# Dalton Kincaid — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/10236 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/10236", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:20:45.683542+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "10236", "name": "Dalton Kincaid", "team": "BUF", "pos": "TE", "age": 27, "exp": 3, "injury": "Questionable", "rookie": false, "value": 17.2, "ros_ppg": 8.38, "games_left": 10, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 8.376000000000001, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 10 }, "proj": 132, "adp": 91.4, "adp_pr": 10, "ly": { "pts": 106.6, "g": 12, "through_week": 18, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "rushing_yards": 0.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 49.0, "receptions": 39.0, "receiving_yards": 571.0, "receiving_tds": 5.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 28.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 14.6, "ppg": 8.88, "ypc": null, "ypt": 11.7, "ypr": 14.6, "catch_pct": 79.6, "total_yd": 571.0, "ypg": 47.6, "touches": 39.0, "first_downs": 28.0, "xfp": 74.2, "xfp_diff": 32.4, "xfp_through_week": 18, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 37.4, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 3.42, "rec_avg_cushion": 6.03, "rec_adot": 9.1, "rec_air_share": 13.0, "rec_yac_above_exp": 1.03, "rec_catch_pct": 79.59, "rec_drops": 1.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 1.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": null, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 2.0 }, "ytd": { "pts": 47.0, "g": 6, "through_week": 6, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "rushing_yards": 0.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 29.0, "receptions": 23.0, "receiving_yards": 315.0, "receiving_tds": 1.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 11.0, "fumbles_lost": 1.0, "tgt_share": 18.1, "ppg": 7.83, "ypc": null, "ypt": 10.9, "ypr": 13.7, "catch_pct": 79.3, "total_yd": 315.0, "ypg": 52.5, "touches": 23.0, "first_downs": 11.0, "xfp": 41.3, "xfp_diff": 7.7, "xfp_through_week": 6, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 67.7, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 3.12, "rec_avg_cushion": 6.52, "rec_adot": 8.8, "rec_air_share": 18.33, "rec_yac_above_exp": 1.94, "rec_catch_pct": 79.31, "rec_drops": 0.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 3.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": null, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 0.0 } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "10236", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:20:45.689398+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "current", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "On a 37.4 percent snap share, sixth percentile at the position, Kincaid produced one of the strangest lines of 2025. His 9.09 aDOT led every qualified tight end, his 11.7 yards per target led them too, and he still caught 79.6 percent of his targets, a combination that barely coexists since target depth usually taxes catch rate. Add an 86th-percentile YAC over expected and it sums to 32.4 points above his expected total, a 1.44 ratio, from a part-timer seeing 4.1 targets a game. Buffalo's offense ranks fifth by implied team totals, so any expansion of the role converts to real points quickly. The market is effectively betting those snaps arrive: 97.5 overall (TE9) in half-PPR against a projection of TE14 and 131 points, a full tier ahead of what the consensus numbers support. The per-snap resume argues he earned a bigger job, and the same coaching staff spent all of last season declining to hand it to him, which is the entire tension in the pick.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Dalton Kincaid catches one pass in Week 5 — Kincaid was quiet on Monday night, his second straight slow outing. After starting the season hot, Kincaid has just two catches for 14 yards over his past two contests. Overall, the veteran tight end has 16 catches for 277 yards and one touchdown through five games. He will be a low-end TE1 in Week 6 against the Raiders.", "latest_at": "2026-10-13T09:39:53+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-10-14T09:00:25.040518+00:00", "llm_sentiment": -1, "llm_injury_trajectory": 0, "llm_severity": 0, "llm_weeks_out": null, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "quiet on monday; second straight slow; low-end te1; just two catches; two catches for", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": -1, "llm_team_context": 0, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-14T09:06:02.796152+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": { "status": "questionable", "exp_miss_next6": 1.6780349575271793, "as_of": "2026-10-31", "source": "curves-v1" }, "injury_outlook_last_captured": { "status": "questionable", "exp_miss_next6": 1.6780349575271793, "as_of": "2026-10-31", "source": "curves-v1" } } } ```