{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/4046","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:17:14.833110+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"4046","name":"Patrick Mahomes","team":"KC","pos":"QB","age":31,"exp":9,"injury":null,"rookie":false,"value":44.8,"ros_ppg":18.69,"games_left":10,"projection":{"ros_ppg":18.6876,"source":"sleeper_future","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[],"remaining_games":10},"proj":290,"adp":114.7,"adp_pr":13,"ly":{"pts":281.2,"g":14,"through_week":15,"passing_yards":3587.0,"passing_tds":22.0,"interceptions":11.0,"carries":64.0,"rushing_yards":422.0,"rushing_tds":5.0,"targets":1.0,"receptions":1.0,"receiving_yards":-10.0,"receiving_tds":0.0,"passing_first_downs":173.0,"rushing_first_downs":28.0,"receiving_first_downs":0.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":0.2,"ppg":20.09,"ypc":6.6,"ypt":-10.0,"ypr":-10.0,"catch_pct":100.0,"total_yd":3999.0,"ypg":285.6,"touches":65.0,"first_downs":28.0,"xfp":37.2,"xfp_diff":34.5,"xfp_through_week":15,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":97.4,"pass_time_to_throw":2.79,"pass_adot":7.87,"pass_aggressiveness":13.35,"pass_cpoe":-2.68,"pass_air_to_sticks":-0.84,"pass_rating":89.62,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":0.0,"rec_broken_tackles":0.0,"rush_ybc_att":5.73,"rush_yac_att":0.86,"rush_broken_tackles":3.0,"pass_pressured_pct":20.3,"pass_bad_throw_pct":14.5,"rec_drop_pct":0.0},"ytd":{"pts":100.1,"g":6,"through_week":7,"passing_yards":1474.0,"passing_tds":9.0,"interceptions":4.0,"carries":19.0,"rushing_yards":71.0,"rushing_tds":1.0,"targets":0.0,"receptions":0.0,"receiving_yards":0.0,"receiving_tds":0.0,"passing_first_downs":65.0,"rushing_first_downs":6.0,"receiving_first_downs":0.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":0.0,"ppg":16.68,"ypc":3.7,"ypt":null,"ypr":null,"catch_pct":null,"total_yd":1545.0,"ypg":257.5,"touches":19.0,"first_downs":6.0,"xfp":7.4,"xfp_diff":5.7,"xfp_through_week":7,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":100.0,"pass_time_to_throw":2.79,"pass_adot":6.21,"pass_aggressiveness":6.81,"pass_cpoe":-2.12,"pass_air_to_sticks":-2.32,"pass_rating":95.32,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":null,"rec_broken_tackles":null,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":0.0,"pass_pressured_pct":21.3,"pass_bad_throw_pct":17.8,"rec_drop_pct":null}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"4046","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:17:14.850294+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"stale","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Mid-July reporting has Mahomes on track for Week 1 after the knee injury, logging long daily rehab hours, which would make it roughly a nine-month recovery, and his questionable tag currently carries no expected missed games. Set that aside and 2025 was stranger than most people remember. He led all quarterbacks in total yards per game at 285.6 and finished fourth in points per game at 20.9, yet his CPOE sat in the 19th percentile and his passer rating in the bottom half, while a 97th percentile yards-before-contact rate on his carries says most of the 422 rushing yards were untouched scramble yardage. Production outran the underlying passing quality, and the mobility that generated the difference is exactly what a serious knee injury threatens. A ninth-round cost as QB12, against a QB11 consensus projection, already prices in most of the doubt. What you are really evaluating with this pick is a nine-month ligament timeline, and the stat profile, good or bad, is secondary to it.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"Patrick Mahomes II tosses three touchdowns Sunday — Mahomes had an electric game on Sunday night, throwing three touchdowns and totaling nearly 400 yards en route to a narrow win over the Colts. He has been terrific since his return from injury and should be considered a worthwhile starter with week-to-week upside on any given week.","latest_at":"2026-09-21T15:41:57+00:00","updated_at":"2026-09-22T09:00:23.628001+00:00","llm_sentiment":1,"llm_injury_trajectory":0,"llm_severity":0,"llm_weeks_out":null,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"electric game; three touchdowns; nearly 400 yards; week-to-week upside; worthwhile starter","llm_role_change":0,"llm_usage_outlook":1,"llm_team_context":0,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-09-22T09:03:25.125757+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":null,"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"questionable","exp_miss_next6":null,"as_of":"2026-09-10","source":"curves-v1"}}}