# Michael Wilson — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/10232 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/10232", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:22:51.783220+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "10232", "name": "Michael Wilson", "team": "ARI", "pos": "WR", "age": 26, "exp": 3, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 30.9, "ros_ppg": 10.97, "games_left": 9, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 10.96688888888889, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 9 }, "proj": 144, "adp": 89.7, "adp_pr": 38, "ly": { "pts": 181.6, "g": 17, "through_week": 18, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "rushing_yards": 0.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 126.0, "receptions": 78.0, "receiving_yards": 1006.0, "receiving_tds": 7.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 51.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 20.4, "ppg": 10.68, "ypc": null, "ypt": 8.0, "ypr": 12.9, "catch_pct": 61.9, "total_yd": 1006.0, "ypg": 59.2, "touches": 78.0, "first_downs": 51.0, "xfp": 184.3, "xfp_diff": -2.7, "xfp_through_week": 18, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 81.4, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 2.43, "rec_avg_cushion": 5.98, "rec_adot": 11.42, "rec_air_share": 31.94, "rec_yac_above_exp": 0.49, "rec_catch_pct": 61.9, "rec_drops": 1.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 3.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": null, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 0.8 }, "ytd": { "pts": 63.4, "g": 7, "through_week": 7, "passing_yards": 7.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 2.0, "rushing_yards": 11.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 66.0, "receptions": 37.0, "receiving_yards": 375.0, "receiving_tds": 1.0, "passing_first_downs": 1.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 25.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 24.3, "ppg": 9.06, "ypc": 5.5, "ypt": 5.7, "ypr": 10.1, "catch_pct": 56.1, "total_yd": 393.0, "ypg": 56.1, "touches": 39.0, "first_downs": 25.0, "xfp": 107.6, "xfp_diff": -44.5, "xfp_through_week": 7, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 90.3, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 2.49, "rec_avg_cushion": 5.63, "rec_adot": 10.76, "rec_air_share": 35.49, "rec_yac_above_exp": -0.37, "rec_catch_pct": 56.06, "rec_drops": 0.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 0.0 } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "10232", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:22:51.786641+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "unavailable", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Hardly anyone talks about Michael Wilson finishing 11th among wide receivers in total points last season. The season was built honestly, 126 targets, a 20.4 percent target share in the 84th percentile, 1,006 yards and seven scores, with exactly one drop all year at a 0.8 percent rate that sits among the very best in the qualified pool. His 182 points landed within three of his usage-based expectation, so nothing about the year screams fluke, and 17 games mean it wasn't a hot-streak sample either. The 2026 consensus refuses to carry it forward, projecting him at WR45 on the assumption his target share shrinks, and Vegas piles on with an 18.3 implied team total for Arizona on early lines, lowest in the league. His half-PPR ADP of 83, WR37, splits the difference, above his projection but nowhere near what a repeat would return. That leaves an actual decision instead of a consensus to follow. Believing in him means believing a 26-year-old who just earned a fifth of his team's targets keeps a real share of them, and the main costs are 26th-percentile separation and an offense the oddsmakers have already buried.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Michael Wilson underwhelming in loss Sunday — Wilson wasn't able to do much on Sunday, totaling just 30 yards on four catches in a loss to the Lions. He should be the team's clear-cut WR1 moving forward moving forward with Marvin Harrison Jr. now out of town, but he's still subject to having some stinker performances on a week-to-week basis.", "latest_at": "2026-10-12T15:45:58+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-10-13T09:00:05.789124+00:00", "llm_sentiment": 0, "llm_injury_trajectory": 0, "llm_severity": 0, "llm_weeks_out": null, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "underwhelming in loss; clear-cut wr1; marvin harrison jr out; week-to-week basis; 30 yards on four catches", "llm_role_change": 1, "llm_usage_outlook": 1, "llm_team_context": 1, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-13T09:01:33.869292+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": null } } ```