Player sourcebook / QB · CHI
Tyson Bagent
Read as Markdown · JSON · Interactive board
- Season / week
- 2026 / 8
- Scoring
- HALF · 12 teams · 1 QB
- Source freshness
- partial
- Observed season stats
- Through week 8; complete through week 7. The latest week may be partial.
Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt.
- outcomes
- ready
Captured 2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00; complete through week 7 - season projection
- preseason prior
Captured Unknown - draft adp
- preseason context
Captured Unknown - advanced stats
- coverage not verified
Captured Unknown
Model version and retrieval details
Model generated: 2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00. Model generation time does not establish source freshness.
Model version: trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1
Data version: board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8
Retrieved 2026-11-01T01:39:56.455161+00:00. This is the page retrieval time, not a source update.
Scroll the table to see every column.
| Player | Pos | Team | Observed points/game | Games played | Estimated future points/game | Trade value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Bagent | QB | CHI | 4.07 | 3 | 7.17 | 0 |
Future projection context
These estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. They do not identify who to start this week; use your league's lineup tool for that decision.
- Forecast source
- Model fallback
- Forecast captured
- Unavailable; no provider capture established
- Unstarted games through Week 17
- 9
- Weeks with provider forecasts
- None recorded
- Weeks using model fallback
- 8, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
Draft context
Historical context, not a weekly ranking or remaining-season forecast.
- Full-season preseason projection
- 11
- Draft average position
- 606
Observed production
Observed statistics are separate from model estimates. A missing season block means unavailable data.
This season
- Fantasy points
- 12.2
- Games played
- 3
- Observed through week
- 5
- passing yards
- 409
- passing tds
- 0
- interceptions
- 3
- carries
- 7
- rushing yards
- 18
- rushing tds
- 0
- targets
- 0
- receptions
- 0
- receiving yards
- 0
- receiving tds
- 0
- passing first downs
- 21
- rushing first downs
- 0
- receiving first downs
- 0
- fumbles lost
- 0
- Target share in observed games (%)
- 0
- Fantasy points per game
- 4.07
- Yards per carry
- 2.6
- Yards per target
- Unavailable
- Yards per reception
- Unavailable
- Catch rate (%)
- Unavailable
- Total yards
- 427
- Yards per game
- 142.3
- touches
- 7
- first downs
- 0
- Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
- 2.8
- Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
- -1
- Opportunity observed through week
- 5
- Opportunity coverage
- complete
Previous season
- Fantasy points
- 2.6
- Games played
- 2
- Observed through week
- 9
- passing yards
- 47
- passing tds
- 0
- interceptions
- 0
- carries
- 2
- rushing yards
- 7
- rushing tds
- 0
- targets
- 0
- receptions
- 0
- receiving yards
- 0
- receiving tds
- 0
- passing first downs
- 2
- rushing first downs
- 1
- receiving first downs
- 0
- fumbles lost
- 0
- Target share in observed games (%)
- 0
- Fantasy points per game
- 1.3
- Yards per carry
- 3.5
- Yards per target
- Unavailable
- Yards per reception
- Unavailable
- Catch rate (%)
- Unavailable
- Total yards
- 54
- Yards per game
- 27
- touches
- 2
- first downs
- 1
- Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
- 1
- Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
- -0.3
- Opportunity observed through week
- 2
- Opportunity coverage
- complete
This season: advanced statistics
- Snap share (%)
- 60.3
- Time to throw (seconds)
- 2.88
- Average depth of pass target (yards)
- 6.45
- pass aggressiveness
- 26.56
- Completion percentage above expectation
- 3.02
- pass air to sticks
- -1.29
- pass rating
- 63.87
- rush stacked box pct
- Unavailable
- rush time to los
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
- Unavailable
- rush efficiency
- Unavailable
- rush pct over expected
- Unavailable
- rec avg separation
- Unavailable
- rec avg cushion
- Unavailable
- Average depth of receiving target (yards)
- Unavailable
- rec air share
- Unavailable
- Receiving yards after catch above expectation
- Unavailable
- rec catch pct
- Unavailable
- rec drops
- Unavailable
- rec broken tackles
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards before contact per attempt
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards after contact per attempt
- Unavailable
- rush broken tackles
- 0
- pass pressured pct
- Unavailable
- pass bad throw pct
- Unavailable
- rec drop pct
- Unavailable
Previous season: advanced statistics
- Snap share (%)
- 6.7
- Time to throw (seconds)
- Unavailable
- Average depth of pass target (yards)
- Unavailable
- pass aggressiveness
- Unavailable
- Completion percentage above expectation
- Unavailable
- pass air to sticks
- Unavailable
- pass rating
- Unavailable
- rush stacked box pct
- Unavailable
- rush time to los
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
- Unavailable
- rush efficiency
- Unavailable
- rush pct over expected
- Unavailable
- rec avg separation
- Unavailable
- rec avg cushion
- Unavailable
- Average depth of receiving target (yards)
- Unavailable
- rec air share
- Unavailable
- Receiving yards after catch above expectation
- Unavailable
- rec catch pct
- Unavailable
- rec drops
- Unavailable
- rec broken tackles
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards before contact per attempt
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards after contact per attempt
- Unavailable
- rush broken tackles
- 0
- pass pressured pct
- Unavailable
- pass bad throw pct
- Unavailable
- rec drop pct
- Unavailable
Player narrative and news
Generated narrative is context, not a verified injury forecast or a weekly recommendation. Inspect its own dates before using it.
Write-up generated: 2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00
Latest stored news context
{
"digest": "Tyson Bagent will start in Week 5 against Green Bay — Bagent had himself a nice day against the Jets, even without throwing a touchdown. He simply wasn't asked to do much against a Jets team that lacked any bite. Against the Packers, however, you would expect tougher competition, so Bagent could have a better stat line next week.",
"latest_at": "2026-10-05T16:39:52+00:00",
"updated_at": "2026-10-06T09:00:15.551468+00:00",
"llm_sentiment": 1,
"llm_injury_trajectory": 0,
"llm_severity": 0,
"llm_weeks_out": null,
"llm_offfield_risk": 0,
"llm_key_phrases": "will start week 5; nice day against jets; could have better stat line; tougher competition",
"llm_role_change": 1,
"llm_usage_outlook": 1,
"llm_team_context": 0,
"llm_relevance": 0.9,
"llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-06T09:03:17.714118+00:00",
"llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
"inference_status": "current"
}Profile freshness: {"writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "current", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."}
Stored injury context
{
"status": "absent",
"exp_miss_next6": 4.21601620415637,
"as_of": "2026-10-31",
"source": "curves-v1"
}Complete source evidence
{
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"canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/11256",
"retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T01:39:56.455161+00:00",
"season": 2026,
"week": 8,
"last_season": 2025,
"fmt": "half",
"teams": 12,
"qb": 1,
"mode": "inseason",
"data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8",
"model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1",
"generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00",
"freshness": {
"status": "partial",
"expected_season": 2026,
"served_season": 2026,
"expected_week": 8,
"warnings": [],
"sources": {
"outcomes": {
"status": "ready",
"captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00",
"completed_through_week": 7
},
"season_projection": {
"status": "preseason_prior",
"captured_at": null
},
"draft_adp": {
"status": "preseason_context",
"captured_at": null
},
"advanced_stats": {
"status": "coverage_not_verified",
"captured_at": null
}
},
"note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."
},
"outcome_readiness": {
"completed_week": 7,
"fresh": true,
"checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00",
"status": "ready"
},
"valuation_context": {
"phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback",
"fallback_phase": "in_season_blend",
"fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7,
"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true,
"advanced_stats_priced": false,
"injury_outlook": "annotation_only",
"remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games"
},
"value_locked": null,
"ytd_through_week": 8,
"ytd_complete_through_week": 7,
"sources": [
{
"name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board",
"url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"
}
],
"limitations": [
"Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.",
"generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.",
"Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.",
"Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.",
"League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."
],
"metric_definitions": {
"proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.",
"adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.",
"ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.",
"tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.",
"ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.",
"projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.",
"value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.",
"xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.",
"xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."
},
"access": {
"public": true,
"pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app",
"connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect"
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"player": {
"sleeper_id": "11256",
"name": "Tyson Bagent",
"team": "CHI",
"pos": "QB",
"age": 26,
"exp": 3,
"injury": null,
"rookie": false,
"value": 0.0,
"ros_ppg": 7.17,
"games_left": 9,
"projection": {
"ros_ppg": 7.168027163597823,
"source": "fallback",
"captured_at": null,
"covered_weeks": [],
"missing_weeks": [
8,
9,
11,
12,
13,
14,
15,
16,
17
],
"remaining_games": 9
},
"proj": 11,
"adp": 606.0,
"adp_pr": 119,
"ly": {
"pts": 2.6,
"g": 2,
"through_week": 9,
"passing_yards": 47.0,
"passing_tds": 0.0,
"interceptions": 0.0,
"carries": 2.0,
"rushing_yards": 7.0,
"rushing_tds": 0.0,
"targets": 0.0,
"receptions": 0.0,
"receiving_yards": 0.0,
"receiving_tds": 0.0,
"passing_first_downs": 2.0,
"rushing_first_downs": 1.0,
"receiving_first_downs": 0.0,
"fumbles_lost": 0.0,
"tgt_share": 0.0,
"ppg": 1.3,
"ypc": 3.5,
"ypt": null,
"ypr": null,
"catch_pct": null,
"total_yd": 54.0,
"ypg": 27.0,
"touches": 2.0,
"first_downs": 1.0,
"xfp": 1.0,
"xfp_diff": -0.3,
"xfp_through_week": 2,
"xfp_coverage": "complete"
},
"adv": {
"snap_pct": 6.7,
"pass_time_to_throw": null,
"pass_adot": null,
"pass_aggressiveness": null,
"pass_cpoe": null,
"pass_air_to_sticks": null,
"pass_rating": null,
"rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
"rush_time_to_los": null,
"rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
"rush_efficiency": null,
"rush_pct_over_expected": null,
"rec_avg_separation": null,
"rec_avg_cushion": null,
"rec_adot": null,
"rec_air_share": null,
"rec_yac_above_exp": null,
"rec_catch_pct": null,
"rec_drops": null,
"rec_broken_tackles": null,
"rush_ybc_att": null,
"rush_yac_att": null,
"rush_broken_tackles": 0.0,
"pass_pressured_pct": null,
"pass_bad_throw_pct": null,
"rec_drop_pct": null
},
"ytd": {
"pts": 12.2,
"g": 3,
"through_week": 5,
"passing_yards": 409.0,
"passing_tds": 0.0,
"interceptions": 3.0,
"carries": 7.0,
"rushing_yards": 18.0,
"rushing_tds": 0.0,
"targets": 0.0,
"receptions": 0.0,
"receiving_yards": 0.0,
"receiving_tds": 0.0,
"passing_first_downs": 21.0,
"rushing_first_downs": 0.0,
"receiving_first_downs": 0.0,
"fumbles_lost": 0.0,
"tgt_share": 0.0,
"ppg": 4.07,
"ypc": 2.6,
"ypt": null,
"ypr": null,
"catch_pct": null,
"total_yd": 427.0,
"ypg": 142.3,
"touches": 7.0,
"first_downs": 0.0,
"xfp": 2.8,
"xfp_diff": -1.0,
"xfp_through_week": 5,
"xfp_coverage": "complete"
},
"adv_ytd": {
"snap_pct": 60.3,
"pass_time_to_throw": 2.88,
"pass_adot": 6.45,
"pass_aggressiveness": 26.56,
"pass_cpoe": 3.02,
"pass_air_to_sticks": -1.29,
"pass_rating": 63.87,
"rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
"rush_time_to_los": null,
"rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
"rush_efficiency": null,
"rush_pct_over_expected": null,
"rec_avg_separation": null,
"rec_avg_cushion": null,
"rec_adot": null,
"rec_air_share": null,
"rec_yac_above_exp": null,
"rec_catch_pct": null,
"rec_drops": null,
"rec_broken_tackles": null,
"rush_ybc_att": null,
"rush_yac_att": null,
"rush_broken_tackles": 0.0,
"pass_pressured_pct": null,
"pass_bad_throw_pct": null,
"rec_drop_pct": null
}
},
"profile": {
"sleeper_id": "11256",
"season": 2026,
"as_of": "2026-11-01T01:39:56.457852+00:00",
"freshness": {
"writeup": "preseason_context",
"news": "stale",
"news_inference": "current",
"injury_outlook": "current",
"note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."
},
"writeup": "Chicago's QB2 job carries the entire pitch here, because Bagent barely played in 2025, throwing for 47 yards across two brief appearances and totaling 2.6 points (half-PPR) on the season. Any case for him starts with the offense he'd inherit, and Vegas likes that offense a lot, putting the Bears at a 25.0 implied team total across the available early lines, eighth in the league, including a 27-point number against the Jets in week 4. Market and projection have reached a rare late-draft agreement on him, a 298 ADP in 2QB formats as QB50 against a projection of 11.2 season-long points at QB51, so nobody is really arguing about the price. At 26 with three years of experience, he profiles as the classic insurance stash, dead weight on a roster until an injury suddenly makes him a streamer backed by a top-ten offense by implied totals.",
"writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00",
"news": {
"digest": "Tyson Bagent will start in Week 5 against Green Bay — Bagent had himself a nice day against the Jets, even without throwing a touchdown. He simply wasn't asked to do much against a Jets team that lacked any bite. Against the Packers, however, you would expect tougher competition, so Bagent could have a better stat line next week.",
"latest_at": "2026-10-05T16:39:52+00:00",
"updated_at": "2026-10-06T09:00:15.551468+00:00",
"llm_sentiment": 1,
"llm_injury_trajectory": 0,
"llm_severity": 0,
"llm_weeks_out": null,
"llm_offfield_risk": 0,
"llm_key_phrases": "will start week 5; nice day against jets; could have better stat line; tougher competition",
"llm_role_change": 1,
"llm_usage_outlook": 1,
"llm_team_context": 0,
"llm_relevance": 0.9,
"llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-06T09:03:17.714118+00:00",
"llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
"inference_status": "current"
},
"injury_outlook": {
"status": "absent",
"exp_miss_next6": 4.21601620415637,
"as_of": "2026-10-31",
"source": "curves-v1"
},
"injury_outlook_last_captured": {
"status": "absent",
"exp_miss_next6": 4.21601620415637,
"as_of": "2026-10-31",
"source": "curves-v1"
}
}
}Use this source carefully
- Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.
- generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.
- Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.
- Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.
- League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring.