FOOTBALLQUANTS

Player sourcebook / RB · HOU

Woody Marks

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Season / week
2026 / 8
Scoring
HALF · 12 teams · 1 QB
Source freshness
partial
Observed season stats
Through week 8; complete through week 7. The latest week may be partial.

Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt.

outcomes
ready
Captured 2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00; complete through week 7
season projection
preseason prior
Captured Unknown
draft adp
preseason context
Captured Unknown
advanced stats
coverage not verified
Captured Unknown
Model version and retrieval details

Model generated: 2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00. Model generation time does not establish source freshness.

Model version: trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1

Data version: board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8

Retrieved 2026-11-01T01:39:25.446546+00:00. This is the page retrieval time, not a source update.

Scroll the table to see every column.

Alphabetical player research. Observed points use posted games; future estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. Open a player for forecast dates and missing weeks. Trade values are model units.
PlayerPosTeamObserved points/gameGames playedEstimated future points/gameTrade value
Woody Marks RBHOU 7.9377.8813.9

Future projection context

These estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. They do not identify who to start this week; use your league's lineup tool for that decision.

Forecast source
Captured Sleeper future projections
Forecast captured
2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00
Unstarted games through Week 17
9
Weeks with provider forecasts
9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
Weeks using model fallback
None recorded

Draft context

Historical context, not a weekly ranking or remaining-season forecast.

Full-season preseason projection
114
Draft average position
141.4

Observed production

Observed statistics are separate from model estimates. A missing season block means unavailable data.

This season

Fantasy points
55.5
Games played
7
Observed through week
7
passing yards
0
passing tds
0
interceptions
0
carries
77
rushing yards
271
rushing tds
2
targets
17
receptions
14
receiving yards
94
receiving tds
0
passing first downs
0
rushing first downs
15
receiving first downs
4
fumbles lost
0
Target share in observed games (%)
7.4
Fantasy points per game
7.93
Yards per carry
3.5
Yards per target
5.5
Yards per reception
6.7
Catch rate (%)
82.4
Total yards
365
Yards per game
52.1
touches
91
first downs
19
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
66.5
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
-11
Opportunity observed through week
7
Opportunity coverage
complete

Previous season

Fantasy points
133.1
Games played
16
Observed through week
18
passing yards
0
passing tds
0
interceptions
0
carries
196
rushing yards
703
rushing tds
2
targets
36
receptions
24
receiving yards
208
receiving tds
3
passing first downs
0
rushing first downs
41
receiving first downs
7
fumbles lost
0
Target share in observed games (%)
6.9
Fantasy points per game
8.32
Yards per carry
3.6
Yards per target
5.8
Yards per reception
8.7
Catch rate (%)
66.7
Total yards
911
Yards per game
56.9
touches
220
first downs
48
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
169.8
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
-36.7
Opportunity observed through week
18
Opportunity coverage
complete

This season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
61.7
Time to throw (seconds)
Unavailable
Average depth of pass target (yards)
Unavailable
pass aggressiveness
Unavailable
Completion percentage above expectation
Unavailable
pass air to sticks
Unavailable
pass rating
Unavailable
rush stacked box pct
28.57
rush time to los
2.72
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
-0.44
rush efficiency
4.34
rush pct over expected
0.34
rec avg separation
Unavailable
rec avg cushion
Unavailable
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
Unavailable
rec air share
Unavailable
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
Unavailable
rec catch pct
Unavailable
rec drops
0
rec broken tackles
0
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
2.09
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
1.43
rush broken tackles
5
pass pressured pct
Unavailable
pass bad throw pct
Unavailable
rec drop pct
0

Previous season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
51.5
Time to throw (seconds)
Unavailable
Average depth of pass target (yards)
Unavailable
pass aggressiveness
Unavailable
Completion percentage above expectation
Unavailable
pass air to sticks
Unavailable
pass rating
Unavailable
rush stacked box pct
27.55
rush time to los
2.79
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
0.12
rush efficiency
4.13
rush pct over expected
0.42
rec avg separation
Unavailable
rec avg cushion
Unavailable
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
Unavailable
rec air share
Unavailable
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
Unavailable
rec catch pct
Unavailable
rec drops
2
rec broken tackles
3
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
1.85
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
1.79
rush broken tackles
8
pass pressured pct
Unavailable
pass bad throw pct
Unavailable
rec drop pct
5.6

Player narrative and news

Generated narrative is context, not a verified injury forecast or a weekly recommendation. Inspect its own dates before using it.

Write-up generated: 2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00

Houston gave Marks 220 touches as a rookie, 196 carries plus 24 catches, usage worth about 170 expected points, and he turned them into 133, a 37-point shortfall that ranked dead last among the backs we could measure. The charting spreads the blame around: 1.85 yards before contact per carry sits in the 22nd percentile, so the line gave him very little, while his own 1.79 after contact was only 36th percentile. Gaps that size tend to shrink the following season, and he doesn't need efficiency if the role holds, since his touch volume as a rookie reached the 76th percentile. Consensus has him at 113 points, RB44, essentially matching his RB47 half-PPR price, which means you pay for a repeat of the role and get any rebound for free. Among the sophomore backs going in this range, his floor rests on demonstrated volume rather than a hoped-for promotion. Three receiving touchdowns and a mid-pack target share suggest the passing-down work can stick as well.

Latest stored news context

{
  "digest": "Woody Marks will 'carry the load' for Texans with Montgomery out — Marks had 19 touches on Sunday and he operated as the Texans lead back in 2025, so this is nothing new to him. He's not overly dynamic, despite the coachspeak, but he can get it done for fantasy thanks to volume. He's a low-end RB2, high-end RB3 with the backfield to himself.",
  "latest_at": "2026-10-12T16:33:32+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-13T09:00:05.789124+00:00",
  "llm_sentiment": 1,
  "llm_injury_trajectory": 0,
  "llm_severity": 0,
  "llm_weeks_out": null,
  "llm_offfield_risk": 0,
  "llm_key_phrases": "carry the load; montgomery out; 19 touches; backfield to himself; low-end rb2",
  "llm_role_change": 1,
  "llm_usage_outlook": 1,
  "llm_team_context": 1,
  "llm_relevance": 0.9,
  "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-13T09:20:58.179672+00:00",
  "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
  "inference_status": "current"
}

Profile freshness: {"writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "current", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."}

Stored injury context

{
  "status": "questionable",
  "exp_miss_next6": 1.6780349575271793,
  "as_of": "2026-10-31",
  "source": "curves-v1"
}
Complete source evidence
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      "draft_adp": {
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      "advanced_stats": {
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  "outcome_readiness": {
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  "valuation_context": {
    "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback",
    "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend",
    "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7,
    "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true,
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  "value_locked": null,
  "ytd_through_week": 8,
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    "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.",
    "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.",
    "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.",
    "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."
  ],
  "metric_definitions": {
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    "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.",
    "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.",
    "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.",
    "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.",
    "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.",
    "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.",
    "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.",
    "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."
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  "player": {
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    "name": "Woody Marks",
    "team": "HOU",
    "pos": "RB",
    "age": 25,
    "exp": 1,
    "injury": "Questionable",
    "rookie": false,
    "value": 13.9,
    "ros_ppg": 7.88,
    "games_left": 9,
    "projection": {
      "ros_ppg": 7.876222222222223,
      "source": "sleeper_future",
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    },
    "proj": 114,
    "adp": 141.4,
    "adp_pr": 46,
    "ly": {
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      "g": 16,
      "through_week": 18,
      "passing_yards": 0.0,
      "passing_tds": 0.0,
      "interceptions": 0.0,
      "carries": 196.0,
      "rushing_yards": 703.0,
      "rushing_tds": 2.0,
      "targets": 36.0,
      "receptions": 24.0,
      "receiving_yards": 208.0,
      "receiving_tds": 3.0,
      "passing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "rushing_first_downs": 41.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 7.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 0.0,
      "tgt_share": 6.9,
      "ppg": 8.32,
      "ypc": 3.6,
      "ypt": 5.8,
      "ypr": 8.7,
      "catch_pct": 66.7,
      "total_yd": 911.0,
      "ypg": 56.9,
      "touches": 220.0,
      "first_downs": 48.0,
      "xfp": 169.8,
      "xfp_diff": -36.7,
      "xfp_through_week": 18,
      "xfp_coverage": "complete"
    },
    "adv": {
      "snap_pct": 51.5,
      "pass_time_to_throw": null,
      "pass_adot": null,
      "pass_aggressiveness": null,
      "pass_cpoe": null,
      "pass_air_to_sticks": null,
      "pass_rating": null,
      "rush_stacked_box_pct": 27.55,
      "rush_time_to_los": 2.79,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": 0.12,
      "rush_efficiency": 4.13,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": 0.42,
      "rec_avg_separation": null,
      "rec_avg_cushion": null,
      "rec_adot": null,
      "rec_air_share": null,
      "rec_yac_above_exp": null,
      "rec_catch_pct": null,
      "rec_drops": 2.0,
      "rec_broken_tackles": 3.0,
      "rush_ybc_att": 1.85,
      "rush_yac_att": 1.79,
      "rush_broken_tackles": 8.0,
      "pass_pressured_pct": null,
      "pass_bad_throw_pct": null,
      "rec_drop_pct": 5.6
    },
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      "g": 7,
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      "interceptions": 0.0,
      "carries": 77.0,
      "rushing_yards": 271.0,
      "rushing_tds": 2.0,
      "targets": 17.0,
      "receptions": 14.0,
      "receiving_yards": 94.0,
      "receiving_tds": 0.0,
      "passing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "rushing_first_downs": 15.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 4.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 0.0,
      "tgt_share": 7.4,
      "ppg": 7.93,
      "ypc": 3.5,
      "ypt": 5.5,
      "ypr": 6.7,
      "catch_pct": 82.4,
      "total_yd": 365.0,
      "ypg": 52.1,
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      "first_downs": 19.0,
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      "pass_time_to_throw": null,
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      "pass_cpoe": null,
      "pass_air_to_sticks": null,
      "pass_rating": null,
      "rush_stacked_box_pct": 28.57,
      "rush_time_to_los": 2.72,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": -0.44,
      "rush_efficiency": 4.34,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": 0.34,
      "rec_avg_separation": null,
      "rec_avg_cushion": null,
      "rec_adot": null,
      "rec_air_share": null,
      "rec_yac_above_exp": null,
      "rec_catch_pct": null,
      "rec_drops": 0.0,
      "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0,
      "rush_ybc_att": 2.09,
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      "rec_drop_pct": 0.0
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  "profile": {
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    "season": 2026,
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    "freshness": {
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      "news": "stale",
      "news_inference": "current",
      "injury_outlook": "current",
      "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."
    },
    "writeup": "Houston gave Marks 220 touches as a rookie, 196 carries plus 24 catches, usage worth about 170 expected points, and he turned them into 133, a 37-point shortfall that ranked dead last among the backs we could measure. The charting spreads the blame around: 1.85 yards before contact per carry sits in the 22nd percentile, so the line gave him very little, while his own 1.79 after contact was only 36th percentile. Gaps that size tend to shrink the following season, and he doesn't need efficiency if the role holds, since his touch volume as a rookie reached the 76th percentile. Consensus has him at 113 points, RB44, essentially matching his RB47 half-PPR price, which means you pay for a repeat of the role and get any rebound for free. Among the sophomore backs going in this range, his floor rests on demonstrated volume rather than a hoped-for promotion. Three receiving touchdowns and a mid-pack target share suggest the passing-down work can stick as well.",
    "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00",
    "news": {
      "digest": "Woody Marks will 'carry the load' for Texans with Montgomery out — Marks had 19 touches on Sunday and he operated as the Texans lead back in 2025, so this is nothing new to him. He's not overly dynamic, despite the coachspeak, but he can get it done for fantasy thanks to volume. He's a low-end RB2, high-end RB3 with the backfield to himself.",
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      "llm_severity": 0,
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      "llm_key_phrases": "carry the load; montgomery out; 19 touches; backfield to himself; low-end rb2",
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      "llm_usage_outlook": 1,
      "llm_team_context": 1,
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}

Use this source carefully