FOOTBALLQUANTS

Player sourcebook / TE · BUF

Dalton Kincaid

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Season / week
2026 / 8
Scoring
HALF · 12 teams · 1 QB
Source freshness
partial
Observed season stats
Through week 8; complete through week 7. The latest week may be partial.

Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt.

outcomes
ready
Captured 2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00; complete through week 7
season projection
preseason prior
Captured Unknown
draft adp
preseason context
Captured Unknown
advanced stats
coverage not verified
Captured Unknown
Model version and retrieval details

Model generated: 2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00. Model generation time does not establish source freshness.

Model version: trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1

Data version: board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8

Retrieved 2026-11-01T01:40:13.393079+00:00. This is the page retrieval time, not a source update.

Scroll the table to see every column.

Alphabetical player research. Observed points use posted games; future estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. Open a player for forecast dates and missing weeks. Trade values are model units.
PlayerPosTeamObserved points/gameGames playedEstimated future points/gameTrade value
Dalton Kincaid TEBUF 7.8368.3817.2

Future projection context

These estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. They do not identify who to start this week; use your league's lineup tool for that decision.

Forecast source
Captured Sleeper future projections
Forecast captured
2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00
Unstarted games through Week 17
10
Weeks with provider forecasts
8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
Weeks using model fallback
None recorded

Draft context

Historical context, not a weekly ranking or remaining-season forecast.

Full-season preseason projection
132
Draft average position
91.4

Observed production

Observed statistics are separate from model estimates. A missing season block means unavailable data.

This season

Fantasy points
47
Games played
6
Observed through week
6
passing yards
0
passing tds
0
interceptions
0
carries
0
rushing yards
0
rushing tds
0
targets
29
receptions
23
receiving yards
315
receiving tds
1
passing first downs
0
rushing first downs
0
receiving first downs
11
fumbles lost
1
Target share in observed games (%)
18.1
Fantasy points per game
7.83
Yards per carry
Unavailable
Yards per target
10.9
Yards per reception
13.7
Catch rate (%)
79.3
Total yards
315
Yards per game
52.5
touches
23
first downs
11
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
41.3
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
7.7
Opportunity observed through week
6
Opportunity coverage
complete

Previous season

Fantasy points
106.6
Games played
12
Observed through week
18
passing yards
0
passing tds
0
interceptions
0
carries
0
rushing yards
0
rushing tds
0
targets
49
receptions
39
receiving yards
571
receiving tds
5
passing first downs
0
rushing first downs
0
receiving first downs
28
fumbles lost
0
Target share in observed games (%)
14.6
Fantasy points per game
8.88
Yards per carry
Unavailable
Yards per target
11.7
Yards per reception
14.6
Catch rate (%)
79.6
Total yards
571
Yards per game
47.6
touches
39
first downs
28
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
74.2
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
32.4
Opportunity observed through week
18
Opportunity coverage
complete

This season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
67.7
Time to throw (seconds)
Unavailable
Average depth of pass target (yards)
Unavailable
pass aggressiveness
Unavailable
Completion percentage above expectation
Unavailable
pass air to sticks
Unavailable
pass rating
Unavailable
rush stacked box pct
Unavailable
rush time to los
Unavailable
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
Unavailable
rush efficiency
Unavailable
rush pct over expected
Unavailable
rec avg separation
3.12
rec avg cushion
6.52
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
8.8
rec air share
18.33
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
1.94
rec catch pct
79.31
rec drops
0
rec broken tackles
3
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
Unavailable
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
Unavailable
rush broken tackles
Unavailable
pass pressured pct
Unavailable
pass bad throw pct
Unavailable
rec drop pct
0

Previous season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
37.4
Time to throw (seconds)
Unavailable
Average depth of pass target (yards)
Unavailable
pass aggressiveness
Unavailable
Completion percentage above expectation
Unavailable
pass air to sticks
Unavailable
pass rating
Unavailable
rush stacked box pct
Unavailable
rush time to los
Unavailable
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
Unavailable
rush efficiency
Unavailable
rush pct over expected
Unavailable
rec avg separation
3.42
rec avg cushion
6.03
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
9.1
rec air share
13
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
1.03
rec catch pct
79.59
rec drops
1
rec broken tackles
1
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
Unavailable
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
Unavailable
rush broken tackles
Unavailable
pass pressured pct
Unavailable
pass bad throw pct
Unavailable
rec drop pct
2

Player narrative and news

Generated narrative is context, not a verified injury forecast or a weekly recommendation. Inspect its own dates before using it.

Write-up generated: 2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00

On a 37.4 percent snap share, sixth percentile at the position, Kincaid produced one of the strangest lines of 2025. His 9.09 aDOT led every qualified tight end, his 11.7 yards per target led them too, and he still caught 79.6 percent of his targets, a combination that barely coexists since target depth usually taxes catch rate. Add an 86th-percentile YAC over expected and it sums to 32.4 points above his expected total, a 1.44 ratio, from a part-timer seeing 4.1 targets a game. Buffalo's offense ranks fifth by implied team totals, so any expansion of the role converts to real points quickly. The market is effectively betting those snaps arrive: 97.5 overall (TE9) in half-PPR against a projection of TE14 and 131 points, a full tier ahead of what the consensus numbers support. The per-snap resume argues he earned a bigger job, and the same coaching staff spent all of last season declining to hand it to him, which is the entire tension in the pick.

Latest stored news context

{
  "digest": "Dalton Kincaid catches one pass in Week 5 — Kincaid was quiet on Monday night, his second straight slow outing. After starting the season hot, Kincaid has just two catches for 14 yards over his past two contests. Overall, the veteran tight end has 16 catches for 277 yards and one touchdown through five games. He will be a low-end TE1 in Week 6 against the Raiders.",
  "latest_at": "2026-10-13T09:39:53+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-14T09:00:25.040518+00:00",
  "llm_sentiment": -1,
  "llm_injury_trajectory": 0,
  "llm_severity": 0,
  "llm_weeks_out": null,
  "llm_offfield_risk": 0,
  "llm_key_phrases": "quiet on monday; second straight slow; low-end te1; just two catches; two catches for",
  "llm_role_change": 0,
  "llm_usage_outlook": -1,
  "llm_team_context": 0,
  "llm_relevance": 0.9,
  "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-14T09:06:02.796152+00:00",
  "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
  "inference_status": "current"
}

Profile freshness: {"writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "current", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."}

Stored injury context

{
  "status": "questionable",
  "exp_miss_next6": 1.6780349575271793,
  "as_of": "2026-10-31",
  "source": "curves-v1"
}
Complete source evidence
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  "outcome_readiness": {
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  "valuation_context": {
    "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback",
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    "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7,
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    "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.",
    "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.",
    "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.",
    "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."
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    "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.",
    "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.",
    "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.",
    "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.",
    "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.",
    "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."
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  "player": {
    "sleeper_id": "10236",
    "name": "Dalton Kincaid",
    "team": "BUF",
    "pos": "TE",
    "age": 27,
    "exp": 3,
    "injury": "Questionable",
    "rookie": false,
    "value": 17.2,
    "ros_ppg": 8.38,
    "games_left": 10,
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      "ros_ppg": 8.376000000000001,
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      "g": 12,
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      "passing_tds": 0.0,
      "interceptions": 0.0,
      "carries": 0.0,
      "rushing_yards": 0.0,
      "rushing_tds": 0.0,
      "targets": 49.0,
      "receptions": 39.0,
      "receiving_yards": 571.0,
      "receiving_tds": 5.0,
      "passing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "rushing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 28.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 0.0,
      "tgt_share": 14.6,
      "ppg": 8.88,
      "ypc": null,
      "ypt": 11.7,
      "ypr": 14.6,
      "catch_pct": 79.6,
      "total_yd": 571.0,
      "ypg": 47.6,
      "touches": 39.0,
      "first_downs": 28.0,
      "xfp": 74.2,
      "xfp_diff": 32.4,
      "xfp_through_week": 18,
      "xfp_coverage": "complete"
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    "adv": {
      "snap_pct": 37.4,
      "pass_time_to_throw": null,
      "pass_adot": null,
      "pass_aggressiveness": null,
      "pass_cpoe": null,
      "pass_air_to_sticks": null,
      "pass_rating": null,
      "rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
      "rush_time_to_los": null,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
      "rush_efficiency": null,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": null,
      "rec_avg_separation": 3.42,
      "rec_avg_cushion": 6.03,
      "rec_adot": 9.1,
      "rec_air_share": 13.0,
      "rec_yac_above_exp": 1.03,
      "rec_catch_pct": 79.59,
      "rec_drops": 1.0,
      "rec_broken_tackles": 1.0,
      "rush_ybc_att": null,
      "rush_yac_att": null,
      "rush_broken_tackles": null,
      "pass_pressured_pct": null,
      "pass_bad_throw_pct": null,
      "rec_drop_pct": 2.0
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      "targets": 29.0,
      "receptions": 23.0,
      "receiving_yards": 315.0,
      "receiving_tds": 1.0,
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      "fumbles_lost": 1.0,
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      "rec_avg_separation": 3.12,
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      "rec_air_share": 18.33,
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      "rec_catch_pct": 79.31,
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      "rec_broken_tackles": 3.0,
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    },
    "writeup": "On a 37.4 percent snap share, sixth percentile at the position, Kincaid produced one of the strangest lines of 2025. His 9.09 aDOT led every qualified tight end, his 11.7 yards per target led them too, and he still caught 79.6 percent of his targets, a combination that barely coexists since target depth usually taxes catch rate. Add an 86th-percentile YAC over expected and it sums to 32.4 points above his expected total, a 1.44 ratio, from a part-timer seeing 4.1 targets a game. Buffalo's offense ranks fifth by implied team totals, so any expansion of the role converts to real points quickly. The market is effectively betting those snaps arrive: 97.5 overall (TE9) in half-PPR against a projection of TE14 and 131 points, a full tier ahead of what the consensus numbers support. The per-snap resume argues he earned a bigger job, and the same coaching staff spent all of last season declining to hand it to him, which is the entire tension in the pick.",
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    "news": {
      "digest": "Dalton Kincaid catches one pass in Week 5 — Kincaid was quiet on Monday night, his second straight slow outing. After starting the season hot, Kincaid has just two catches for 14 yards over his past two contests. Overall, the veteran tight end has 16 catches for 277 yards and one touchdown through five games. He will be a low-end TE1 in Week 6 against the Raiders.",
      "latest_at": "2026-10-13T09:39:53+00:00",
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}

Use this source carefully