FOOTBALLQUANTS

Player sourcebook / WR · TB

Jalen McMillan

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Season / week
2026 / 8
Scoring
HALF · 12 teams · 1 QB
Source freshness
partial
Observed season stats
Through week 8; complete through week 7. The latest week may be partial.

Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt.

outcomes
ready
Captured 2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00; complete through week 7
season projection
preseason prior
Captured Unknown
draft adp
preseason context
Captured Unknown
advanced stats
coverage not verified
Captured Unknown
Model version and retrieval details

Model generated: 2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00. Model generation time does not establish source freshness.

Model version: trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1

Data version: board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8

Retrieved 2026-11-01T01:38:03.789103+00:00. This is the page retrieval time, not a source update.

Scroll the table to see every column.

Alphabetical player research. Observed points use posted games; future estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. Open a player for forecast dates and missing weeks. Trade values are model units.
PlayerPosTeamObserved points/gameGames playedEstimated future points/gameTrade value
Jalen McMillan WRTB 013.160

Future projection context

These estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. They do not identify who to start this week; use your league's lineup tool for that decision.

Forecast source
Captured Sleeper projections plus model fallback
Forecast captured
2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00
Unstarted games through Week 17
9
Weeks with provider forecasts
9, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
Weeks using model fallback
8

Draft context

Historical context, not a weekly ranking or remaining-season forecast.

Full-season preseason projection
110
Draft average position
210.3

Observed production

Observed statistics are separate from model estimates. A missing season block means unavailable data.

This season

Fantasy points
0
Games played
1
Observed through week
3
passing yards
0
passing tds
0
interceptions
0
carries
0
rushing yards
0
rushing tds
0
targets
1
receptions
0
receiving yards
0
receiving tds
0
passing first downs
0
rushing first downs
0
receiving first downs
0
fumbles lost
0
Target share in observed games (%)
2.9
Fantasy points per game
0
Yards per carry
Unavailable
Yards per target
0
Yards per reception
Unavailable
Catch rate (%)
0
Total yards
0
Yards per game
0
touches
0
first downs
0
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
1.4
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
-1.4
Opportunity observed through week
3
Opportunity coverage
complete

Previous season

Fantasy points
23.9
Games played
4
Observed through week
18
passing yards
0
passing tds
0
interceptions
0
carries
1
rushing yards
1
rushing tds
0
targets
15
receptions
12
receiving yards
178
receiving tds
0
passing first downs
0
rushing first downs
0
receiving first downs
8
fumbles lost
0
Target share in observed games (%)
12.2
Fantasy points per game
5.97
Yards per carry
1
Yards per target
11.9
Yards per reception
14.8
Catch rate (%)
80
Total yards
179
Yards per game
44.8
touches
13
first downs
8
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
21.3
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
2.6
Opportunity observed through week
18
Opportunity coverage
complete

This season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
7
Time to throw (seconds)
Unavailable
Average depth of pass target (yards)
Unavailable
pass aggressiveness
Unavailable
Completion percentage above expectation
Unavailable
pass air to sticks
Unavailable
pass rating
Unavailable
rush stacked box pct
Unavailable
rush time to los
Unavailable
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
Unavailable
rush efficiency
Unavailable
rush pct over expected
Unavailable
rec avg separation
Unavailable
rec avg cushion
Unavailable
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
Unavailable
rec air share
Unavailable
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
Unavailable
rec catch pct
Unavailable
rec drops
0
rec broken tackles
0
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
Unavailable
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
Unavailable
rush broken tackles
Unavailable
pass pressured pct
Unavailable
pass bad throw pct
Unavailable
rec drop pct
0

Previous season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
51.5
Time to throw (seconds)
Unavailable
Average depth of pass target (yards)
Unavailable
pass aggressiveness
Unavailable
Completion percentage above expectation
Unavailable
pass air to sticks
Unavailable
pass rating
Unavailable
rush stacked box pct
Unavailable
rush time to los
Unavailable
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
Unavailable
rush efficiency
Unavailable
rush pct over expected
Unavailable
rec avg separation
Unavailable
rec avg cushion
Unavailable
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
Unavailable
rec air share
Unavailable
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
Unavailable
rec catch pct
Unavailable
rec drops
1
rec broken tackles
0
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
Unavailable
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
Unavailable
rush broken tackles
0
pass pressured pct
Unavailable
pass bad throw pct
Unavailable
rec drop pct
6.7

Player narrative and news

Generated narrative is context, not a verified injury forecast or a weekly recommendation. Inspect its own dates before using it.

Write-up generated: 2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00

Tampa Bay's WR3 job is what you're buying here, because the 2025 evidence barely exists. McMillan played four games, drew 15 targets, and scored 23.9 half-PPR points, and even the 6.0 points per game is misleading since one 14.9-point week carries it, and stripping that game leaves a 3.0 average. The market takes him at WR64 in half-PPR drafts, almost exactly where the consensus projection lands with 110 points at WR63, so nobody is really arguing about the number. What you're weighing instead is whether a 24-year-old, two years in, can turn the third receiver role into weekly volume in an offense oddsmakers like at a 23.9-point implied total, 13th in the league. A 14th-round cost means the bet at least fails cheaply, and the depth chart says he begins camp with the inside track on the job he needs.

Latest stored news context

{
  "digest": "Jalen McMillan (knee) placed on IR — McMillan underwent an MRI that confirmed a PCL sprain. He is expected to miss 6-to-8 weeks. ",
  "latest_at": "2026-09-29T04:08:29+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-09-30T09:00:23.381086+00:00",
  "llm_sentiment": -1,
  "llm_injury_trajectory": -1,
  "llm_severity": 2,
  "llm_weeks_out": 7.0,
  "llm_offfield_risk": 0,
  "llm_key_phrases": "placed on ir; pcl sprain; miss 6-to-8 weeks",
  "llm_role_change": 0,
  "llm_usage_outlook": -1,
  "llm_team_context": 0,
  "llm_relevance": 0.9,
  "llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-30T09:03:38.611256+00:00",
  "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
  "inference_status": "current"
}

Profile freshness: {"writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "current", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."}

Stored injury context

{
  "status": "ir",
  "exp_miss_next6": 4.060832407848115,
  "as_of": "2026-10-31",
  "source": "curves-v1"
}
Complete source evidence
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  "outcome_readiness": {
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  "valuation_context": {
    "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback",
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    "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.",
    "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.",
    "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.",
    "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."
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    "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.",
    "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.",
    "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.",
    "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.",
    "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.",
    "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."
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  "player": {
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    "name": "Jalen McMillan",
    "team": "TB",
    "pos": "WR",
    "age": 24,
    "exp": 2,
    "injury": "IR",
    "rookie": false,
    "value": 0.0,
    "ros_ppg": 3.16,
    "games_left": 9,
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      "ros_ppg": 3.159636220442247,
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      "covered_weeks": [
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      "passing_tds": 0.0,
      "interceptions": 0.0,
      "carries": 1.0,
      "rushing_yards": 1.0,
      "rushing_tds": 0.0,
      "targets": 15.0,
      "receptions": 12.0,
      "receiving_yards": 178.0,
      "receiving_tds": 0.0,
      "passing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "rushing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 8.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 0.0,
      "tgt_share": 12.2,
      "ppg": 5.97,
      "ypc": 1.0,
      "ypt": 11.9,
      "ypr": 14.8,
      "catch_pct": 80.0,
      "total_yd": 179.0,
      "ypg": 44.8,
      "touches": 13.0,
      "first_downs": 8.0,
      "xfp": 21.3,
      "xfp_diff": 2.6,
      "xfp_through_week": 18,
      "xfp_coverage": "complete"
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    "adv": {
      "snap_pct": 51.5,
      "pass_time_to_throw": null,
      "pass_adot": null,
      "pass_aggressiveness": null,
      "pass_cpoe": null,
      "pass_air_to_sticks": null,
      "pass_rating": null,
      "rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
      "rush_time_to_los": null,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
      "rush_efficiency": null,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": null,
      "rec_avg_separation": null,
      "rec_avg_cushion": null,
      "rec_adot": null,
      "rec_air_share": null,
      "rec_yac_above_exp": null,
      "rec_catch_pct": null,
      "rec_drops": 1.0,
      "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0,
      "rush_ybc_att": null,
      "rush_yac_att": null,
      "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0,
      "pass_pressured_pct": null,
      "pass_bad_throw_pct": null,
      "rec_drop_pct": 6.7
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    "writeup": "Tampa Bay's WR3 job is what you're buying here, because the 2025 evidence barely exists. McMillan played four games, drew 15 targets, and scored 23.9 half-PPR points, and even the 6.0 points per game is misleading since one 14.9-point week carries it, and stripping that game leaves a 3.0 average. The market takes him at WR64 in half-PPR drafts, almost exactly where the consensus projection lands with 110 points at WR63, so nobody is really arguing about the number. What you're weighing instead is whether a 24-year-old, two years in, can turn the third receiver role into weekly volume in an offense oddsmakers like at a 23.9-point implied total, 13th in the league. A 14th-round cost means the bet at least fails cheaply, and the depth chart says he begins camp with the inside track on the job he needs.",
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    "news": {
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      "latest_at": "2026-09-29T04:08:29+00:00",
      "updated_at": "2026-09-30T09:00:23.381086+00:00",
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      "llm_injury_trajectory": -1,
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}

Use this source carefully