{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/12518","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:22:51.914193+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"12518","name":"Tyler Warren","team":"IND","pos":"TE","age":24,"exp":1,"injury":null,"rookie":false,"value":23.3,"ros_ppg":9.25,"games_left":9,"projection":{"ros_ppg":9.246777777777778,"source":"sleeper_future","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[8,9,10,11,12,14,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[],"remaining_games":9},"proj":160,"adp":50.9,"adp_pr":4,"ly":{"pts":150.5,"g":17,"through_week":18,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":6.0,"rushing_yards":8.0,"rushing_tds":1.0,"targets":112.0,"receptions":76.0,"receiving_yards":817.0,"receiving_tds":4.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":4.0,"receiving_first_downs":42.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":21.1,"ppg":8.85,"ypc":1.3,"ypt":7.3,"ypr":10.8,"catch_pct":67.9,"total_yd":825.0,"ypg":48.5,"touches":82.0,"first_downs":46.0,"xfp":159.0,"xfp_diff":-8.5,"xfp_through_week":18,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":83.8,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":3.3,"rec_avg_cushion":5.92,"rec_adot":5.5,"rec_air_share":14.35,"rec_yac_above_exp":0.67,"rec_catch_pct":67.86,"rec_drops":2.0,"rec_broken_tackles":4.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":0.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":1.8},"ytd":{"pts":54.9,"g":5,"through_week":5,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":3.0,"rushing_yards":6.0,"rushing_tds":1.0,"targets":36.0,"receptions":30.0,"receiving_yards":213.0,"receiving_tds":2.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":3.0,"receiving_first_downs":10.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":21.7,"ppg":10.98,"ypc":2.0,"ypt":5.9,"ypr":7.1,"catch_pct":83.3,"total_yd":219.0,"ypg":43.8,"touches":33.0,"first_downs":13.0,"xfp":49.7,"xfp_diff":5.2,"xfp_through_week":5,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":91.0,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":3.82,"rec_avg_cushion":6.48,"rec_adot":4.05,"rec_air_share":8.33,"rec_yac_above_exp":-0.67,"rec_catch_pct":83.33,"rec_drops":2.0,"rec_broken_tackles":1.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":0.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":5.6}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"12518","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:22:51.918161+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"current","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Almost nobody at the position saw more work than Warren as a rookie. He drew 112 targets, third among tight ends, a 21.2 percent target share in the 97th percentile, and the second-highest expected points total at the position at 159, with a little designed rushing usage layered on top. He finished eight and a half points under that expectation, a 10th-percentile gap, largely because only 4 of those 112 targets became touchdowns and because his 67.9 percent catch rate sat in the 18th percentile. The drop data argues the catch rate wasn't his doing: a 1.8 percent drop rate on a shallow 5.5-yard aDOT means he almost never put a catchable ball on the ground, which points the finger at target quality. Gaps below expectation that size tend to shrink the next season, and four scores on that many looks has far more room above it than below. The market prices him at 51 overall as the TE4, exactly where the projection lands, so the rebound math comes free rather than at a premium.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"Tyler Warren hauls in touchdown Sunday — The young tight end had an up-and-down night on Sunday. On one hand, he finished with a touchdown and six catches on the night, which led to good results in PPR leagues. On the other hand, he only totaled 21 yards on his seven targets, which is poor as far as efficiency goes. Fantasy managers should continue to expect high volume from him moving forward, especially with Alec Pierce (heel) seemingly set to miss some time.","latest_at":"2026-09-21T16:17:22+00:00","updated_at":"2026-09-22T09:00:23.628001+00:00","llm_sentiment":1,"llm_injury_trajectory":0,"llm_severity":0,"llm_weeks_out":null,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"touchdown sunday; six catches; high volume; expect high volume; pierce missing","llm_role_change":0,"llm_usage_outlook":1,"llm_team_context":1,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-09-22T09:20:18.430293+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":{"status":"absent","exp_miss_next6":4.21601620415637,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"},"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"absent","exp_miss_next6":4.21601620415637,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"}}}