Player sourcebook / WR · CHI
Luther Burden III
Read as Markdown · JSON · Interactive board
- Season / week
- 2026 / 8
- Scoring
- HALF · 12 teams · 1 QB
- Source freshness
- partial
- Observed season stats
- Through week 8; complete through week 7. The latest week may be partial.
Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt.
- outcomes
- ready
Captured 2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00; complete through week 7 - season projection
- preseason prior
Captured Unknown - draft adp
- preseason context
Captured Unknown - advanced stats
- coverage not verified
Captured Unknown
Model version and retrieval details
Model generated: 2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00. Model generation time does not establish source freshness.
Model version: trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1
Data version: board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8
Retrieved 2026-11-01T01:41:11.925284+00:00. This is the page retrieval time, not a source update.
Scroll the table to see every column.
| Player | Pos | Team | Observed points/game | Games played | Estimated future points/game | Trade value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luther Burden III | WR | CHI | 11.36 | 7 | 11.15 | 32.6 |
Future projection context
These estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. They do not identify who to start this week; use your league's lineup tool for that decision.
- Forecast source
- Captured Sleeper future projections
- Forecast captured
- 2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00
- Unstarted games through Week 17
- 9
- Weeks with provider forecasts
- 8, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
- Weeks using model fallback
- None recorded
Draft context
Historical context, not a weekly ranking or remaining-season forecast.
- Full-season preseason projection
- 172
- Draft average position
- 60
Observed production
Observed statistics are separate from model estimates. A missing season block means unavailable data.
This season
- Fantasy points
- 79.5
- Games played
- 7
- Observed through week
- 7
- passing yards
- 0
- passing tds
- 0
- interceptions
- 0
- carries
- 8
- rushing yards
- 29
- rushing tds
- 0
- targets
- 47
- receptions
- 35
- receiving yards
- 491
- receiving tds
- 2
- passing first downs
- 0
- rushing first downs
- 2
- receiving first downs
- 17
- fumbles lost
- 1
- Target share in observed games (%)
- 21
- Fantasy points per game
- 11.36
- Yards per carry
- 3.6
- Yards per target
- 10.4
- Yards per reception
- 14
- Catch rate (%)
- 74.5
- Total yards
- 520
- Yards per game
- 74.3
- touches
- 43
- first downs
- 19
- Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
- 71.2
- Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
- 10.3
- Opportunity observed through week
- 7
- Opportunity coverage
- complete
Previous season
- Fantasy points
- 104.4
- Games played
- 15
- Observed through week
- 18
- passing yards
- 0
- passing tds
- 0
- interceptions
- 0
- carries
- 6
- rushing yards
- 37
- rushing tds
- 0
- targets
- 60
- receptions
- 47
- receiving yards
- 652
- receiving tds
- 2
- passing first downs
- 0
- rushing first downs
- 3
- receiving first downs
- 27
- fumbles lost
- 0
- Target share in observed games (%)
- 12.8
- Fantasy points per game
- 6.96
- Yards per carry
- 6.2
- Yards per target
- 10.9
- Yards per reception
- 13.9
- Catch rate (%)
- 78.3
- Total yards
- 689
- Yards per game
- 45.9
- touches
- 53
- first downs
- 30
- Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
- 77.3
- Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
- 27.1
- Opportunity observed through week
- 18
- Opportunity coverage
- complete
This season: advanced statistics
- Snap share (%)
- 60.6
- Time to throw (seconds)
- Unavailable
- Average depth of pass target (yards)
- Unavailable
- pass aggressiveness
- Unavailable
- Completion percentage above expectation
- Unavailable
- pass air to sticks
- Unavailable
- pass rating
- Unavailable
- rush stacked box pct
- Unavailable
- rush time to los
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
- Unavailable
- rush efficiency
- Unavailable
- rush pct over expected
- Unavailable
- rec avg separation
- 3.27
- rec avg cushion
- 7.34
- Average depth of receiving target (yards)
- 8.05
- rec air share
- 25.6
- Receiving yards after catch above expectation
- 2.17
- rec catch pct
- 74.47
- rec drops
- 1
- rec broken tackles
- 5
- Rushing yards before contact per attempt
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards after contact per attempt
- Unavailable
- rush broken tackles
- 0
- pass pressured pct
- Unavailable
- pass bad throw pct
- Unavailable
- rec drop pct
- 2.1
Previous season: advanced statistics
- Snap share (%)
- 39.7
- Time to throw (seconds)
- Unavailable
- Average depth of pass target (yards)
- Unavailable
- pass aggressiveness
- Unavailable
- Completion percentage above expectation
- Unavailable
- pass air to sticks
- Unavailable
- pass rating
- Unavailable
- rush stacked box pct
- Unavailable
- rush time to los
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
- Unavailable
- rush efficiency
- Unavailable
- rush pct over expected
- Unavailable
- rec avg separation
- 4.62
- rec avg cushion
- 7.33
- Average depth of receiving target (yards)
- 7.28
- rec air share
- 9.74
- Receiving yards after catch above expectation
- 0.93
- rec catch pct
- 78.33
- rec drops
- 5
- rec broken tackles
- 2
- Rushing yards before contact per attempt
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards after contact per attempt
- Unavailable
- rush broken tackles
- 1
- pass pressured pct
- Unavailable
- pass bad throw pct
- Unavailable
- rec drop pct
- 8.3
Player narrative and news
Generated narrative is context, not a verified injury forecast or a weekly recommendation. Inspect its own dates before using it.
Write-up generated: 2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00
Latest stored news context
{
"digest": "Luther Burden III finds the end zone in Week 3 — Burden found the end zone on an eight-yard pass from Case Keenum in the first quarter. The veteran wideout led the Bears in targets and receptions on Monday night, although Kalif Raymond topped him with 90 receiving yards. Burden has 15 catches for 156 yards and one touchdown through three games. He will be a solid fantasy option in Week 4 against the Jets.",
"latest_at": "2026-09-29T09:27:09+00:00",
"updated_at": "2026-09-30T09:00:23.381086+00:00",
"llm_sentiment": 1,
"llm_injury_trajectory": 0,
"llm_severity": 0,
"llm_weeks_out": null,
"llm_offfield_risk": 0,
"llm_key_phrases": "finds the end zone; led the bears in targets; solid fantasy option; eight-yard pass; veteran wideout",
"llm_role_change": 0,
"llm_usage_outlook": 1,
"llm_team_context": 0,
"llm_relevance": 0.9,
"llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-30T09:11:30.319686+00:00",
"llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
"inference_status": "current"
}Profile freshness: {"writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."}
Complete source evidence
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"season": 2026,
"week": 8,
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"fmt": "half",
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"qb": 1,
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"expected_week": 8,
"warnings": [],
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"draft_adp": {
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"advanced_stats": {
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"note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."
},
"outcome_readiness": {
"completed_week": 7,
"fresh": true,
"checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00",
"status": "ready"
},
"valuation_context": {
"phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback",
"fallback_phase": "in_season_blend",
"fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7,
"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true,
"advanced_stats_priced": false,
"injury_outlook": "annotation_only",
"remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games"
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"value_locked": null,
"ytd_through_week": 8,
"ytd_complete_through_week": 7,
"sources": [
{
"name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board",
"url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"
}
],
"limitations": [
"Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.",
"generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.",
"Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.",
"Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.",
"League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."
],
"metric_definitions": {
"proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.",
"adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.",
"ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.",
"tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.",
"ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.",
"projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.",
"value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.",
"xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.",
"xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."
},
"access": {
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"player": {
"sleeper_id": "12519",
"name": "Luther Burden III",
"team": "CHI",
"pos": "WR",
"age": 22,
"exp": 1,
"injury": null,
"rookie": false,
"value": 32.6,
"ros_ppg": 11.15,
"games_left": 9,
"projection": {
"ros_ppg": 11.151444444444444,
"source": "sleeper_future",
"captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00",
"covered_weeks": [
8,
9,
11,
12,
13,
14,
15,
16,
17
],
"missing_weeks": [],
"remaining_games": 9
},
"proj": 172,
"adp": 60.0,
"adp_pr": 26,
"ly": {
"pts": 104.4,
"g": 15,
"through_week": 18,
"passing_yards": 0.0,
"passing_tds": 0.0,
"interceptions": 0.0,
"carries": 6.0,
"rushing_yards": 37.0,
"rushing_tds": 0.0,
"targets": 60.0,
"receptions": 47.0,
"receiving_yards": 652.0,
"receiving_tds": 2.0,
"passing_first_downs": 0.0,
"rushing_first_downs": 3.0,
"receiving_first_downs": 27.0,
"fumbles_lost": 0.0,
"tgt_share": 12.8,
"ppg": 6.96,
"ypc": 6.2,
"ypt": 10.9,
"ypr": 13.9,
"catch_pct": 78.3,
"total_yd": 689.0,
"ypg": 45.9,
"touches": 53.0,
"first_downs": 30.0,
"xfp": 77.3,
"xfp_diff": 27.1,
"xfp_through_week": 18,
"xfp_coverage": "complete"
},
"adv": {
"snap_pct": 39.7,
"pass_time_to_throw": null,
"pass_adot": null,
"pass_aggressiveness": null,
"pass_cpoe": null,
"pass_air_to_sticks": null,
"pass_rating": null,
"rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
"rush_time_to_los": null,
"rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
"rush_efficiency": null,
"rush_pct_over_expected": null,
"rec_avg_separation": 4.62,
"rec_avg_cushion": 7.33,
"rec_adot": 7.28,
"rec_air_share": 9.74,
"rec_yac_above_exp": 0.93,
"rec_catch_pct": 78.33,
"rec_drops": 5.0,
"rec_broken_tackles": 2.0,
"rush_ybc_att": null,
"rush_yac_att": null,
"rush_broken_tackles": 1.0,
"pass_pressured_pct": null,
"pass_bad_throw_pct": null,
"rec_drop_pct": 8.3
},
"ytd": {
"pts": 79.5,
"g": 7,
"through_week": 7,
"passing_yards": 0.0,
"passing_tds": 0.0,
"interceptions": 0.0,
"carries": 8.0,
"rushing_yards": 29.0,
"rushing_tds": 0.0,
"targets": 47.0,
"receptions": 35.0,
"receiving_yards": 491.0,
"receiving_tds": 2.0,
"passing_first_downs": 0.0,
"rushing_first_downs": 2.0,
"receiving_first_downs": 17.0,
"fumbles_lost": 1.0,
"tgt_share": 21.0,
"ppg": 11.36,
"ypc": 3.6,
"ypt": 10.4,
"ypr": 14.0,
"catch_pct": 74.5,
"total_yd": 520.0,
"ypg": 74.3,
"touches": 43.0,
"first_downs": 19.0,
"xfp": 71.2,
"xfp_diff": 10.3,
"xfp_through_week": 7,
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"adv_ytd": {
"snap_pct": 60.6,
"pass_time_to_throw": null,
"pass_adot": null,
"pass_aggressiveness": null,
"pass_cpoe": null,
"pass_air_to_sticks": null,
"pass_rating": null,
"rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
"rush_time_to_los": null,
"rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
"rush_efficiency": null,
"rush_pct_over_expected": null,
"rec_avg_separation": 3.27,
"rec_avg_cushion": 7.34,
"rec_adot": 8.05,
"rec_air_share": 25.6,
"rec_yac_above_exp": 2.17,
"rec_catch_pct": 74.47,
"rec_drops": 1.0,
"rec_broken_tackles": 5.0,
"rush_ybc_att": null,
"rush_yac_att": null,
"rush_broken_tackles": 0.0,
"pass_pressured_pct": null,
"pass_bad_throw_pct": null,
"rec_drop_pct": 2.1
}
},
"profile": {
"sleeper_id": "12519",
"season": 2026,
"as_of": "2026-11-01T01:41:11.927965+00:00",
"freshness": {
"writeup": "preseason_context",
"news": "stale",
"news_inference": "current",
"injury_outlook": "stale",
"note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."
},
"writeup": "Burden asks for more projection faith than anyone going near him. Burden's rookie charting was spectacular in miniature: a 78.3 percent catch rate that led all qualified receivers, 4.63 yards of average separation that also ranked first, 10.9 yards per target in the 93rd percentile, and 27 more points than his usage predicted, a top-ten overshoot. Every one of those numbers came from a sub-40 percent snap share (4th percentile), with a 7.3-yard aDOT and under 10 percent of Chicago's air yards. That is what a manufactured-touch package looks like in the data, right down to defenses playing him with the third-largest cushion at the position. He also dropped five of his sixty targets, the quiet flaw in the shiny catch rate. Standard-format drafters take him WR17 in the fourth round, while the consensus projection, which must price the role he actually holds, sits at WR28 with 170 points. Chicago's implied totals rank eighth, so the environment would reward a bigger role generously. The snaps have to come first, though, and the depth chart still lists him second.",
"writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00",
"news": {
"digest": "Luther Burden III finds the end zone in Week 3 — Burden found the end zone on an eight-yard pass from Case Keenum in the first quarter. The veteran wideout led the Bears in targets and receptions on Monday night, although Kalif Raymond topped him with 90 receiving yards. Burden has 15 catches for 156 yards and one touchdown through three games. He will be a solid fantasy option in Week 4 against the Jets.",
"latest_at": "2026-09-29T09:27:09+00:00",
"updated_at": "2026-09-30T09:00:23.381086+00:00",
"llm_sentiment": 1,
"llm_injury_trajectory": 0,
"llm_severity": 0,
"llm_weeks_out": null,
"llm_offfield_risk": 0,
"llm_key_phrases": "finds the end zone; led the bears in targets; solid fantasy option; eight-yard pass; veteran wideout",
"llm_role_change": 0,
"llm_usage_outlook": 1,
"llm_team_context": 0,
"llm_relevance": 0.9,
"llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-30T09:11:30.319686+00:00",
"llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
"inference_status": "current"
},
"injury_outlook": null,
"injury_outlook_last_captured": {
"status": "questionable",
"exp_miss_next6": null,
"as_of": "2026-09-09",
"source": "curves-v1"
}
}
}Use this source carefully
- Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.
- generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.
- Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.
- Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.
- League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring.