FOOTBALLQUANTS

Player sourcebook / WR · SF

Mike Evans

Read as Markdown · JSON · Interactive board

Season / week
2026 / 8
Scoring
HALF · 12 teams · 1 QB
Source freshness
partial
Observed season stats
Through week 8; complete through week 7. The latest week may be partial.

Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt.

outcomes
ready
Captured 2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00; complete through week 7
season projection
preseason prior
Captured Unknown
draft adp
preseason context
Captured Unknown
advanced stats
coverage not verified
Captured Unknown
Model version and retrieval details

Model generated: 2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00. Model generation time does not establish source freshness.

Model version: trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1

Data version: board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8

Retrieved 2026-11-01T01:38:53.319760+00:00. This is the page retrieval time, not a source update.

Scroll the table to see every column.

Alphabetical player research. Observed points use posted games; future estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. Open a player for forecast dates and missing weeks. Trade values are model units.
PlayerPosTeamObserved points/gameGames playedEstimated future points/gameTrade value
Mike Evans WRSF 12.25615.3670.5

Future projection context

These estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. They do not identify who to start this week; use your league's lineup tool for that decision.

Forecast source
Captured Sleeper future projections
Forecast captured
2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00
Unstarted games through Week 17
9
Weeks with provider forecasts
9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
Weeks using model fallback
None recorded

Draft context

Historical context, not a weekly ranking or remaining-season forecast.

Full-season preseason projection
163
Draft average position
62.1

Observed production

Observed statistics are separate from model estimates. A missing season block means unavailable data.

This season

Fantasy points
73.5
Games played
6
Observed through week
6
passing yards
0
passing tds
0
interceptions
0
carries
0
rushing yards
0
rushing tds
0
targets
39
receptions
27
receiving yards
420
receiving tds
3
passing first downs
0
rushing first downs
0
receiving first downs
25
fumbles lost
0
Target share in observed games (%)
23.5
Fantasy points per game
12.25
Yards per carry
Unavailable
Yards per target
10.8
Yards per reception
15.6
Catch rate (%)
69.2
Total yards
420
Yards per game
70
touches
27
first downs
25
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
65.2
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
8.3
Opportunity observed through week
6
Opportunity coverage
complete

Previous season

Fantasy points
69.8
Games played
8
Observed through week
18
passing yards
0
passing tds
0
interceptions
0
carries
0
rushing yards
0
rushing tds
0
targets
62
receptions
30
receiving yards
368
receiving tds
3
passing first downs
0
rushing first downs
0
receiving first downs
23
fumbles lost
0
Target share in observed games (%)
23.1
Fantasy points per game
8.72
Yards per carry
Unavailable
Yards per target
5.9
Yards per reception
12.3
Catch rate (%)
48.4
Total yards
368
Yards per game
46
touches
30
first downs
23
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
99.9
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
-30.1
Opportunity observed through week
18
Opportunity coverage
complete

This season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
54
Time to throw (seconds)
Unavailable
Average depth of pass target (yards)
Unavailable
pass aggressiveness
Unavailable
Completion percentage above expectation
Unavailable
pass air to sticks
Unavailable
pass rating
Unavailable
rush stacked box pct
Unavailable
rush time to los
Unavailable
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
Unavailable
rush efficiency
Unavailable
rush pct over expected
Unavailable
rec avg separation
1.77
rec avg cushion
5.28
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
14.41
rec air share
34.74
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
0.11
rec catch pct
69.23
rec drops
0
rec broken tackles
0
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
Unavailable
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
Unavailable
rush broken tackles
Unavailable
pass pressured pct
Unavailable
pass bad throw pct
Unavailable
rec drop pct
0

Previous season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
65.6
Time to throw (seconds)
Unavailable
Average depth of pass target (yards)
Unavailable
pass aggressiveness
Unavailable
Completion percentage above expectation
Unavailable
pass air to sticks
Unavailable
pass rating
Unavailable
rush stacked box pct
Unavailable
rush time to los
Unavailable
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
Unavailable
rush efficiency
Unavailable
rush pct over expected
Unavailable
rec avg separation
1.92
rec avg cushion
5.34
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
13.56
rec air share
19.33
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
-0.51
rec catch pct
48.39
rec drops
2
rec broken tackles
0
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
Unavailable
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
Unavailable
rush broken tackles
Unavailable
pass pressured pct
Unavailable
pass bad throw pct
Unavailable
rec drop pct
3.2

Player narrative and news

Generated narrative is context, not a verified injury forecast or a weekly recommendation. Inspect its own dates before using it.

Write-up generated: 2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00

Age shows up in charting before it shows up in box scores, and Evans' 2025 charting was grim: second-to-last separation among qualified receivers at 1.92 yards, a 48.4 percent catch rate in the 6th percentile, yards after catch over expected near the bottom, 5.9 yards per target. The counterweight is that he also underperformed his expected points by 30 across an eight-game season, one of the position's worst shortfalls, so the results overstate the decline at least somewhat. San Francisco changes the surroundings, with the seventh-best early implied totals, and drafters have responded by taking him WR25 in half-PPR, five spots ahead of a WR30 consensus projection of 164 points. That premium pays for the name and the landing spot rather than anything in the recent data. A 13.6-yard aDOT contested profile at 32 can absolutely deliver one more touchdown-driven season in a good offense, and the usage-versus-output gap argues the catches should partly come back. Just know that every measurable that usually tracks receiver aging moved against him last year.

Latest stored news context

{
  "digest": "Mike Evans (ribs) off injury report Sunday  — Evans returned to practice on Friday. He will be a WR2 play for fantasy managers. ",
  "latest_at": "2026-10-09T21:51:59+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-11T19:00:23.388436+00:00",
  "llm_sentiment": 1,
  "llm_injury_trajectory": 1,
  "llm_severity": 1,
  "llm_weeks_out": null,
  "llm_offfield_risk": 0,
  "llm_key_phrases": "ribs off injury report; returned to practice; wr2 play; off injury report sunday",
  "llm_role_change": 0,
  "llm_usage_outlook": 0,
  "llm_team_context": 0,
  "llm_relevance": 0.9,
  "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-11T19:06:56.315552+00:00",
  "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
  "inference_status": "current"
}

Profile freshness: {"writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "current", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."}

Stored injury context

{
  "status": "out",
  "exp_miss_next6": 3.440915580938783,
  "as_of": "2026-10-31",
  "source": "curves-v1"
}
Complete source evidence
{
  "schema_version": "public-sources.v1",
  "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/2216",
  "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T01:38:53.319760+00:00",
  "season": 2026,
  "week": 8,
  "last_season": 2025,
  "fmt": "half",
  "teams": 12,
  "qb": 1,
  "mode": "inseason",
  "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8",
  "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1",
  "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00",
  "freshness": {
    "status": "partial",
    "expected_season": 2026,
    "served_season": 2026,
    "expected_week": 8,
    "warnings": [],
    "sources": {
      "outcomes": {
        "status": "ready",
        "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00",
        "completed_through_week": 7
      },
      "season_projection": {
        "status": "preseason_prior",
        "captured_at": null
      },
      "draft_adp": {
        "status": "preseason_context",
        "captured_at": null
      },
      "advanced_stats": {
        "status": "coverage_not_verified",
        "captured_at": null
      }
    },
    "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."
  },
  "outcome_readiness": {
    "completed_week": 7,
    "fresh": true,
    "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00",
    "status": "ready"
  },
  "valuation_context": {
    "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback",
    "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend",
    "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7,
    "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true,
    "advanced_stats_priced": false,
    "injury_outlook": "annotation_only",
    "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games"
  },
  "value_locked": null,
  "ytd_through_week": 8,
  "ytd_complete_through_week": 7,
  "sources": [
    {
      "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board",
      "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.",
    "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.",
    "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.",
    "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.",
    "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."
  ],
  "metric_definitions": {
    "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.",
    "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.",
    "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.",
    "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.",
    "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.",
    "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.",
    "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.",
    "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.",
    "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."
  },
  "access": {
    "public": true,
    "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app",
    "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect"
  },
  "player": {
    "sleeper_id": "2216",
    "name": "Mike Evans",
    "team": "SF",
    "pos": "WR",
    "age": 33,
    "exp": 12,
    "injury": "Out",
    "rookie": false,
    "value": 70.5,
    "ros_ppg": 15.36,
    "games_left": 9,
    "projection": {
      "ros_ppg": 15.356000000000003,
      "source": "sleeper_future",
      "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00",
      "covered_weeks": [
        9,
        10,
        11,
        12,
        13,
        14,
        15,
        16,
        17
      ],
      "missing_weeks": [],
      "remaining_games": 9
    },
    "proj": 163,
    "adp": 62.1,
    "adp_pr": 27,
    "ly": {
      "pts": 69.8,
      "g": 8,
      "through_week": 18,
      "passing_yards": 0.0,
      "passing_tds": 0.0,
      "interceptions": 0.0,
      "carries": 0.0,
      "rushing_yards": 0.0,
      "rushing_tds": 0.0,
      "targets": 62.0,
      "receptions": 30.0,
      "receiving_yards": 368.0,
      "receiving_tds": 3.0,
      "passing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "rushing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 23.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 0.0,
      "tgt_share": 23.1,
      "ppg": 8.72,
      "ypc": null,
      "ypt": 5.9,
      "ypr": 12.3,
      "catch_pct": 48.4,
      "total_yd": 368.0,
      "ypg": 46.0,
      "touches": 30.0,
      "first_downs": 23.0,
      "xfp": 99.9,
      "xfp_diff": -30.1,
      "xfp_through_week": 18,
      "xfp_coverage": "complete"
    },
    "adv": {
      "snap_pct": 65.6,
      "pass_time_to_throw": null,
      "pass_adot": null,
      "pass_aggressiveness": null,
      "pass_cpoe": null,
      "pass_air_to_sticks": null,
      "pass_rating": null,
      "rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
      "rush_time_to_los": null,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
      "rush_efficiency": null,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": null,
      "rec_avg_separation": 1.92,
      "rec_avg_cushion": 5.34,
      "rec_adot": 13.56,
      "rec_air_share": 19.33,
      "rec_yac_above_exp": -0.51,
      "rec_catch_pct": 48.39,
      "rec_drops": 2.0,
      "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0,
      "rush_ybc_att": null,
      "rush_yac_att": null,
      "rush_broken_tackles": null,
      "pass_pressured_pct": null,
      "pass_bad_throw_pct": null,
      "rec_drop_pct": 3.2
    },
    "ytd": {
      "pts": 73.5,
      "g": 6,
      "through_week": 6,
      "passing_yards": 0.0,
      "passing_tds": 0.0,
      "interceptions": 0.0,
      "carries": 0.0,
      "rushing_yards": 0.0,
      "rushing_tds": 0.0,
      "targets": 39.0,
      "receptions": 27.0,
      "receiving_yards": 420.0,
      "receiving_tds": 3.0,
      "passing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "rushing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 25.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 0.0,
      "tgt_share": 23.5,
      "ppg": 12.25,
      "ypc": null,
      "ypt": 10.8,
      "ypr": 15.6,
      "catch_pct": 69.2,
      "total_yd": 420.0,
      "ypg": 70.0,
      "touches": 27.0,
      "first_downs": 25.0,
      "xfp": 65.2,
      "xfp_diff": 8.3,
      "xfp_through_week": 6,
      "xfp_coverage": "complete"
    },
    "adv_ytd": {
      "snap_pct": 54.0,
      "pass_time_to_throw": null,
      "pass_adot": null,
      "pass_aggressiveness": null,
      "pass_cpoe": null,
      "pass_air_to_sticks": null,
      "pass_rating": null,
      "rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
      "rush_time_to_los": null,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
      "rush_efficiency": null,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": null,
      "rec_avg_separation": 1.77,
      "rec_avg_cushion": 5.28,
      "rec_adot": 14.41,
      "rec_air_share": 34.74,
      "rec_yac_above_exp": 0.11,
      "rec_catch_pct": 69.23,
      "rec_drops": 0.0,
      "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0,
      "rush_ybc_att": null,
      "rush_yac_att": null,
      "rush_broken_tackles": null,
      "pass_pressured_pct": null,
      "pass_bad_throw_pct": null,
      "rec_drop_pct": 0.0
    }
  },
  "profile": {
    "sleeper_id": "2216",
    "season": 2026,
    "as_of": "2026-11-01T01:38:53.324146+00:00",
    "freshness": {
      "writeup": "preseason_context",
      "news": "stale",
      "news_inference": "current",
      "injury_outlook": "current",
      "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."
    },
    "writeup": "Age shows up in charting before it shows up in box scores, and Evans' 2025 charting was grim: second-to-last separation among qualified receivers at 1.92 yards, a 48.4 percent catch rate in the 6th percentile, yards after catch over expected near the bottom, 5.9 yards per target. The counterweight is that he also underperformed his expected points by 30 across an eight-game season, one of the position's worst shortfalls, so the results overstate the decline at least somewhat. San Francisco changes the surroundings, with the seventh-best early implied totals, and drafters have responded by taking him WR25 in half-PPR, five spots ahead of a WR30 consensus projection of 164 points. That premium pays for the name and the landing spot rather than anything in the recent data. A 13.6-yard aDOT contested profile at 32 can absolutely deliver one more touchdown-driven season in a good offense, and the usage-versus-output gap argues the catches should partly come back. Just know that every measurable that usually tracks receiver aging moved against him last year.",
    "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00",
    "news": {
      "digest": "Mike Evans (ribs) off injury report Sunday  — Evans returned to practice on Friday. He will be a WR2 play for fantasy managers. ",
      "latest_at": "2026-10-09T21:51:59+00:00",
      "updated_at": "2026-10-11T19:00:23.388436+00:00",
      "llm_sentiment": 1,
      "llm_injury_trajectory": 1,
      "llm_severity": 1,
      "llm_weeks_out": null,
      "llm_offfield_risk": 0,
      "llm_key_phrases": "ribs off injury report; returned to practice; wr2 play; off injury report sunday",
      "llm_role_change": 0,
      "llm_usage_outlook": 0,
      "llm_team_context": 0,
      "llm_relevance": 0.9,
      "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-11T19:06:56.315552+00:00",
      "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
      "inference_status": "current"
    },
    "injury_outlook": {
      "status": "out",
      "exp_miss_next6": 3.440915580938783,
      "as_of": "2026-10-31",
      "source": "curves-v1"
    },
    "injury_outlook_last_captured": {
      "status": "out",
      "exp_miss_next6": 3.440915580938783,
      "as_of": "2026-10-31",
      "source": "curves-v1"
    }
  }
}

Use this source carefully