Player sourcebook / WR · ARI
Michael Wilson
Read as Markdown · JSON · Interactive board
- Season / week
- 2026 / 8
- Scoring
- HALF · 12 teams · 1 QB
- Source freshness
- partial
- Observed season stats
- Through week 8; complete through week 7. The latest week may be partial.
Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt.
- outcomes
- ready
Captured 2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00; complete through week 7 - season projection
- preseason prior
Captured Unknown - draft adp
- preseason context
Captured Unknown - advanced stats
- coverage not verified
Captured Unknown
Model version and retrieval details
Model generated: 2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00. Model generation time does not establish source freshness.
Model version: trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1
Data version: board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8
Retrieved 2026-11-01T01:38:18.033893+00:00. This is the page retrieval time, not a source update.
Scroll the table to see every column.
| Player | Pos | Team | Observed points/game | Games played | Estimated future points/game | Trade value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Wilson | WR | ARI | 9.06 | 7 | 10.97 | 30.9 |
Future projection context
These estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. They do not identify who to start this week; use your league's lineup tool for that decision.
- Forecast source
- Captured Sleeper future projections
- Forecast captured
- 2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00
- Unstarted games through Week 17
- 9
- Weeks with provider forecasts
- 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 15, 16, 17
- Weeks using model fallback
- None recorded
Draft context
Historical context, not a weekly ranking or remaining-season forecast.
- Full-season preseason projection
- 144
- Draft average position
- 89.7
Observed production
Observed statistics are separate from model estimates. A missing season block means unavailable data.
This season
- Fantasy points
- 63.4
- Games played
- 7
- Observed through week
- 7
- passing yards
- 7
- passing tds
- 0
- interceptions
- 0
- carries
- 2
- rushing yards
- 11
- rushing tds
- 0
- targets
- 66
- receptions
- 37
- receiving yards
- 375
- receiving tds
- 1
- passing first downs
- 1
- rushing first downs
- 0
- receiving first downs
- 25
- fumbles lost
- 0
- Target share in observed games (%)
- 24.3
- Fantasy points per game
- 9.06
- Yards per carry
- 5.5
- Yards per target
- 5.7
- Yards per reception
- 10.1
- Catch rate (%)
- 56.1
- Total yards
- 393
- Yards per game
- 56.1
- touches
- 39
- first downs
- 25
- Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
- 107.6
- Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
- -44.5
- Opportunity observed through week
- 7
- Opportunity coverage
- complete
Previous season
- Fantasy points
- 181.6
- Games played
- 17
- Observed through week
- 18
- passing yards
- 0
- passing tds
- 0
- interceptions
- 0
- carries
- 0
- rushing yards
- 0
- rushing tds
- 0
- targets
- 126
- receptions
- 78
- receiving yards
- 1,006
- receiving tds
- 7
- passing first downs
- 0
- rushing first downs
- 0
- receiving first downs
- 51
- fumbles lost
- 0
- Target share in observed games (%)
- 20.4
- Fantasy points per game
- 10.68
- Yards per carry
- Unavailable
- Yards per target
- 8
- Yards per reception
- 12.9
- Catch rate (%)
- 61.9
- Total yards
- 1,006
- Yards per game
- 59.2
- touches
- 78
- first downs
- 51
- Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
- 184.3
- Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
- -2.7
- Opportunity observed through week
- 18
- Opportunity coverage
- complete
This season: advanced statistics
- Snap share (%)
- 90.3
- Time to throw (seconds)
- Unavailable
- Average depth of pass target (yards)
- Unavailable
- pass aggressiveness
- Unavailable
- Completion percentage above expectation
- Unavailable
- pass air to sticks
- Unavailable
- pass rating
- Unavailable
- rush stacked box pct
- Unavailable
- rush time to los
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
- Unavailable
- rush efficiency
- Unavailable
- rush pct over expected
- Unavailable
- rec avg separation
- 2.49
- rec avg cushion
- 5.63
- Average depth of receiving target (yards)
- 10.76
- rec air share
- 35.49
- Receiving yards after catch above expectation
- -0.37
- rec catch pct
- 56.06
- rec drops
- 0
- rec broken tackles
- 0
- Rushing yards before contact per attempt
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards after contact per attempt
- Unavailable
- rush broken tackles
- 0
- pass pressured pct
- Unavailable
- pass bad throw pct
- Unavailable
- rec drop pct
- 0
Previous season: advanced statistics
- Snap share (%)
- 81.4
- Time to throw (seconds)
- Unavailable
- Average depth of pass target (yards)
- Unavailable
- pass aggressiveness
- Unavailable
- Completion percentage above expectation
- Unavailable
- pass air to sticks
- Unavailable
- pass rating
- Unavailable
- rush stacked box pct
- Unavailable
- rush time to los
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
- Unavailable
- rush efficiency
- Unavailable
- rush pct over expected
- Unavailable
- rec avg separation
- 2.43
- rec avg cushion
- 5.98
- Average depth of receiving target (yards)
- 11.42
- rec air share
- 31.94
- Receiving yards after catch above expectation
- 0.49
- rec catch pct
- 61.9
- rec drops
- 1
- rec broken tackles
- 3
- Rushing yards before contact per attempt
- Unavailable
- Rushing yards after contact per attempt
- Unavailable
- rush broken tackles
- Unavailable
- pass pressured pct
- Unavailable
- pass bad throw pct
- Unavailable
- rec drop pct
- 0.8
Player narrative and news
Generated narrative is context, not a verified injury forecast or a weekly recommendation. Inspect its own dates before using it.
Write-up generated: 2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00
Latest stored news context
{
"digest": "Michael Wilson underwhelming in loss Sunday — Wilson wasn't able to do much on Sunday, totaling just 30 yards on four catches in a loss to the Lions. He should be the team's clear-cut WR1 moving forward moving forward with Marvin Harrison Jr. now out of town, but he's still subject to having some stinker performances on a week-to-week basis.",
"latest_at": "2026-10-12T15:45:58+00:00",
"updated_at": "2026-10-13T09:00:05.789124+00:00",
"llm_sentiment": 0,
"llm_injury_trajectory": 0,
"llm_severity": 0,
"llm_weeks_out": null,
"llm_offfield_risk": 0,
"llm_key_phrases": "underwhelming in loss; clear-cut wr1; marvin harrison jr out; week-to-week basis; 30 yards on four catches",
"llm_role_change": 1,
"llm_usage_outlook": 1,
"llm_team_context": 1,
"llm_relevance": 0.9,
"llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-13T09:01:33.869292+00:00",
"llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
"inference_status": "current"
}Profile freshness: {"writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "unavailable", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."}
Complete source evidence
{
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"season": 2026,
"week": 8,
"last_season": 2025,
"fmt": "half",
"teams": 12,
"qb": 1,
"mode": "inseason",
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"expected_week": 8,
"warnings": [],
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"completed_through_week": 7
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"draft_adp": {
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"advanced_stats": {
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"captured_at": null
}
},
"note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."
},
"outcome_readiness": {
"completed_week": 7,
"fresh": true,
"checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00",
"status": "ready"
},
"valuation_context": {
"phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback",
"fallback_phase": "in_season_blend",
"fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7,
"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true,
"advanced_stats_priced": false,
"injury_outlook": "annotation_only",
"remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games"
},
"value_locked": null,
"ytd_through_week": 8,
"ytd_complete_through_week": 7,
"sources": [
{
"name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board",
"url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"
}
],
"limitations": [
"Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.",
"generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.",
"Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.",
"Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.",
"League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."
],
"metric_definitions": {
"proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.",
"adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.",
"ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.",
"tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.",
"ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.",
"projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.",
"value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.",
"xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.",
"xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."
},
"access": {
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"pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app",
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"player": {
"sleeper_id": "10232",
"name": "Michael Wilson",
"team": "ARI",
"pos": "WR",
"age": 26,
"exp": 3,
"injury": null,
"rookie": false,
"value": 30.9,
"ros_ppg": 10.97,
"games_left": 9,
"projection": {
"ros_ppg": 10.96688888888889,
"source": "sleeper_future",
"captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00",
"covered_weeks": [
8,
9,
10,
11,
12,
13,
15,
16,
17
],
"missing_weeks": [],
"remaining_games": 9
},
"proj": 144,
"adp": 89.7,
"adp_pr": 38,
"ly": {
"pts": 181.6,
"g": 17,
"through_week": 18,
"passing_yards": 0.0,
"passing_tds": 0.0,
"interceptions": 0.0,
"carries": 0.0,
"rushing_yards": 0.0,
"rushing_tds": 0.0,
"targets": 126.0,
"receptions": 78.0,
"receiving_yards": 1006.0,
"receiving_tds": 7.0,
"passing_first_downs": 0.0,
"rushing_first_downs": 0.0,
"receiving_first_downs": 51.0,
"fumbles_lost": 0.0,
"tgt_share": 20.4,
"ppg": 10.68,
"ypc": null,
"ypt": 8.0,
"ypr": 12.9,
"catch_pct": 61.9,
"total_yd": 1006.0,
"ypg": 59.2,
"touches": 78.0,
"first_downs": 51.0,
"xfp": 184.3,
"xfp_diff": -2.7,
"xfp_through_week": 18,
"xfp_coverage": "complete"
},
"adv": {
"snap_pct": 81.4,
"pass_time_to_throw": null,
"pass_adot": null,
"pass_aggressiveness": null,
"pass_cpoe": null,
"pass_air_to_sticks": null,
"pass_rating": null,
"rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
"rush_time_to_los": null,
"rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
"rush_efficiency": null,
"rush_pct_over_expected": null,
"rec_avg_separation": 2.43,
"rec_avg_cushion": 5.98,
"rec_adot": 11.42,
"rec_air_share": 31.94,
"rec_yac_above_exp": 0.49,
"rec_catch_pct": 61.9,
"rec_drops": 1.0,
"rec_broken_tackles": 3.0,
"rush_ybc_att": null,
"rush_yac_att": null,
"rush_broken_tackles": null,
"pass_pressured_pct": null,
"pass_bad_throw_pct": null,
"rec_drop_pct": 0.8
},
"ytd": {
"pts": 63.4,
"g": 7,
"through_week": 7,
"passing_yards": 7.0,
"passing_tds": 0.0,
"interceptions": 0.0,
"carries": 2.0,
"rushing_yards": 11.0,
"rushing_tds": 0.0,
"targets": 66.0,
"receptions": 37.0,
"receiving_yards": 375.0,
"receiving_tds": 1.0,
"passing_first_downs": 1.0,
"rushing_first_downs": 0.0,
"receiving_first_downs": 25.0,
"fumbles_lost": 0.0,
"tgt_share": 24.3,
"ppg": 9.06,
"ypc": 5.5,
"ypt": 5.7,
"ypr": 10.1,
"catch_pct": 56.1,
"total_yd": 393.0,
"ypg": 56.1,
"touches": 39.0,
"first_downs": 25.0,
"xfp": 107.6,
"xfp_diff": -44.5,
"xfp_through_week": 7,
"xfp_coverage": "complete"
},
"adv_ytd": {
"snap_pct": 90.3,
"pass_time_to_throw": null,
"pass_adot": null,
"pass_aggressiveness": null,
"pass_cpoe": null,
"pass_air_to_sticks": null,
"pass_rating": null,
"rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
"rush_time_to_los": null,
"rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
"rush_efficiency": null,
"rush_pct_over_expected": null,
"rec_avg_separation": 2.49,
"rec_avg_cushion": 5.63,
"rec_adot": 10.76,
"rec_air_share": 35.49,
"rec_yac_above_exp": -0.37,
"rec_catch_pct": 56.06,
"rec_drops": 0.0,
"rec_broken_tackles": 0.0,
"rush_ybc_att": null,
"rush_yac_att": null,
"rush_broken_tackles": 0.0,
"pass_pressured_pct": null,
"pass_bad_throw_pct": null,
"rec_drop_pct": 0.0
}
},
"profile": {
"sleeper_id": "10232",
"season": 2026,
"as_of": "2026-11-01T01:38:18.039871+00:00",
"freshness": {
"writeup": "preseason_context",
"news": "stale",
"news_inference": "current",
"injury_outlook": "unavailable",
"note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."
},
"writeup": "Hardly anyone talks about Michael Wilson finishing 11th among wide receivers in total points last season. The season was built honestly, 126 targets, a 20.4 percent target share in the 84th percentile, 1,006 yards and seven scores, with exactly one drop all year at a 0.8 percent rate that sits among the very best in the qualified pool. His 182 points landed within three of his usage-based expectation, so nothing about the year screams fluke, and 17 games mean it wasn't a hot-streak sample either. The 2026 consensus refuses to carry it forward, projecting him at WR45 on the assumption his target share shrinks, and Vegas piles on with an 18.3 implied team total for Arizona on early lines, lowest in the league. His half-PPR ADP of 83, WR37, splits the difference, above his projection but nowhere near what a repeat would return. That leaves an actual decision instead of a consensus to follow. Believing in him means believing a 26-year-old who just earned a fifth of his team's targets keeps a real share of them, and the main costs are 26th-percentile separation and an offense the oddsmakers have already buried.",
"writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00",
"news": {
"digest": "Michael Wilson underwhelming in loss Sunday — Wilson wasn't able to do much on Sunday, totaling just 30 yards on four catches in a loss to the Lions. He should be the team's clear-cut WR1 moving forward moving forward with Marvin Harrison Jr. now out of town, but he's still subject to having some stinker performances on a week-to-week basis.",
"latest_at": "2026-10-12T15:45:58+00:00",
"updated_at": "2026-10-13T09:00:05.789124+00:00",
"llm_sentiment": 0,
"llm_injury_trajectory": 0,
"llm_severity": 0,
"llm_weeks_out": null,
"llm_offfield_risk": 0,
"llm_key_phrases": "underwhelming in loss; clear-cut wr1; marvin harrison jr out; week-to-week basis; 30 yards on four catches",
"llm_role_change": 1,
"llm_usage_outlook": 1,
"llm_team_context": 1,
"llm_relevance": 0.9,
"llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-13T09:01:33.869292+00:00",
"llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
"inference_status": "current"
},
"injury_outlook": null,
"injury_outlook_last_captured": null
}
}Use this source carefully
- Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.
- generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.
- Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.
- Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.
- League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring.