FOOTBALLQUANTS

Player sourcebook / WR · BUF

Keon Coleman

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Season / week
2026 / 8
Scoring
HALF · 12 teams · 1 QB
Source freshness
partial
Observed season stats
Through week 8; complete through week 7. The latest week may be partial.

Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt.

outcomes
ready
Captured 2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00; complete through week 7
season projection
preseason prior
Captured Unknown
draft adp
preseason context
Captured Unknown
advanced stats
coverage not verified
Captured Unknown
Model version and retrieval details

Model generated: 2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00. Model generation time does not establish source freshness.

Model version: trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1

Data version: board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8

Retrieved 2026-11-01T01:38:02.128612+00:00. This is the page retrieval time, not a source update.

Scroll the table to see every column.

Alphabetical player research. Observed points use posted games; future estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. Open a player for forecast dates and missing weeks. Trade values are model units.
PlayerPosTeamObserved points/gameGames playedEstimated future points/gameTrade value
Keon Coleman WRBUF 9.366.270

Future projection context

These estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. They do not identify who to start this week; use your league's lineup tool for that decision.

Forecast source
Captured Sleeper future projections
Forecast captured
2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00
Unstarted games through Week 17
10
Weeks with provider forecasts
8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
Weeks using model fallback
None recorded

Draft context

Historical context, not a weekly ranking or remaining-season forecast.

Full-season preseason projection
62
Draft average position
242.2

Observed production

Observed statistics are separate from model estimates. A missing season block means unavailable data.

This season

Fantasy points
55.8
Games played
6
Observed through week
6
passing yards
0
passing tds
0
interceptions
0
carries
0
rushing yards
0
rushing tds
0
targets
24
receptions
19
receiving yards
283
receiving tds
3
passing first downs
0
rushing first downs
0
receiving first downs
15
fumbles lost
0
Target share in observed games (%)
15
Fantasy points per game
9.3
Yards per carry
Unavailable
Yards per target
11.8
Yards per reception
14.9
Catch rate (%)
79.2
Total yards
283
Yards per game
47.2
touches
19
first downs
15
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
40.3
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
15.5
Opportunity observed through week
6
Opportunity coverage
complete

Previous season

Fantasy points
81.4
Games played
12
Observed through week
18
passing yards
0
passing tds
0
interceptions
0
carries
0
rushing yards
0
rushing tds
0
targets
59
receptions
38
receiving yards
404
receiving tds
4
passing first downs
0
rushing first downs
0
receiving first downs
26
fumbles lost
1
Target share in observed games (%)
17.4
Fantasy points per game
6.78
Yards per carry
Unavailable
Yards per target
6.8
Yards per reception
10.6
Catch rate (%)
64.4
Total yards
404
Yards per game
33.7
touches
38
first downs
26
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
93.3
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
-9.9
Opportunity observed through week
18
Opportunity coverage
complete

This season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
67.5
Time to throw (seconds)
Unavailable
Average depth of pass target (yards)
Unavailable
pass aggressiveness
Unavailable
Completion percentage above expectation
Unavailable
pass air to sticks
Unavailable
pass rating
Unavailable
rush stacked box pct
Unavailable
rush time to los
Unavailable
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
Unavailable
rush efficiency
Unavailable
rush pct over expected
Unavailable
rec avg separation
2.89
rec avg cushion
4.86
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
13.7
rec air share
23.62
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
-0.48
rec catch pct
79.17
rec drops
0
rec broken tackles
0
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
Unavailable
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
Unavailable
rush broken tackles
Unavailable
pass pressured pct
Unavailable
pass bad throw pct
Unavailable
rec drop pct
0

Previous season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
65.2
Time to throw (seconds)
Unavailable
Average depth of pass target (yards)
Unavailable
pass aggressiveness
Unavailable
Completion percentage above expectation
Unavailable
pass air to sticks
Unavailable
pass rating
Unavailable
rush stacked box pct
Unavailable
rush time to los
Unavailable
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
Unavailable
rush efficiency
Unavailable
rush pct over expected
Unavailable
rec avg separation
2.79
rec avg cushion
5.7
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
12
rec air share
20.63
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
-0.43
rec catch pct
64.41
rec drops
4
rec broken tackles
1
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
Unavailable
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
Unavailable
rush broken tackles
Unavailable
pass pressured pct
Unavailable
pass bad throw pct
Unavailable
rec drop pct
6.8

Player narrative and news

Generated narrative is context, not a verified injury forecast or a weekly recommendation. Inspect its own dates before using it.

Write-up generated: 2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00

Consensus has quietly given up on Coleman, WR119 on 19 catches, and the market at WR94 around pick 224 in half-PPR hasn't followed it all the way down. His 2025 wasn't empty, 6.8 points per game across 12 games with four touchdowns, but the underlying play was rough, minus-0.4 YAC over expected (13th percentile), 10.6 yards per reception (13th), a 6.8% drop rate among the worst at the position, and about 12 points fewer than his usage was worth. Buffalo's offense remains a top-five environment by implied totals, which is the strongest thing left to say for him, because he has slipped to fourth on the depth chart and that standing decides how much of the environment ever reaches him. Paying that price costs almost nothing, so the real issue is opportunity cost, since the same slot can hold a player whose projection isn't 25 ranks below his price. A pedigree bounce is possible, but the numbers that would predict one, after-catch ability and hands, are exactly the ones that graded worst.

Latest stored news context

{
  "digest": "Keon Coleman catches TD in Week 5 — Coleman made his only catch count as he hauled in Josh Allen's lone touchdown pass late in the third quarter. It was still a disappointing game for Coleman, who was expected to see a larger target share with DJ Moore (shoulder) inactive. Coleman will be on the flex radar in fantasy in Week 6 vs. the Raiders if Moore isn't ready to return to the field.",
  "latest_at": "2026-10-13T09:34:26+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-14T09:00:25.040518+00:00",
  "llm_sentiment": 1,
  "llm_injury_trajectory": 0,
  "llm_severity": 0,
  "llm_weeks_out": null,
  "llm_offfield_risk": 0,
  "llm_key_phrases": "caught td; only catch; dj moore inactive; flex radar; larger target share",
  "llm_role_change": 0,
  "llm_usage_outlook": 1,
  "llm_team_context": 1,
  "llm_relevance": 0.9,
  "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-14T09:01:47.679731+00:00",
  "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
  "inference_status": "current"
}

Profile freshness: {"writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."}

Complete source evidence
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  "valuation_context": {
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    "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.",
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    "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.",
    "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."
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    "name": "Keon Coleman",
    "team": "BUF",
    "pos": "WR",
    "age": 23,
    "exp": 2,
    "injury": null,
    "rookie": false,
    "value": 0.0,
    "ros_ppg": 6.27,
    "games_left": 10,
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      "ros_ppg": 6.2739,
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      "carries": 0.0,
      "rushing_yards": 0.0,
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      "targets": 59.0,
      "receptions": 38.0,
      "receiving_yards": 404.0,
      "receiving_tds": 4.0,
      "passing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "rushing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 26.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 1.0,
      "tgt_share": 17.4,
      "ppg": 6.78,
      "ypc": null,
      "ypt": 6.8,
      "ypr": 10.6,
      "catch_pct": 64.4,
      "total_yd": 404.0,
      "ypg": 33.7,
      "touches": 38.0,
      "first_downs": 26.0,
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      "xfp_diff": -9.9,
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    "adv": {
      "snap_pct": 65.2,
      "pass_time_to_throw": null,
      "pass_adot": null,
      "pass_aggressiveness": null,
      "pass_cpoe": null,
      "pass_air_to_sticks": null,
      "pass_rating": null,
      "rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
      "rush_time_to_los": null,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
      "rush_efficiency": null,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": null,
      "rec_avg_separation": 2.79,
      "rec_avg_cushion": 5.7,
      "rec_adot": 12.0,
      "rec_air_share": 20.63,
      "rec_yac_above_exp": -0.43,
      "rec_catch_pct": 64.41,
      "rec_drops": 4.0,
      "rec_broken_tackles": 1.0,
      "rush_ybc_att": null,
      "rush_yac_att": null,
      "rush_broken_tackles": null,
      "pass_pressured_pct": null,
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    "writeup": "Consensus has quietly given up on Coleman, WR119 on 19 catches, and the market at WR94 around pick 224 in half-PPR hasn't followed it all the way down. His 2025 wasn't empty, 6.8 points per game across 12 games with four touchdowns, but the underlying play was rough, minus-0.4 YAC over expected (13th percentile), 10.6 yards per reception (13th), a 6.8% drop rate among the worst at the position, and about 12 points fewer than his usage was worth. Buffalo's offense remains a top-five environment by implied totals, which is the strongest thing left to say for him, because he has slipped to fourth on the depth chart and that standing decides how much of the environment ever reaches him. Paying that price costs almost nothing, so the real issue is opportunity cost, since the same slot can hold a player whose projection isn't 25 ranks below his price. A pedigree bounce is possible, but the numbers that would predict one, after-catch ability and hands, are exactly the ones that graded worst.",
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    "news": {
      "digest": "Keon Coleman catches TD in Week 5 — Coleman made his only catch count as he hauled in Josh Allen's lone touchdown pass late in the third quarter. It was still a disappointing game for Coleman, who was expected to see a larger target share with DJ Moore (shoulder) inactive. Coleman will be on the flex radar in fantasy in Week 6 vs. the Raiders if Moore isn't ready to return to the field.",
      "latest_at": "2026-10-13T09:34:26+00:00",
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}

Use this source carefully