# Christian McCaffrey — FootballQuants player source

Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/4034

Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes.

```json
{
  "schema_version": "public-sources.v1",
  "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/4034",
  "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:19:49.751202+00:00",
  "season": 2026,
  "week": 8,
  "last_season": 2025,
  "fmt": "half",
  "teams": 12,
  "qb": 1,
  "mode": "inseason",
  "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8",
  "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1",
  "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00",
  "freshness": {
    "status": "partial",
    "expected_season": 2026,
    "served_season": 2026,
    "expected_week": 8,
    "warnings": [],
    "sources": {
      "outcomes": {
        "status": "ready",
        "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00",
        "completed_through_week": 7
      },
      "season_projection": {
        "status": "preseason_prior",
        "captured_at": null
      },
      "draft_adp": {
        "status": "preseason_context",
        "captured_at": null
      },
      "advanced_stats": {
        "status": "coverage_not_verified",
        "captured_at": null
      }
    },
    "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."
  },
  "outcome_readiness": {
    "completed_week": 7,
    "fresh": true,
    "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00",
    "status": "ready"
  },
  "valuation_context": {
    "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback",
    "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend",
    "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7,
    "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true,
    "advanced_stats_priced": false,
    "injury_outlook": "annotation_only",
    "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games"
  },
  "value_locked": null,
  "ytd_through_week": 8,
  "ytd_complete_through_week": 7,
  "sources": [
    {
      "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board",
      "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.",
    "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.",
    "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.",
    "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.",
    "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."
  ],
  "metric_definitions": {
    "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.",
    "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.",
    "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.",
    "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.",
    "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.",
    "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.",
    "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.",
    "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.",
    "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."
  },
  "access": {
    "public": true,
    "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app",
    "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect"
  },
  "player": {
    "sleeper_id": "4034",
    "name": "Christian McCaffrey",
    "team": "SF",
    "pos": "RB",
    "age": 30,
    "exp": 9,
    "injury": "Questionable",
    "rookie": false,
    "value": 109.7,
    "ros_ppg": 18.52,
    "games_left": 9,
    "projection": {
      "ros_ppg": 18.523,
      "source": "sleeper_future",
      "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00",
      "covered_weeks": [
        9,
        10,
        11,
        12,
        13,
        14,
        15,
        16,
        17
      ],
      "missing_weeks": [],
      "remaining_games": 9
    },
    "proj": 296,
    "adp": 4.2,
    "adp_pr": 3,
    "ly": {
      "pts": 365.6,
      "g": 17,
      "through_week": 18,
      "passing_yards": 0.0,
      "passing_tds": 0.0,
      "interceptions": 0.0,
      "carries": 311.0,
      "rushing_yards": 1202.0,
      "rushing_tds": 10.0,
      "targets": 129.0,
      "receptions": 102.0,
      "receiving_yards": 924.0,
      "receiving_tds": 7.0,
      "passing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "rushing_first_downs": 74.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 48.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 0.0,
      "tgt_share": 23.5,
      "ppg": 21.51,
      "ypc": 3.9,
      "ypt": 7.2,
      "ypr": 9.1,
      "catch_pct": 79.1,
      "total_yd": 2126.0,
      "ypg": 125.1,
      "touches": 413.0,
      "first_downs": 122.0,
      "xfp": 370.2,
      "xfp_diff": -4.6,
      "xfp_through_week": 18,
      "xfp_coverage": "complete"
    },
    "adv": {
      "snap_pct": 83.1,
      "pass_time_to_throw": null,
      "pass_adot": null,
      "pass_aggressiveness": null,
      "pass_cpoe": null,
      "pass_air_to_sticks": null,
      "pass_rating": null,
      "rush_stacked_box_pct": 28.94,
      "rush_time_to_los": 2.71,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": -0.54,
      "rush_efficiency": 4.43,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": 0.36,
      "rec_avg_separation": null,
      "rec_avg_cushion": null,
      "rec_adot": null,
      "rec_air_share": null,
      "rec_yac_above_exp": null,
      "rec_catch_pct": null,
      "rec_drops": 8.0,
      "rec_broken_tackles": 11.0,
      "rush_ybc_att": 2.27,
      "rush_yac_att": 1.54,
      "rush_broken_tackles": 12.0,
      "pass_pressured_pct": null,
      "pass_bad_throw_pct": null,
      "rec_drop_pct": 6.2
    },
    "ytd": {
      "pts": 127.0,
      "g": 7,
      "through_week": 7,
      "passing_yards": 0.0,
      "passing_tds": 0.0,
      "interceptions": 0.0,
      "carries": 84.0,
      "rushing_yards": 389.0,
      "rushing_tds": 8.0,
      "targets": 42.0,
      "receptions": 34.0,
      "receiving_yards": 251.0,
      "receiving_tds": 0.0,
      "passing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "rushing_first_downs": 22.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 11.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 1.0,
      "tgt_share": 20.5,
      "ppg": 18.14,
      "ypc": 4.6,
      "ypt": 6.0,
      "ypr": 7.4,
      "catch_pct": 81.0,
      "total_yd": 640.0,
      "ypg": 91.4,
      "touches": 118.0,
      "first_downs": 33.0,
      "xfp": 119.6,
      "xfp_diff": 9.4,
      "xfp_through_week": 7,
      "xfp_coverage": "complete"
    },
    "adv_ytd": {
      "snap_pct": 69.0,
      "pass_time_to_throw": null,
      "pass_adot": null,
      "pass_aggressiveness": null,
      "pass_cpoe": null,
      "pass_air_to_sticks": null,
      "pass_rating": null,
      "rush_stacked_box_pct": 27.38,
      "rush_time_to_los": 2.51,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": 0.36,
      "rush_efficiency": 3.49,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": 0.41,
      "rec_avg_separation": null,
      "rec_avg_cushion": null,
      "rec_adot": null,
      "rec_air_share": null,
      "rec_yac_above_exp": null,
      "rec_catch_pct": null,
      "rec_drops": 0.0,
      "rec_broken_tackles": 3.0,
      "rush_ybc_att": 2.73,
      "rush_yac_att": 1.9,
      "rush_broken_tackles": 2.0,
      "pass_pressured_pct": null,
      "pass_bad_throw_pct": null,
      "rec_drop_pct": 0.0
    }
  },
  "profile": {
    "sleeper_id": "4034",
    "season": 2026,
    "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:19:49.754477+00:00",
    "freshness": {
      "writeup": "preseason_context",
      "news": "stale",
      "news_inference": "current",
      "injury_outlook": "current",
      "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."
    },
    "writeup": "Volume was the entire Christian McCaffrey story last season. His 413 touches, 129 targets, and 24.8 percent target share all led the position, his 83 percent snap share was the highest of any back, and his usage was worth 370 expected points, first by a wide margin, with actual scoring landing five points under that. He converted the biggest workload in football at par because the per-touch numbers went gray: 3.9 a carry, rush yards over expected in the 7th percentile, yards after contact in the 12th, and a position-high eight drops. The receiving still graded well, 9.1 a catch with the most receiving first downs among backs, so the catch-driven floor is real and San Francisco's top-seven implied totals support it. Taking him at 5.7 in half-PPR at age 30 is a bet that the workload transfers intact one more year, and the consensus projection of 303 and RB3 already assumes most of it does. On the ground the margin looks gone, which leaves the target volume carrying most of the case.",
    "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00",
    "news": {
      "digest": "Christian McCaffrey scores touchdown in win Sunday — McCaffrey didn't have his biggest day from a yardage standpoint, but he found the end zone on a one-yard run in the fourth quarter. He finished with 18 touches and remains the clear lead back in San Francisco. McCaffrey remains a must-start option heading into Week 5 against Seattle.",
      "latest_at": "2026-10-05T19:19:39+00:00",
      "updated_at": "2026-10-06T19:00:45.612292+00:00",
      "llm_sentiment": 1,
      "llm_injury_trajectory": 0,
      "llm_severity": 0,
      "llm_weeks_out": null,
      "llm_offfield_risk": 0,
      "llm_key_phrases": "scores touchdown; clear lead back; must-start option; 18 touches; week 5",
      "llm_role_change": 0,
      "llm_usage_outlook": 0,
      "llm_team_context": 0,
      "llm_relevance": 0.9,
      "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-06T19:10:01.326240+00:00",
      "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
      "inference_status": "current"
    },
    "injury_outlook": {
      "status": "questionable",
      "exp_miss_next6": 1.6780349575271793,
      "as_of": "2026-10-31",
      "source": "curves-v1"
    },
    "injury_outlook_last_captured": {
      "status": "questionable",
      "exp_miss_next6": 1.6780349575271793,
      "as_of": "2026-10-31",
      "source": "curves-v1"
    }
  }
}
```