper_id": "4046",
"season": 2026,
"as_of": "2026-11-01T01:38:40.517844+00:00",
"freshness": {
"writeup": "preseason_context",
"news": "stale",
"news_inference": "current",
"injury_outlook": "stale",
"note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."
},
"writeup": "Mid-July reporting has Mahomes on track for Week 1 after the knee injury, logging long daily rehab hours, which would make it roughly a nine-month recovery, and his questionable tag currently carries no expected missed games. Set that aside and 2025 was stranger than most people remember. He led all quarterbacks in total yards per game at 285.6 and finished fourth in points per game at 20.9, yet his CPOE sat in the 19th percentile and his passer rating in the bottom half, while a 97th percentile yards-before-contact rate on his carries says most of the 422 rushing yards were untouched scramble yardage. Production outran the underlying passing quality, and the mobility that generated the difference is exactly what a serious knee injury threatens. A ninth-round cost as QB12, against a QB11 consensus projection, already prices in most of the doubt. What you are really evaluating with this pick is a nine-month ligament timeline, and the stat profile, good or bad, is secondary to it.",
"writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00",
"news": {
"digest": "Patrick Mahomes II tosses three touchdowns Sunday — Mahomes had an electric game on Sunday night, throwing three touchdowns and totaling nearly 400 yards en route to a narrow win over the Colts. He has been terrific since his return from injury and should be considered a worthwhile starter with week-to-week upside on any given week.",
"latest_at": "2026-09-21T15:41:57+00:00",
"updated_at": "2026-09-22T09:00:23.628001+00:00",
"llm_sentiment": 1,
"llm_injury_trajectory": 0,
"llm_severity": 0,
"llm_weeks_out": null,
"llm_offfield_risk": 0,
"llm_key_phrases": "electric game; three touchdowns; nearly 400 yards; week-to-week upside; worthwhile starter",
"llm_role_change": 0,
"llm_usage_outlook": 1,
"llm_team_context": 0,
"llm_relevance": 0.9,
"llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-22T09:03:25.125757+00:00",
"llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
"inference_status": "current"
},
"injury_outlook": null,
"injury_outlook_last_captured": {
"status": "questionable",
"exp_miss_next6": null,
"as_of": "2026-09-10",
"source": "curves-v1"
}
}
}Use this source carefully
- Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.
- generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.
- Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.
- Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.
- League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring.