FOOTBALLQUANTS

Player sourcebook / WR · ARI

Michael Wilson

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Season / week
2026 / 8
Scoring
HALF · 12 teams · 1 QB
Source freshness
partial
Observed season stats
Through week 8; complete through week 7. The latest week may be partial.

Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt.

outcomes
ready
Captured 2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00; complete through week 7
season projection
preseason prior
Captured Unknown
draft adp
preseason context
Captured Unknown
advanced stats
coverage not verified
Captured Unknown
Model version and retrieval details

Model generated: 2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00. Model generation time does not establish source freshness.

Model version: trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1

Data version: board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8

Retrieved 2026-11-01T01:38:18.033893+00:00. This is the page retrieval time, not a source update.

Scroll the table to see every column.

Alphabetical player research. Observed points use posted games; future estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. Open a player for forecast dates and missing weeks. Trade values are model units.
PlayerPosTeamObserved points/gameGames playedEstimated future points/gameTrade value
Michael Wilson WRARI 9.06710.9730.9

Future projection context

These estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. They do not identify who to start this week; use your league's lineup tool for that decision.

Forecast source
Captured Sleeper future projections
Forecast captured
2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00
Unstarted games through Week 17
9
Weeks with provider forecasts
8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 15, 16, 17
Weeks using model fallback
None recorded

Draft context

Historical context, not a weekly ranking or remaining-season forecast.

Full-season preseason projection
144
Draft average position
89.7

Observed production

Observed statistics are separate from model estimates. A missing season block means unavailable data.

This season

Fantasy points
63.4
Games played
7
Observed through week
7
passing yards
7
passing tds
0
interceptions
0
carries
2
rushing yards
11
rushing tds
0
targets
66
receptions
37
receiving yards
375
receiving tds
1
passing first downs
1
rushing first downs
0
receiving first downs
25
fumbles lost
0
Target share in observed games (%)
24.3
Fantasy points per game
9.06
Yards per carry
5.5
Yards per target
5.7
Yards per reception
10.1
Catch rate (%)
56.1
Total yards
393
Yards per game
56.1
touches
39
first downs
25
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
107.6
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
-44.5
Opportunity observed through week
7
Opportunity coverage
complete

Previous season

Fantasy points
181.6
Games played
17
Observed through week
18
passing yards
0
passing tds
0
interceptions
0
carries
0
rushing yards
0
rushing tds
0
targets
126
receptions
78
receiving yards
1,006
receiving tds
7
passing first downs
0
rushing first downs
0
receiving first downs
51
fumbles lost
0
Target share in observed games (%)
20.4
Fantasy points per game
10.68
Yards per carry
Unavailable
Yards per target
8
Yards per reception
12.9
Catch rate (%)
61.9
Total yards
1,006
Yards per game
59.2
touches
78
first downs
51
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
184.3
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
-2.7
Opportunity observed through week
18
Opportunity coverage
complete

This season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
90.3
Time to throw (seconds)
Unavailable
Average depth of pass target (yards)
Unavailable
pass aggressiveness
Unavailable
Completion percentage above expectation
Unavailable
pass air to sticks
Unavailable
pass rating
Unavailable
rush stacked box pct
Unavailable
rush time to los
Unavailable
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
Unavailable
rush efficiency
Unavailable
rush pct over expected
Unavailable
rec avg separation
2.49
rec avg cushion
5.63
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
10.76
rec air share
35.49
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
-0.37
rec catch pct
56.06
rec drops
0
rec broken tackles
0
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
Unavailable
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
Unavailable
rush broken tackles
0
pass pressured pct
Unavailable
pass bad throw pct
Unavailable
rec drop pct
0

Previous season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
81.4
Time to throw (seconds)
Unavailable
Average depth of pass target (yards)
Unavailable
pass aggressiveness
Unavailable
Completion percentage above expectation
Unavailable
pass air to sticks
Unavailable
pass rating
Unavailable
rush stacked box pct
Unavailable
rush time to los
Unavailable
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
Unavailable
rush efficiency
Unavailable
rush pct over expected
Unavailable
rec avg separation
2.43
rec avg cushion
5.98
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
11.42
rec air share
31.94
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
0.49
rec catch pct
61.9
rec drops
1
rec broken tackles
3
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
Unavailable
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
Unavailable
rush broken tackles
Unavailable
pass pressured pct
Unavailable
pass bad throw pct
Unavailable
rec drop pct
0.8

Player narrative and news

Generated narrative is context, not a verified injury forecast or a weekly recommendation. Inspect its own dates before using it.

Write-up generated: 2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00

Hardly anyone talks about Michael Wilson finishing 11th among wide receivers in total points last season. The season was built honestly, 126 targets, a 20.4 percent target share in the 84th percentile, 1,006 yards and seven scores, with exactly one drop all year at a 0.8 percent rate that sits among the very best in the qualified pool. His 182 points landed within three of his usage-based expectation, so nothing about the year screams fluke, and 17 games mean it wasn't a hot-streak sample either. The 2026 consensus refuses to carry it forward, projecting him at WR45 on the assumption his target share shrinks, and Vegas piles on with an 18.3 implied team total for Arizona on early lines, lowest in the league. His half-PPR ADP of 83, WR37, splits the difference, above his projection but nowhere near what a repeat would return. That leaves an actual decision instead of a consensus to follow. Believing in him means believing a 26-year-old who just earned a fifth of his team's targets keeps a real share of them, and the main costs are 26th-percentile separation and an offense the oddsmakers have already buried.

Latest stored news context

{
  "digest": "Michael Wilson underwhelming in loss Sunday — Wilson wasn't able to do much on Sunday, totaling just 30 yards on four catches in a loss to the Lions. He should be the team's clear-cut WR1 moving forward moving forward with Marvin Harrison Jr. now out of town, but he's still subject to having some stinker performances on a week-to-week basis.",
  "latest_at": "2026-10-12T15:45:58+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-13T09:00:05.789124+00:00",
  "llm_sentiment": 0,
  "llm_injury_trajectory": 0,
  "llm_severity": 0,
  "llm_weeks_out": null,
  "llm_offfield_risk": 0,
  "llm_key_phrases": "underwhelming in loss; clear-cut wr1; marvin harrison jr out; week-to-week basis; 30 yards on four catches",
  "llm_role_change": 1,
  "llm_usage_outlook": 1,
  "llm_team_context": 1,
  "llm_relevance": 0.9,
  "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-13T09:01:33.869292+00:00",
  "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
  "inference_status": "current"
}

Profile freshness: {"writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "unavailable", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."}

Complete source evidence
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    "exp": 3,
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    "value": 30.9,
    "ros_ppg": 10.97,
    "games_left": 9,
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      "receiving_yards": 1006.0,
      "receiving_tds": 7.0,
      "passing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "rushing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 51.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 0.0,
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      "ypc": null,
      "ypt": 8.0,
      "ypr": 12.9,
      "catch_pct": 61.9,
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      "ypg": 59.2,
      "touches": 78.0,
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      "pass_time_to_throw": null,
      "pass_adot": null,
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      "pass_cpoe": null,
      "pass_air_to_sticks": null,
      "pass_rating": null,
      "rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
      "rush_time_to_los": null,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
      "rush_efficiency": null,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": null,
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      "rec_avg_cushion": 5.98,
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      "rec_broken_tackles": 3.0,
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    "writeup": "Hardly anyone talks about Michael Wilson finishing 11th among wide receivers in total points last season. The season was built honestly, 126 targets, a 20.4 percent target share in the 84th percentile, 1,006 yards and seven scores, with exactly one drop all year at a 0.8 percent rate that sits among the very best in the qualified pool. His 182 points landed within three of his usage-based expectation, so nothing about the year screams fluke, and 17 games mean it wasn't a hot-streak sample either. The 2026 consensus refuses to carry it forward, projecting him at WR45 on the assumption his target share shrinks, and Vegas piles on with an 18.3 implied team total for Arizona on early lines, lowest in the league. His half-PPR ADP of 83, WR37, splits the difference, above his projection but nowhere near what a repeat would return. That leaves an actual decision instead of a consensus to follow. Believing in him means believing a 26-year-old who just earned a fifth of his team's targets keeps a real share of them, and the main costs are 26th-percentile separation and an offense the oddsmakers have already buried.",
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Use this source carefully