{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/2216","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:18:14.903252+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"2216","name":"Mike Evans","team":"SF","pos":"WR","age":33,"exp":12,"injury":"Out","rookie":false,"value":70.5,"ros_ppg":15.36,"games_left":9,"projection":{"ros_ppg":15.356000000000003,"source":"sleeper_future","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[],"remaining_games":9},"proj":163,"adp":62.1,"adp_pr":27,"ly":{"pts":69.8,"g":8,"through_week":18,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":0.0,"rushing_yards":0.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":62.0,"receptions":30.0,"receiving_yards":368.0,"receiving_tds":3.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":0.0,"receiving_first_downs":23.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":23.1,"ppg":8.72,"ypc":null,"ypt":5.9,"ypr":12.3,"catch_pct":48.4,"total_yd":368.0,"ypg":46.0,"touches":30.0,"first_downs":23.0,"xfp":99.9,"xfp_diff":-30.1,"xfp_through_week":18,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":65.6,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":1.92,"rec_avg_cushion":5.34,"rec_adot":13.56,"rec_air_share":19.33,"rec_yac_above_exp":-0.51,"rec_catch_pct":48.39,"rec_drops":2.0,"rec_broken_tackles":0.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":null,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":3.2},"ytd":{"pts":73.5,"g":6,"through_week":6,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":0.0,"rushing_yards":0.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":39.0,"receptions":27.0,"receiving_yards":420.0,"receiving_tds":3.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":0.0,"receiving_first_downs":25.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":23.5,"ppg":12.25,"ypc":null,"ypt":10.8,"ypr":15.6,"catch_pct":69.2,"total_yd":420.0,"ypg":70.0,"touches":27.0,"first_downs":25.0,"xfp":65.2,"xfp_diff":8.3,"xfp_through_week":6,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":54.0,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":1.77,"rec_avg_cushion":5.28,"rec_adot":14.41,"rec_air_share":34.74,"rec_yac_above_exp":0.11,"rec_catch_pct":69.23,"rec_drops":0.0,"rec_broken_tackles":0.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":null,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":0.0}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"2216","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:18:14.914201+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"current","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Age shows up in charting before it shows up in box scores, and Evans' 2025 charting was grim: second-to-last separation among qualified receivers at 1.92 yards, a 48.4 percent catch rate in the 6th percentile, yards after catch over expected near the bottom, 5.9 yards per target. The counterweight is that he also underperformed his expected points by 30 across an eight-game season, one of the position's worst shortfalls, so the results overstate the decline at least somewhat. San Francisco changes the surroundings, with the seventh-best early implied totals, and drafters have responded by taking him WR25 in half-PPR, five spots ahead of a WR30 consensus projection of 164 points. That premium pays for the name and the landing spot rather than anything in the recent data. A 13.6-yard aDOT contested profile at 32 can absolutely deliver one more touchdown-driven season in a good offense, and the usage-versus-output gap argues the catches should partly come back. Just know that every measurable that usually tracks receiver aging moved against him last year.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"Mike Evans (ribs) off injury report Sunday  — Evans returned to practice on Friday. He will be a WR2 play for fantasy managers. ","latest_at":"2026-10-09T21:51:59+00:00","updated_at":"2026-10-11T19:00:23.388436+00:00","llm_sentiment":1,"llm_injury_trajectory":1,"llm_severity":1,"llm_weeks_out":null,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"ribs off injury report; returned to practice; wr2 play; off injury report sunday","llm_role_change":0,"llm_usage_outlook":0,"llm_team_context":0,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-10-11T19:06:56.315552+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":{"status":"out","exp_miss_next6":3.440915580938783,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"},"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"out","exp_miss_next6":3.440915580938783,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"}}}