# Luther Burden III — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/12519 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/12519", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:25:19.166556+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "12519", "name": "Luther Burden III", "team": "CHI", "pos": "WR", "age": 22, "exp": 1, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 32.6, "ros_ppg": 11.15, "games_left": 9, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 11.151444444444444, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 8, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 9 }, "proj": 172, "adp": 60.0, "adp_pr": 26, "ly": { "pts": 104.4, "g": 15, "through_week": 18, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 6.0, "rushing_yards": 37.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 60.0, "receptions": 47.0, "receiving_yards": 652.0, "receiving_tds": 2.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 3.0, "receiving_first_downs": 27.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 12.8, "ppg": 6.96, "ypc": 6.2, "ypt": 10.9, "ypr": 13.9, "catch_pct": 78.3, "total_yd": 689.0, "ypg": 45.9, "touches": 53.0, "first_downs": 30.0, "xfp": 77.3, "xfp_diff": 27.1, "xfp_through_week": 18, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 39.7, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 4.62, "rec_avg_cushion": 7.33, "rec_adot": 7.28, "rec_air_share": 9.74, "rec_yac_above_exp": 0.93, "rec_catch_pct": 78.33, "rec_drops": 5.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 2.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 1.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 8.3 }, "ytd": { "pts": 79.5, "g": 7, "through_week": 7, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 8.0, "rushing_yards": 29.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 47.0, "receptions": 35.0, "receiving_yards": 491.0, "receiving_tds": 2.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 2.0, "receiving_first_downs": 17.0, "fumbles_lost": 1.0, "tgt_share": 21.0, "ppg": 11.36, "ypc": 3.6, "ypt": 10.4, "ypr": 14.0, "catch_pct": 74.5, "total_yd": 520.0, "ypg": 74.3, "touches": 43.0, "first_downs": 19.0, "xfp": 71.2, "xfp_diff": 10.3, "xfp_through_week": 7, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 60.6, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 3.27, "rec_avg_cushion": 7.34, "rec_adot": 8.05, "rec_air_share": 25.6, "rec_yac_above_exp": 2.17, "rec_catch_pct": 74.47, "rec_drops": 1.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 5.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 2.1 } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "12519", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:25:19.169256+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Burden asks for more projection faith than anyone going near him. Burden's rookie charting was spectacular in miniature: a 78.3 percent catch rate that led all qualified receivers, 4.63 yards of average separation that also ranked first, 10.9 yards per target in the 93rd percentile, and 27 more points than his usage predicted, a top-ten overshoot. Every one of those numbers came from a sub-40 percent snap share (4th percentile), with a 7.3-yard aDOT and under 10 percent of Chicago's air yards. That is what a manufactured-touch package looks like in the data, right down to defenses playing him with the third-largest cushion at the position. He also dropped five of his sixty targets, the quiet flaw in the shiny catch rate. Standard-format drafters take him WR17 in the fourth round, while the consensus projection, which must price the role he actually holds, sits at WR28 with 170 points. Chicago's implied totals rank eighth, so the environment would reward a bigger role generously. The snaps have to come first, though, and the depth chart still lists him second.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Luther Burden III finds the end zone in Week 3 — Burden found the end zone on an eight-yard pass from Case Keenum in the first quarter. The veteran wideout led the Bears in targets and receptions on Monday night, although Kalif Raymond topped him with 90 receiving yards. Burden has 15 catches for 156 yards and one touchdown through three games. He will be a solid fantasy option in Week 4 against the Jets.", "latest_at": "2026-09-29T09:27:09+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-30T09:00:23.381086+00:00", "llm_sentiment": 1, "llm_injury_trajectory": 0, "llm_severity": 0, "llm_weeks_out": null, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "finds the end zone; led the bears in targets; solid fantasy option; eight-yard pass; veteran wideout", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": 1, "llm_team_context": 0, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-30T09:11:30.319686+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": { "status": "questionable", "exp_miss_next6": null, "as_of": "2026-09-09", "source": "curves-v1" } } } ```