{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/11618","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:16:41.258260+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"11618","name":"Jalen McMillan","team":"TB","pos":"WR","age":24,"exp":2,"injury":"IR","rookie":false,"value":0.0,"ros_ppg":3.16,"games_left":9,"projection":{"ros_ppg":3.159636220442247,"source":"sleeper_future+fallback","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[9,11,12,13,14,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[8],"remaining_games":9},"proj":110,"adp":210.3,"adp_pr":72,"ly":{"pts":23.9,"g":4,"through_week":18,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":1.0,"rushing_yards":1.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":15.0,"receptions":12.0,"receiving_yards":178.0,"receiving_tds":0.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":0.0,"receiving_first_downs":8.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":12.2,"ppg":5.97,"ypc":1.0,"ypt":11.9,"ypr":14.8,"catch_pct":80.0,"total_yd":179.0,"ypg":44.8,"touches":13.0,"first_downs":8.0,"xfp":21.3,"xfp_diff":2.6,"xfp_through_week":18,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":51.5,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":1.0,"rec_broken_tackles":0.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":0.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":6.7},"ytd":{"pts":0.0,"g":1,"through_week":3,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":0.0,"rushing_yards":0.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":1.0,"receptions":0.0,"receiving_yards":0.0,"receiving_tds":0.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":0.0,"receiving_first_downs":0.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":2.9,"ppg":0.0,"ypc":null,"ypt":0.0,"ypr":null,"catch_pct":0.0,"total_yd":0.0,"ypg":0.0,"touches":0.0,"first_downs":0.0,"xfp":1.4,"xfp_diff":-1.4,"xfp_through_week":3,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":7.0,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":0.0,"rec_broken_tackles":0.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":null,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":0.0}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"11618","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:16:41.308468+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"current","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Tampa Bay's WR3 job is what you're buying here, because the 2025 evidence barely exists. McMillan played four games, drew 15 targets, and scored 23.9 half-PPR points, and even the 6.0 points per game is misleading since one 14.9-point week carries it, and stripping that game leaves a 3.0 average. The market takes him at WR64 in half-PPR drafts, almost exactly where the consensus projection lands with 110 points at WR63, so nobody is really arguing about the number. What you're weighing instead is whether a 24-year-old, two years in, can turn the third receiver role into weekly volume in an offense oddsmakers like at a 23.9-point implied total, 13th in the league. A 14th-round cost means the bet at least fails cheaply, and the depth chart says he begins camp with the inside track on the job he needs.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"Jalen McMillan (knee) placed on IR — McMillan underwent an MRI that confirmed a PCL sprain. He is expected to miss 6-to-8 weeks. ","latest_at":"2026-09-29T04:08:29+00:00","updated_at":"2026-09-30T09:00:23.381086+00:00","llm_sentiment":-1,"llm_injury_trajectory":-1,"llm_severity":2,"llm_weeks_out":7.0,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"placed on ir; pcl sprain; miss 6-to-8 weeks","llm_role_change":0,"llm_usage_outlook":-1,"llm_team_context":0,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-09-30T09:03:38.611256+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":{"status":"ir","exp_miss_next6":4.060832407848115,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"},"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"ir","exp_miss_next6":4.060832407848115,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"}}}