{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/11256","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:18:56.608146+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"11256","name":"Tyson Bagent","team":"CHI","pos":"QB","age":26,"exp":3,"injury":null,"rookie":false,"value":0.0,"ros_ppg":7.17,"games_left":9,"projection":{"ros_ppg":7.168027163597823,"source":"fallback","captured_at":null,"covered_weeks":[],"missing_weeks":[8,9,11,12,13,14,15,16,17],"remaining_games":9},"proj":11,"adp":606.0,"adp_pr":119,"ly":{"pts":2.6,"g":2,"through_week":9,"passing_yards":47.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":2.0,"rushing_yards":7.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":0.0,"receptions":0.0,"receiving_yards":0.0,"receiving_tds":0.0,"passing_first_downs":2.0,"rushing_first_downs":1.0,"receiving_first_downs":0.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":0.0,"ppg":1.3,"ypc":3.5,"ypt":null,"ypr":null,"catch_pct":null,"total_yd":54.0,"ypg":27.0,"touches":2.0,"first_downs":1.0,"xfp":1.0,"xfp_diff":-0.3,"xfp_through_week":2,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":6.7,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":null,"rec_broken_tackles":null,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":0.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":null},"ytd":{"pts":12.2,"g":3,"through_week":5,"passing_yards":409.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":3.0,"carries":7.0,"rushing_yards":18.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":0.0,"receptions":0.0,"receiving_yards":0.0,"receiving_tds":0.0,"passing_first_downs":21.0,"rushing_first_downs":0.0,"receiving_first_downs":0.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":0.0,"ppg":4.07,"ypc":2.6,"ypt":null,"ypr":null,"catch_pct":null,"total_yd":427.0,"ypg":142.3,"touches":7.0,"first_downs":0.0,"xfp":2.8,"xfp_diff":-1.0,"xfp_through_week":5,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":60.3,"pass_time_to_throw":2.88,"pass_adot":6.45,"pass_aggressiveness":26.56,"pass_cpoe":3.02,"pass_air_to_sticks":-1.29,"pass_rating":63.87,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":null,"rec_broken_tackles":null,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":0.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":null}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"11256","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:18:56.638135+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"current","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Chicago's QB2 job carries the entire pitch here, because Bagent barely played in 2025, throwing for 47 yards across two brief appearances and totaling 2.6 points (half-PPR) on the season. Any case for him starts with the offense he'd inherit, and Vegas likes that offense a lot, putting the Bears at a 25.0 implied team total across the available early lines, eighth in the league, including a 27-point number against the Jets in week 4. Market and projection have reached a rare late-draft agreement on him, a 298 ADP in 2QB formats as QB50 against a projection of 11.2 season-long points at QB51, so nobody is really arguing about the price. At 26 with three years of experience, he profiles as the classic insurance stash, dead weight on a roster until an injury suddenly makes him a streamer backed by a top-ten offense by implied totals.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"Tyson Bagent will start in Week 5 against Green Bay — Bagent had himself a nice day against the Jets, even without throwing a touchdown. He simply wasn't asked to do much against a Jets team that lacked any bite. Against the Packers, however, you would expect tougher competition, so Bagent could have a better stat line next week.","latest_at":"2026-10-05T16:39:52+00:00","updated_at":"2026-10-06T09:00:15.551468+00:00","llm_sentiment":1,"llm_injury_trajectory":0,"llm_severity":0,"llm_weeks_out":null,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"will start week 5; nice day against jets; could have better stat line; tougher competition","llm_role_change":1,"llm_usage_outlook":1,"llm_team_context":0,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-10-06T09:03:17.714118+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":{"status":"absent","exp_miss_next6":4.21601620415637,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"},"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"absent","exp_miss_next6":4.21601620415637,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"}}}