# Woody Marks — FootballQuants player source

Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/12474

Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes.

```json
{
  "schema_version": "public-sources.v1",
  "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/12474",
  "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:30:16.531177+00:00",
  "season": 2026,
  "week": 8,
  "last_season": 2025,
  "fmt": "half",
  "teams": 12,
  "qb": 1,
  "mode": "inseason",
  "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8",
  "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1",
  "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00",
  "freshness": {
    "status": "partial",
    "expected_season": 2026,
    "served_season": 2026,
    "expected_week": 8,
    "warnings": [],
    "sources": {
      "outcomes": {
        "status": "ready",
        "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00",
        "completed_through_week": 7
      },
      "season_projection": {
        "status": "preseason_prior",
        "captured_at": null
      },
      "draft_adp": {
        "status": "preseason_context",
        "captured_at": null
      },
      "advanced_stats": {
        "status": "coverage_not_verified",
        "captured_at": null
      }
    },
    "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."
  },
  "outcome_readiness": {
    "completed_week": 7,
    "fresh": true,
    "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00",
    "status": "ready"
  },
  "valuation_context": {
    "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback",
    "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend",
    "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7,
    "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true,
    "advanced_stats_priced": false,
    "injury_outlook": "annotation_only",
    "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games"
  },
  "value_locked": null,
  "ytd_through_week": 8,
  "ytd_complete_through_week": 7,
  "sources": [
    {
      "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board",
      "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.",
    "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.",
    "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.",
    "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.",
    "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."
  ],
  "metric_definitions": {
    "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.",
    "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.",
    "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.",
    "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.",
    "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.",
    "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.",
    "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.",
    "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.",
    "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."
  },
  "access": {
    "public": true,
    "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app",
    "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect"
  },
  "player": {
    "sleeper_id": "12474",
    "name": "Woody Marks",
    "team": "HOU",
    "pos": "RB",
    "age": 25,
    "exp": 1,
    "injury": "Questionable",
    "rookie": false,
    "value": 13.9,
    "ros_ppg": 7.88,
    "games_left": 9,
    "projection": {
      "ros_ppg": 7.876222222222223,
      "source": "sleeper_future",
      "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00",
      "covered_weeks": [
        9,
        10,
        11,
        12,
        13,
        14,
        15,
        16,
        17
      ],
      "missing_weeks": [],
      "remaining_games": 9
    },
    "proj": 114,
    "adp": 141.4,
    "adp_pr": 46,
    "ly": {
      "pts": 133.1,
      "g": 16,
      "through_week": 18,
      "passing_yards": 0.0,
      "passing_tds": 0.0,
      "interceptions": 0.0,
      "carries": 196.0,
      "rushing_yards": 703.0,
      "rushing_tds": 2.0,
      "targets": 36.0,
      "receptions": 24.0,
      "receiving_yards": 208.0,
      "receiving_tds": 3.0,
      "passing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "rushing_first_downs": 41.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 7.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 0.0,
      "tgt_share": 6.9,
      "ppg": 8.32,
      "ypc": 3.6,
      "ypt": 5.8,
      "ypr": 8.7,
      "catch_pct": 66.7,
      "total_yd": 911.0,
      "ypg": 56.9,
      "touches": 220.0,
      "first_downs": 48.0,
      "xfp": 169.8,
      "xfp_diff": -36.7,
      "xfp_through_week": 18,
      "xfp_coverage": "complete"
    },
    "adv": {
      "snap_pct": 51.5,
      "pass_time_to_throw": null,
      "pass_adot": null,
      "pass_aggressiveness": null,
      "pass_cpoe": null,
      "pass_air_to_sticks": null,
      "pass_rating": null,
      "rush_stacked_box_pct": 27.55,
      "rush_time_to_los": 2.79,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": 0.12,
      "rush_efficiency": 4.13,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": 0.42,
      "rec_avg_separation": null,
      "rec_avg_cushion": null,
      "rec_adot": null,
      "rec_air_share": null,
      "rec_yac_above_exp": null,
      "rec_catch_pct": null,
      "rec_drops": 2.0,
      "rec_broken_tackles": 3.0,
      "rush_ybc_att": 1.85,
      "rush_yac_att": 1.79,
      "rush_broken_tackles": 8.0,
      "pass_pressured_pct": null,
      "pass_bad_throw_pct": null,
      "rec_drop_pct": 5.6
    },
    "ytd": {
      "pts": 55.5,
      "g": 7,
      "through_week": 7,
      "passing_yards": 0.0,
      "passing_tds": 0.0,
      "interceptions": 0.0,
      "carries": 77.0,
      "rushing_yards": 271.0,
      "rushing_tds": 2.0,
      "targets": 17.0,
      "receptions": 14.0,
      "receiving_yards": 94.0,
      "receiving_tds": 0.0,
      "passing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "rushing_first_downs": 15.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 4.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 0.0,
      "tgt_share": 7.4,
      "ppg": 7.93,
      "ypc": 3.5,
      "ypt": 5.5,
      "ypr": 6.7,
      "catch_pct": 82.4,
      "total_yd": 365.0,
      "ypg": 52.1,
      "touches": 91.0,
      "first_downs": 19.0,
      "xfp": 66.5,
      "xfp_diff": -11.0,
      "xfp_through_week": 7,
      "xfp_coverage": "complete"
    },
    "adv_ytd": {
      "snap_pct": 61.7,
      "pass_time_to_throw": null,
      "pass_adot": null,
      "pass_aggressiveness": null,
      "pass_cpoe": null,
      "pass_air_to_sticks": null,
      "pass_rating": null,
      "rush_stacked_box_pct": 28.57,
      "rush_time_to_los": 2.72,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": -0.44,
      "rush_efficiency": 4.34,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": 0.34,
      "rec_avg_separation": null,
      "rec_avg_cushion": null,
      "rec_adot": null,
      "rec_air_share": null,
      "rec_yac_above_exp": null,
      "rec_catch_pct": null,
      "rec_drops": 0.0,
      "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0,
      "rush_ybc_att": 2.09,
      "rush_yac_att": 1.43,
      "rush_broken_tackles": 5.0,
      "pass_pressured_pct": null,
      "pass_bad_throw_pct": null,
      "rec_drop_pct": 0.0
    }
  },
  "profile": {
    "sleeper_id": "12474",
    "season": 2026,
    "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:30:16.537024+00:00",
    "freshness": {
      "writeup": "preseason_context",
      "news": "stale",
      "news_inference": "current",
      "injury_outlook": "current",
      "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."
    },
    "writeup": "Houston gave Marks 220 touches as a rookie, 196 carries plus 24 catches, usage worth about 170 expected points, and he turned them into 133, a 37-point shortfall that ranked dead last among the backs we could measure. The charting spreads the blame around: 1.85 yards before contact per carry sits in the 22nd percentile, so the line gave him very little, while his own 1.79 after contact was only 36th percentile. Gaps that size tend to shrink the following season, and he doesn't need efficiency if the role holds, since his touch volume as a rookie reached the 76th percentile. Consensus has him at 113 points, RB44, essentially matching his RB47 half-PPR price, which means you pay for a repeat of the role and get any rebound for free. Among the sophomore backs going in this range, his floor rests on demonstrated volume rather than a hoped-for promotion. Three receiving touchdowns and a mid-pack target share suggest the passing-down work can stick as well.",
    "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00",
    "news": {
      "digest": "Woody Marks will 'carry the load' for Texans with Montgomery out — Marks had 19 touches on Sunday and he operated as the Texans lead back in 2025, so this is nothing new to him. He's not overly dynamic, despite the coachspeak, but he can get it done for fantasy thanks to volume. He's a low-end RB2, high-end RB3 with the backfield to himself.",
      "latest_at": "2026-10-12T16:33:32+00:00",
      "updated_at": "2026-10-13T09:00:05.789124+00:00",
      "llm_sentiment": 1,
      "llm_injury_trajectory": 0,
      "llm_severity": 0,
      "llm_weeks_out": null,
      "llm_offfield_risk": 0,
      "llm_key_phrases": "carry the load; montgomery out; 19 touches; backfield to himself; low-end rb2",
      "llm_role_change": 1,
      "llm_usage_outlook": 1,
      "llm_team_context": 1,
      "llm_relevance": 0.9,
      "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-13T09:20:58.179672+00:00",
      "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
      "inference_status": "current"
    },
    "injury_outlook": {
      "status": "questionable",
      "exp_miss_next6": 1.6780349575271793,
      "as_of": "2026-10-31",
      "source": "curves-v1"
    },
    "injury_outlook_last_captured": {
      "status": "questionable",
      "exp_miss_next6": 1.6780349575271793,
      "as_of": "2026-10-31",
      "source": "curves-v1"
    }
  }
}
```