{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/11637","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:16:40.366754+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"11637","name":"Keon Coleman","team":"BUF","pos":"WR","age":23,"exp":2,"injury":null,"rookie":false,"value":0.0,"ros_ppg":6.27,"games_left":10,"projection":{"ros_ppg":6.2739,"source":"sleeper_future","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[],"remaining_games":10},"proj":62,"adp":242.2,"adp_pr":88,"ly":{"pts":81.4,"g":12,"through_week":18,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":0.0,"rushing_yards":0.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":59.0,"receptions":38.0,"receiving_yards":404.0,"receiving_tds":4.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":0.0,"receiving_first_downs":26.0,"fumbles_lost":1.0,"tgt_share":17.4,"ppg":6.78,"ypc":null,"ypt":6.8,"ypr":10.6,"catch_pct":64.4,"total_yd":404.0,"ypg":33.7,"touches":38.0,"first_downs":26.0,"xfp":93.3,"xfp_diff":-9.9,"xfp_through_week":18,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":65.2,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":2.79,"rec_avg_cushion":5.7,"rec_adot":12.0,"rec_air_share":20.63,"rec_yac_above_exp":-0.43,"rec_catch_pct":64.41,"rec_drops":4.0,"rec_broken_tackles":1.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":null,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":6.8},"ytd":{"pts":55.8,"g":6,"through_week":6,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":0.0,"rushing_yards":0.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":24.0,"receptions":19.0,"receiving_yards":283.0,"receiving_tds":3.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":0.0,"receiving_first_downs":15.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":15.0,"ppg":9.3,"ypc":null,"ypt":11.8,"ypr":14.9,"catch_pct":79.2,"total_yd":283.0,"ypg":47.2,"touches":19.0,"first_downs":15.0,"xfp":40.3,"xfp_diff":15.5,"xfp_through_week":6,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":67.5,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":2.89,"rec_avg_cushion":4.86,"rec_adot":13.7,"rec_air_share":23.62,"rec_yac_above_exp":-0.48,"rec_catch_pct":79.17,"rec_drops":0.0,"rec_broken_tackles":0.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":null,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":0.0}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"11637","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:16:40.385552+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"stale","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Consensus has quietly given up on Coleman, WR119 on 19 catches, and the market at WR94 around pick 224 in half-PPR hasn't followed it all the way down. His 2025 wasn't empty, 6.8 points per game across 12 games with four touchdowns, but the underlying play was rough, minus-0.4 YAC over expected (13th percentile), 10.6 yards per reception (13th), a 6.8% drop rate among the worst at the position, and about 12 points fewer than his usage was worth. Buffalo's offense remains a top-five environment by implied totals, which is the strongest thing left to say for him, because he has slipped to fourth on the depth chart and that standing decides how much of the environment ever reaches him. Paying that price costs almost nothing, so the real issue is opportunity cost, since the same slot can hold a player whose projection isn't 25 ranks below his price. A pedigree bounce is possible, but the numbers that would predict one, after-catch ability and hands, are exactly the ones that graded worst.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"Keon Coleman catches TD in Week 5 — Coleman made his only catch count as he hauled in Josh Allen's lone touchdown pass late in the third quarter. It was still a disappointing game for Coleman, who was expected to see a larger target share with DJ Moore (shoulder) inactive. Coleman will be on the flex radar in fantasy in Week 6 vs. the Raiders if Moore isn't ready to return to the field.","latest_at":"2026-10-13T09:34:26+00:00","updated_at":"2026-10-14T09:00:25.040518+00:00","llm_sentiment":1,"llm_injury_trajectory":0,"llm_severity":0,"llm_weeks_out":null,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"caught td; only catch; dj moore inactive; flex radar; larger target share","llm_role_change":0,"llm_usage_outlook":1,"llm_team_context":1,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-10-14T09:01:47.679731+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":null,"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"questionable","exp_miss_next6":1.6780349575271793,"as_of":"2026-10-02","source":"curves-v1"}}}