FOOTBALLQUANTS

Player sourcebook / RB · SF

Christian McCaffrey

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Season / week
2026 / 8
Scoring
HALF · 12 teams · 1 QB
Source freshness
partial
Observed season stats
Through week 8; complete through week 7. The latest week may be partial.

Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt.

outcomes
ready
Captured 2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00; complete through week 7
season projection
preseason prior
Captured Unknown
draft adp
preseason context
Captured Unknown
advanced stats
coverage not verified
Captured Unknown
Model version and retrieval details

Model generated: 2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00. Model generation time does not establish source freshness.

Model version: trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1

Data version: board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8

Retrieved 2026-11-01T01:38:41.960947+00:00. This is the page retrieval time, not a source update.

Scroll the table to see every column.

Alphabetical player research. Observed points use posted games; future estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. Open a player for forecast dates and missing weeks. Trade values are model units.
PlayerPosTeamObserved points/gameGames playedEstimated future points/gameTrade value
Christian McCaffrey RBSF 18.14718.52109.7

Future projection context

These estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. They do not identify who to start this week; use your league's lineup tool for that decision.

Forecast source
Captured Sleeper future projections
Forecast captured
2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00
Unstarted games through Week 17
9
Weeks with provider forecasts
9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
Weeks using model fallback
None recorded

Draft context

Historical context, not a weekly ranking or remaining-season forecast.

Full-season preseason projection
296
Draft average position
4.2

Observed production

Observed statistics are separate from model estimates. A missing season block means unavailable data.

This season

Fantasy points
127
Games played
7
Observed through week
7
passing yards
0
passing tds
0
interceptions
0
carries
84
rushing yards
389
rushing tds
8
targets
42
receptions
34
receiving yards
251
receiving tds
0
passing first downs
0
rushing first downs
22
receiving first downs
11
fumbles lost
1
Target share in observed games (%)
20.5
Fantasy points per game
18.14
Yards per carry
4.6
Yards per target
6
Yards per reception
7.4
Catch rate (%)
81
Total yards
640
Yards per game
91.4
touches
118
first downs
33
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
119.6
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
9.4
Opportunity observed through week
7
Opportunity coverage
complete

Previous season

Fantasy points
365.6
Games played
17
Observed through week
18
passing yards
0
passing tds
0
interceptions
0
carries
311
rushing yards
1,202
rushing tds
10
targets
129
receptions
102
receiving yards
924
receiving tds
7
passing first downs
0
rushing first downs
74
receiving first downs
48
fumbles lost
0
Target share in observed games (%)
23.5
Fantasy points per game
21.51
Yards per carry
3.9
Yards per target
7.2
Yards per reception
9.1
Catch rate (%)
79.1
Total yards
2,126
Yards per game
125.1
touches
413
first downs
122
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
370.2
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
-4.6
Opportunity observed through week
18
Opportunity coverage
complete

This season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
69
Time to throw (seconds)
Unavailable
Average depth of pass target (yards)
Unavailable
pass aggressiveness
Unavailable
Completion percentage above expectation
Unavailable
pass air to sticks
Unavailable
pass rating
Unavailable
rush stacked box pct
27.38
rush time to los
2.51
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
0.36
rush efficiency
3.49
rush pct over expected
0.41
rec avg separation
Unavailable
rec avg cushion
Unavailable
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
Unavailable
rec air share
Unavailable
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
Unavailable
rec catch pct
Unavailable
rec drops
0
rec broken tackles
3
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
2.73
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
1.9
rush broken tackles
2
pass pressured pct
Unavailable
pass bad throw pct
Unavailable
rec drop pct
0

Previous season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
83.1
Time to throw (seconds)
Unavailable
Average depth of pass target (yards)
Unavailable
pass aggressiveness
Unavailable
Completion percentage above expectation
Unavailable
pass air to sticks
Unavailable
pass rating
Unavailable
rush stacked box pct
28.94
rush time to los
2.71
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
-0.54
rush efficiency
4.43
rush pct over expected
0.36
rec avg separation
Unavailable
rec avg cushion
Unavailable
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
Unavailable
rec air share
Unavailable
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
Unavailable
rec catch pct
Unavailable
rec drops
8
rec broken tackles
11
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
2.27
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
1.54
rush broken tackles
12
pass pressured pct
Unavailable
pass bad throw pct
Unavailable
rec drop pct
6.2

Player narrative and news

Generated narrative is context, not a verified injury forecast or a weekly recommendation. Inspect its own dates before using it.

Write-up generated: 2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00

Volume was the entire Christian McCaffrey story last season. His 413 touches, 129 targets, and 24.8 percent target share all led the position, his 83 percent snap share was the highest of any back, and his usage was worth 370 expected points, first by a wide margin, with actual scoring landing five points under that. He converted the biggest workload in football at par because the per-touch numbers went gray: 3.9 a carry, rush yards over expected in the 7th percentile, yards after contact in the 12th, and a position-high eight drops. The receiving still graded well, 9.1 a catch with the most receiving first downs among backs, so the catch-driven floor is real and San Francisco's top-seven implied totals support it. Taking him at 5.7 in half-PPR at age 30 is a bet that the workload transfers intact one more year, and the consensus projection of 303 and RB3 already assumes most of it does. On the ground the margin looks gone, which leaves the target volume carrying most of the case.

Latest stored news context

{
  "digest": "Christian McCaffrey scores touchdown in win Sunday — McCaffrey didn't have his biggest day from a yardage standpoint, but he found the end zone on a one-yard run in the fourth quarter. He finished with 18 touches and remains the clear lead back in San Francisco. McCaffrey remains a must-start option heading into Week 5 against Seattle.",
  "latest_at": "2026-10-05T19:19:39+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-06T19:00:45.612292+00:00",
  "llm_sentiment": 1,
  "llm_injury_trajectory": 0,
  "llm_severity": 0,
  "llm_weeks_out": null,
  "llm_offfield_risk": 0,
  "llm_key_phrases": "scores touchdown; clear lead back; must-start option; 18 touches; week 5",
  "llm_role_change": 0,
  "llm_usage_outlook": 0,
  "llm_team_context": 0,
  "llm_relevance": 0.9,
  "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-06T19:10:01.326240+00:00",
  "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
  "inference_status": "current"
}

Profile freshness: {"writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "current", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."}

Stored injury context

{
  "status": "questionable",
  "exp_miss_next6": 1.6780349575271793,
  "as_of": "2026-10-31",
  "source": "curves-v1"
}
Complete source evidence
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      "draft_adp": {
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  "valuation_context": {
    "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback",
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    "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7,
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    "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.",
    "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.",
    "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.",
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    "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.",
    "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.",
    "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."
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    "name": "Christian McCaffrey",
    "team": "SF",
    "pos": "RB",
    "age": 30,
    "exp": 9,
    "injury": "Questionable",
    "rookie": false,
    "value": 109.7,
    "ros_ppg": 18.52,
    "games_left": 9,
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      "ros_ppg": 18.523,
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      "rushing_yards": 1202.0,
      "rushing_tds": 10.0,
      "targets": 129.0,
      "receptions": 102.0,
      "receiving_yards": 924.0,
      "receiving_tds": 7.0,
      "passing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "rushing_first_downs": 74.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 48.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 0.0,
      "tgt_share": 23.5,
      "ppg": 21.51,
      "ypc": 3.9,
      "ypt": 7.2,
      "ypr": 9.1,
      "catch_pct": 79.1,
      "total_yd": 2126.0,
      "ypg": 125.1,
      "touches": 413.0,
      "first_downs": 122.0,
      "xfp": 370.2,
      "xfp_diff": -4.6,
      "xfp_through_week": 18,
      "xfp_coverage": "complete"
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    "adv": {
      "snap_pct": 83.1,
      "pass_time_to_throw": null,
      "pass_adot": null,
      "pass_aggressiveness": null,
      "pass_cpoe": null,
      "pass_air_to_sticks": null,
      "pass_rating": null,
      "rush_stacked_box_pct": 28.94,
      "rush_time_to_los": 2.71,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": -0.54,
      "rush_efficiency": 4.43,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": 0.36,
      "rec_avg_separation": null,
      "rec_avg_cushion": null,
      "rec_adot": null,
      "rec_air_share": null,
      "rec_yac_above_exp": null,
      "rec_catch_pct": null,
      "rec_drops": 8.0,
      "rec_broken_tackles": 11.0,
      "rush_ybc_att": 2.27,
      "rush_yac_att": 1.54,
      "rush_broken_tackles": 12.0,
      "pass_pressured_pct": null,
      "pass_bad_throw_pct": null,
      "rec_drop_pct": 6.2
    },
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      "carries": 84.0,
      "rushing_yards": 389.0,
      "rushing_tds": 8.0,
      "targets": 42.0,
      "receptions": 34.0,
      "receiving_yards": 251.0,
      "receiving_tds": 0.0,
      "passing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "rushing_first_downs": 22.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 11.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 1.0,
      "tgt_share": 20.5,
      "ppg": 18.14,
      "ypc": 4.6,
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      "rush_stacked_box_pct": 27.38,
      "rush_time_to_los": 2.51,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": 0.36,
      "rush_efficiency": 3.49,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": 0.41,
      "rec_avg_separation": null,
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    "freshness": {
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      "news": "stale",
      "news_inference": "current",
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    },
    "writeup": "Volume was the entire Christian McCaffrey story last season. His 413 touches, 129 targets, and 24.8 percent target share all led the position, his 83 percent snap share was the highest of any back, and his usage was worth 370 expected points, first by a wide margin, with actual scoring landing five points under that. He converted the biggest workload in football at par because the per-touch numbers went gray: 3.9 a carry, rush yards over expected in the 7th percentile, yards after contact in the 12th, and a position-high eight drops. The receiving still graded well, 9.1 a catch with the most receiving first downs among backs, so the catch-driven floor is real and San Francisco's top-seven implied totals support it. Taking him at 5.7 in half-PPR at age 30 is a bet that the workload transfers intact one more year, and the consensus projection of 303 and RB3 already assumes most of it does. On the ground the margin looks gone, which leaves the target volume carrying most of the case.",
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    "news": {
      "digest": "Christian McCaffrey scores touchdown in win Sunday — McCaffrey didn't have his biggest day from a yardage standpoint, but he found the end zone on a one-yard run in the fourth quarter. He finished with 18 touches and remains the clear lead back in San Francisco. McCaffrey remains a must-start option heading into Week 5 against Seattle.",
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      "llm_weeks_out": null,
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      "llm_role_change": 0,
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}

Use this source carefully