FOOTBALLQUANTS

Player sourcebook / TE · IND

Tyler Warren

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Season / week
2026 / 8
Scoring
HALF · 12 teams · 1 QB
Source freshness
partial
Observed season stats
Through week 8; complete through week 7. The latest week may be partial.

Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt.

outcomes
ready
Captured 2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00; complete through week 7
season projection
preseason prior
Captured Unknown
draft adp
preseason context
Captured Unknown
advanced stats
coverage not verified
Captured Unknown
Model version and retrieval details

Model generated: 2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00. Model generation time does not establish source freshness.

Model version: trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1

Data version: board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8

Retrieved 2026-11-01T01:41:11.478050+00:00. This is the page retrieval time, not a source update.

Scroll the table to see every column.

Alphabetical player research. Observed points use posted games; future estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. Open a player for forecast dates and missing weeks. Trade values are model units.
PlayerPosTeamObserved points/gameGames playedEstimated future points/gameTrade value
Tyler Warren TEIND 10.9859.2523.3

Future projection context

These estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. They do not identify who to start this week; use your league's lineup tool for that decision.

Forecast source
Captured Sleeper future projections
Forecast captured
2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00
Unstarted games through Week 17
9
Weeks with provider forecasts
8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17
Weeks using model fallback
None recorded

Draft context

Historical context, not a weekly ranking or remaining-season forecast.

Full-season preseason projection
160
Draft average position
50.9

Observed production

Observed statistics are separate from model estimates. A missing season block means unavailable data.

This season

Fantasy points
54.9
Games played
5
Observed through week
5
passing yards
0
passing tds
0
interceptions
0
carries
3
rushing yards
6
rushing tds
1
targets
36
receptions
30
receiving yards
213
receiving tds
2
passing first downs
0
rushing first downs
3
receiving first downs
10
fumbles lost
0
Target share in observed games (%)
21.7
Fantasy points per game
10.98
Yards per carry
2
Yards per target
5.9
Yards per reception
7.1
Catch rate (%)
83.3
Total yards
219
Yards per game
43.8
touches
33
first downs
13
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
49.7
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
5.2
Opportunity observed through week
5
Opportunity coverage
complete

Previous season

Fantasy points
150.5
Games played
17
Observed through week
18
passing yards
0
passing tds
0
interceptions
0
carries
6
rushing yards
8
rushing tds
1
targets
112
receptions
76
receiving yards
817
receiving tds
4
passing first downs
0
rushing first downs
4
receiving first downs
42
fumbles lost
0
Target share in observed games (%)
21.1
Fantasy points per game
8.85
Yards per carry
1.3
Yards per target
7.3
Yards per reception
10.8
Catch rate (%)
67.9
Total yards
825
Yards per game
48.5
touches
82
first downs
46
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
159
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
-8.5
Opportunity observed through week
18
Opportunity coverage
complete

This season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
91
Time to throw (seconds)
Unavailable
Average depth of pass target (yards)
Unavailable
pass aggressiveness
Unavailable
Completion percentage above expectation
Unavailable
pass air to sticks
Unavailable
pass rating
Unavailable
rush stacked box pct
Unavailable
rush time to los
Unavailable
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
Unavailable
rush efficiency
Unavailable
rush pct over expected
Unavailable
rec avg separation
3.82
rec avg cushion
6.48
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
4.05
rec air share
8.33
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
-0.67
rec catch pct
83.33
rec drops
2
rec broken tackles
1
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
Unavailable
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
Unavailable
rush broken tackles
0
pass pressured pct
Unavailable
pass bad throw pct
Unavailable
rec drop pct
5.6

Previous season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
83.8
Time to throw (seconds)
Unavailable
Average depth of pass target (yards)
Unavailable
pass aggressiveness
Unavailable
Completion percentage above expectation
Unavailable
pass air to sticks
Unavailable
pass rating
Unavailable
rush stacked box pct
Unavailable
rush time to los
Unavailable
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
Unavailable
rush efficiency
Unavailable
rush pct over expected
Unavailable
rec avg separation
3.3
rec avg cushion
5.92
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
5.5
rec air share
14.35
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
0.67
rec catch pct
67.86
rec drops
2
rec broken tackles
4
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
Unavailable
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
Unavailable
rush broken tackles
0
pass pressured pct
Unavailable
pass bad throw pct
Unavailable
rec drop pct
1.8

Player narrative and news

Generated narrative is context, not a verified injury forecast or a weekly recommendation. Inspect its own dates before using it.

Write-up generated: 2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00

Almost nobody at the position saw more work than Warren as a rookie. He drew 112 targets, third among tight ends, a 21.2 percent target share in the 97th percentile, and the second-highest expected points total at the position at 159, with a little designed rushing usage layered on top. He finished eight and a half points under that expectation, a 10th-percentile gap, largely because only 4 of those 112 targets became touchdowns and because his 67.9 percent catch rate sat in the 18th percentile. The drop data argues the catch rate wasn't his doing: a 1.8 percent drop rate on a shallow 5.5-yard aDOT means he almost never put a catchable ball on the ground, which points the finger at target quality. Gaps below expectation that size tend to shrink the next season, and four scores on that many looks has far more room above it than below. The market prices him at 51 overall as the TE4, exactly where the projection lands, so the rebound math comes free rather than at a premium.

Latest stored news context

{
  "digest": "Tyler Warren hauls in touchdown Sunday — The young tight end had an up-and-down night on Sunday. On one hand, he finished with a touchdown and six catches on the night, which led to good results in PPR leagues. On the other hand, he only totaled 21 yards on his seven targets, which is poor as far as efficiency goes. Fantasy managers should continue to expect high volume from him moving forward, especially with Alec Pierce (heel) seemingly set to miss some time.",
  "latest_at": "2026-09-21T16:17:22+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-09-22T09:00:23.628001+00:00",
  "llm_sentiment": 1,
  "llm_injury_trajectory": 0,
  "llm_severity": 0,
  "llm_weeks_out": null,
  "llm_offfield_risk": 0,
  "llm_key_phrases": "touchdown sunday; six catches; high volume; expect high volume; pierce missing",
  "llm_role_change": 0,
  "llm_usage_outlook": 1,
  "llm_team_context": 1,
  "llm_relevance": 0.9,
  "llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-22T09:20:18.430293+00:00",
  "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
  "inference_status": "current"
}

Profile freshness: {"writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "current", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."}

Stored injury context

{
  "status": "absent",
  "exp_miss_next6": 4.21601620415637,
  "as_of": "2026-10-31",
  "source": "curves-v1"
}
Complete source evidence
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  "outcome_readiness": {
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  "valuation_context": {
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    "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.",
    "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.",
    "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.",
    "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."
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    "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.",
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    "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.",
    "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."
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  "player": {
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    "name": "Tyler Warren",
    "team": "IND",
    "pos": "TE",
    "age": 24,
    "exp": 1,
    "injury": null,
    "rookie": false,
    "value": 23.3,
    "ros_ppg": 9.25,
    "games_left": 9,
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      "ros_ppg": 9.246777777777778,
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      "g": 17,
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      "passing_tds": 0.0,
      "interceptions": 0.0,
      "carries": 6.0,
      "rushing_yards": 8.0,
      "rushing_tds": 1.0,
      "targets": 112.0,
      "receptions": 76.0,
      "receiving_yards": 817.0,
      "receiving_tds": 4.0,
      "passing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "rushing_first_downs": 4.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 42.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 0.0,
      "tgt_share": 21.1,
      "ppg": 8.85,
      "ypc": 1.3,
      "ypt": 7.3,
      "ypr": 10.8,
      "catch_pct": 67.9,
      "total_yd": 825.0,
      "ypg": 48.5,
      "touches": 82.0,
      "first_downs": 46.0,
      "xfp": 159.0,
      "xfp_diff": -8.5,
      "xfp_through_week": 18,
      "xfp_coverage": "complete"
    },
    "adv": {
      "snap_pct": 83.8,
      "pass_time_to_throw": null,
      "pass_adot": null,
      "pass_aggressiveness": null,
      "pass_cpoe": null,
      "pass_air_to_sticks": null,
      "pass_rating": null,
      "rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
      "rush_time_to_los": null,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
      "rush_efficiency": null,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": null,
      "rec_avg_separation": 3.3,
      "rec_avg_cushion": 5.92,
      "rec_adot": 5.5,
      "rec_air_share": 14.35,
      "rec_yac_above_exp": 0.67,
      "rec_catch_pct": 67.86,
      "rec_drops": 2.0,
      "rec_broken_tackles": 4.0,
      "rush_ybc_att": null,
      "rush_yac_att": null,
      "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0,
      "pass_pressured_pct": null,
      "pass_bad_throw_pct": null,
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      "receiving_yards": 213.0,
      "receiving_tds": 2.0,
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    "writeup": "Almost nobody at the position saw more work than Warren as a rookie. He drew 112 targets, third among tight ends, a 21.2 percent target share in the 97th percentile, and the second-highest expected points total at the position at 159, with a little designed rushing usage layered on top. He finished eight and a half points under that expectation, a 10th-percentile gap, largely because only 4 of those 112 targets became touchdowns and because his 67.9 percent catch rate sat in the 18th percentile. The drop data argues the catch rate wasn't his doing: a 1.8 percent drop rate on a shallow 5.5-yard aDOT means he almost never put a catchable ball on the ground, which points the finger at target quality. Gaps below expectation that size tend to shrink the next season, and four scores on that many looks has far more room above it than below. The market prices him at 51 overall as the TE4, exactly where the projection lands, so the rebound math comes free rather than at a premium.",
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}

Use this source carefully