FOOTBALLQUANTS

Player sourcebook / WR · HOU

Xavier Hutchinson

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Season / week
2026 / 8
Scoring
HALF · 12 teams · 1 QB
Source freshness
partial
Observed season stats
Through week 8; complete through week 7. The latest week may be partial.

Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt.

outcomes
ready
Captured 2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00; complete through week 7
season projection
preseason prior
Captured Unknown
draft adp
preseason context
Captured Unknown
advanced stats
coverage not verified
Captured Unknown
Model version and retrieval details

Model generated: 2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00. Model generation time does not establish source freshness.

Model version: trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1

Data version: board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8

Retrieved 2026-11-01T01:40:13.091719+00:00. This is the page retrieval time, not a source update.

Scroll the table to see every column.

Alphabetical player research. Observed points use posted games; future estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. Open a player for forecast dates and missing weeks. Trade values are model units.
PlayerPosTeamObserved points/gameGames playedEstimated future points/gameTrade value
Xavier Hutchinson WRHOU 6.2773.310

Future projection context

These estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. They do not identify who to start this week; use your league's lineup tool for that decision.

Forecast source
Captured Sleeper future projections
Forecast captured
2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00
Unstarted games through Week 17
9
Weeks with provider forecasts
9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
Weeks using model fallback
None recorded

Draft context

Historical context, not a weekly ranking or remaining-season forecast.

Full-season preseason projection
83
Draft average position
679.1

Observed production

Observed statistics are separate from model estimates. A missing season block means unavailable data.

This season

Fantasy points
43.9
Games played
7
Observed through week
7
passing yards
0
passing tds
0
interceptions
0
carries
4
rushing yards
16
rushing tds
0
targets
40
receptions
21
receiving yards
258
receiving tds
1
passing first downs
0
rushing first downs
2
receiving first downs
13
fumbles lost
0
Target share in observed games (%)
17.3
Fantasy points per game
6.27
Yards per carry
4
Yards per target
6.5
Yards per reception
12.3
Catch rate (%)
52.5
Total yards
274
Yards per game
39.1
touches
25
first downs
15
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
60.7
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
-16.8
Opportunity observed through week
7
Opportunity coverage
complete

Previous season

Fantasy points
80.5
Games played
16
Observed through week
18
passing yards
0
passing tds
0
interceptions
0
carries
3
rushing yards
22
rushing tds
0
targets
57
receptions
35
receiving yards
428
receiving tds
3
passing first downs
0
rushing first downs
2
receiving first downs
19
fumbles lost
0
Target share in observed games (%)
11.2
Fantasy points per game
5.03
Yards per carry
7.3
Yards per target
7.5
Yards per reception
12.2
Catch rate (%)
61.4
Total yards
450
Yards per game
28.1
touches
38
first downs
21
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
83.6
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
-3.1
Opportunity observed through week
18
Opportunity coverage
complete

This season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
53.3
Time to throw (seconds)
Unavailable
Average depth of pass target (yards)
Unavailable
pass aggressiveness
Unavailable
Completion percentage above expectation
Unavailable
pass air to sticks
Unavailable
pass rating
Unavailable
rush stacked box pct
Unavailable
rush time to los
Unavailable
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
Unavailable
rush efficiency
Unavailable
rush pct over expected
Unavailable
rec avg separation
2.77
rec avg cushion
5.74
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
11.41
rec air share
20.57
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
-0.53
rec catch pct
52.5
rec drops
1
rec broken tackles
0
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
Unavailable
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
Unavailable
rush broken tackles
1
pass pressured pct
Unavailable
pass bad throw pct
Unavailable
rec drop pct
2.5

Previous season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
57.5
Time to throw (seconds)
Unavailable
Average depth of pass target (yards)
Unavailable
pass aggressiveness
Unavailable
Completion percentage above expectation
Unavailable
pass air to sticks
Unavailable
pass rating
Unavailable
rush stacked box pct
Unavailable
rush time to los
Unavailable
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
Unavailable
rush efficiency
Unavailable
rush pct over expected
Unavailable
rec avg separation
2.99
rec avg cushion
5.51
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
9.15
rec air share
11.44
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
0.48
rec catch pct
61.4
rec drops
3
rec broken tackles
3
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
Unavailable
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
Unavailable
rush broken tackles
0
pass pressured pct
Unavailable
pass bad throw pct
Unavailable
rec drop pct
5.3

Player narrative and news

Generated narrative is context, not a verified injury forecast or a weekly recommendation. Inspect its own dates before using it.

Write-up generated: 2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00

Sixteen games, 57 targets, and a fantasy total within three points of his expected output make Hutchinson one of the least mysterious players in this range. Houston used him as a steady fourth or fifth option, he converted the usage at close to face value, and the secondary traits are decent: 73rd percentile separation, 74th percentile broken tackles on receptions, and production earned against tight coverage, judging by a 12th percentile cushion. The 2026 consensus projects him backward from 80.5 points to about 56, presumably assuming target competition, and the market goes further, taking him at 345 as WR123. That prices him below a simple repeat of 2025, and a repeat is exactly what the profile suggests, since no touchdown luck or efficiency spike propped the number up. Nobody wins a week off 3.6 targets a game, so the appeal is narrow, but a bench body who has already banked sixteen stable games is being drafted beneath his own floor, which doesn't happen often even this late.

Latest stored news context

{
  "digest": "Xavier Hutchinson finishes with three grabs in Week 1 — Hutchinson saw the third-most targets from C.J. Stroud on Sunday. The Texans are looking for a No. 2 wide receiver to emerge behind Nico Collins, and though Hutchinson's upside may be limited, he might be the guy at the moment. The fourth-year pro hauled in 35 passes for 428 yards and three scores over 17 games last season. ",
  "latest_at": "2026-09-15T15:43:23+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-09-16T09:00:22.262144+00:00",
  "llm_sentiment": 1,
  "llm_injury_trajectory": 0,
  "llm_severity": 0,
  "llm_weeks_out": null,
  "llm_offfield_risk": 0,
  "llm_key_phrases": "third-most targets; no. 2 wide receiver; might be the guy; finished with three grabs; upside may be limited",
  "llm_role_change": 0,
  "llm_usage_outlook": 1,
  "llm_team_context": 0,
  "llm_relevance": 0.9,
  "llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-16T09:13:47.859351+00:00",
  "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
  "inference_status": "current"
}

Profile freshness: {"writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "unavailable", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."}

Complete source evidence
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    "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.",
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    "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.",
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    "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.",
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    "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.",
    "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."
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  "player": {
    "sleeper_id": "10218",
    "name": "Xavier Hutchinson",
    "team": "HOU",
    "pos": "WR",
    "age": 26,
    "exp": 3,
    "injury": null,
    "rookie": false,
    "value": 0.0,
    "ros_ppg": 3.31,
    "games_left": 9,
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      "g": 16,
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      "passing_tds": 0.0,
      "interceptions": 0.0,
      "carries": 3.0,
      "rushing_yards": 22.0,
      "rushing_tds": 0.0,
      "targets": 57.0,
      "receptions": 35.0,
      "receiving_yards": 428.0,
      "receiving_tds": 3.0,
      "passing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "rushing_first_downs": 2.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 19.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 0.0,
      "tgt_share": 11.2,
      "ppg": 5.03,
      "ypc": 7.3,
      "ypt": 7.5,
      "ypr": 12.2,
      "catch_pct": 61.4,
      "total_yd": 450.0,
      "ypg": 28.1,
      "touches": 38.0,
      "first_downs": 21.0,
      "xfp": 83.6,
      "xfp_diff": -3.1,
      "xfp_through_week": 18,
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    "adv": {
      "snap_pct": 57.5,
      "pass_time_to_throw": null,
      "pass_adot": null,
      "pass_aggressiveness": null,
      "pass_cpoe": null,
      "pass_air_to_sticks": null,
      "pass_rating": null,
      "rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
      "rush_time_to_los": null,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
      "rush_efficiency": null,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": null,
      "rec_avg_separation": 2.99,
      "rec_avg_cushion": 5.51,
      "rec_adot": 9.15,
      "rec_air_share": 11.44,
      "rec_yac_above_exp": 0.48,
      "rec_catch_pct": 61.4,
      "rec_drops": 3.0,
      "rec_broken_tackles": 3.0,
      "rush_ybc_att": null,
      "rush_yac_att": null,
      "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0,
      "pass_pressured_pct": null,
      "pass_bad_throw_pct": null,
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      "targets": 40.0,
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      "receiving_yards": 258.0,
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      "rushing_first_downs": 2.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 13.0,
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      "rec_drops": 1.0,
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    "writeup": "Sixteen games, 57 targets, and a fantasy total within three points of his expected output make Hutchinson one of the least mysterious players in this range. Houston used him as a steady fourth or fifth option, he converted the usage at close to face value, and the secondary traits are decent: 73rd percentile separation, 74th percentile broken tackles on receptions, and production earned against tight coverage, judging by a 12th percentile cushion. The 2026 consensus projects him backward from 80.5 points to about 56, presumably assuming target competition, and the market goes further, taking him at 345 as WR123. That prices him below a simple repeat of 2025, and a repeat is exactly what the profile suggests, since no touchdown luck or efficiency spike propped the number up. Nobody wins a week off 3.6 targets a game, so the appeal is narrow, but a bench body who has already banked sixteen stable games is being drafted beneath his own floor, which doesn't happen often even this late.",
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Use this source carefully