# Xavier Hutchinson — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/10218 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/10218", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:20:32.951857+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "10218", "name": "Xavier Hutchinson", "team": "HOU", "pos": "WR", "age": 26, "exp": 3, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 0.0, "ros_ppg": 3.31, "games_left": 9, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 3.3121111111111112, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 9 }, "proj": 83, "adp": 679.1, "adp_pr": 405, "ly": { "pts": 80.5, "g": 16, "through_week": 18, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 3.0, "rushing_yards": 22.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 57.0, "receptions": 35.0, "receiving_yards": 428.0, "receiving_tds": 3.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 2.0, "receiving_first_downs": 19.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 11.2, "ppg": 5.03, "ypc": 7.3, "ypt": 7.5, "ypr": 12.2, "catch_pct": 61.4, "total_yd": 450.0, "ypg": 28.1, "touches": 38.0, "first_downs": 21.0, "xfp": 83.6, "xfp_diff": -3.1, "xfp_through_week": 18, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 57.5, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 2.99, "rec_avg_cushion": 5.51, "rec_adot": 9.15, "rec_air_share": 11.44, "rec_yac_above_exp": 0.48, "rec_catch_pct": 61.4, "rec_drops": 3.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 3.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 5.3 }, "ytd": { "pts": 43.9, "g": 7, "through_week": 7, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 4.0, "rushing_yards": 16.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 40.0, "receptions": 21.0, "receiving_yards": 258.0, "receiving_tds": 1.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 2.0, "receiving_first_downs": 13.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 17.3, "ppg": 6.27, "ypc": 4.0, "ypt": 6.5, "ypr": 12.3, "catch_pct": 52.5, "total_yd": 274.0, "ypg": 39.1, "touches": 25.0, "first_downs": 15.0, "xfp": 60.7, "xfp_diff": -16.8, "xfp_through_week": 7, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 53.3, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 2.77, "rec_avg_cushion": 5.74, "rec_adot": 11.41, "rec_air_share": 20.57, "rec_yac_above_exp": -0.53, "rec_catch_pct": 52.5, "rec_drops": 1.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 1.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 2.5 } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "10218", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:20:32.954939+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "unavailable", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Sixteen games, 57 targets, and a fantasy total within three points of his expected output make Hutchinson one of the least mysterious players in this range. Houston used him as a steady fourth or fifth option, he converted the usage at close to face value, and the secondary traits are decent: 73rd percentile separation, 74th percentile broken tackles on receptions, and production earned against tight coverage, judging by a 12th percentile cushion. The 2026 consensus projects him backward from 80.5 points to about 56, presumably assuming target competition, and the market goes further, taking him at 345 as WR123. That prices him below a simple repeat of 2025, and a repeat is exactly what the profile suggests, since no touchdown luck or efficiency spike propped the number up. Nobody wins a week off 3.6 targets a game, so the appeal is narrow, but a bench body who has already banked sixteen stable games is being drafted beneath his own floor, which doesn't happen often even this late.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Xavier Hutchinson finishes with three grabs in Week 1 — Hutchinson saw the third-most targets from C.J. Stroud on Sunday. The Texans are looking for a No. 2 wide receiver to emerge behind Nico Collins, and though Hutchinson's upside may be limited, he might be the guy at the moment. The fourth-year pro hauled in 35 passes for 428 yards and three scores over 17 games last season. ", "latest_at": "2026-09-15T15:43:23+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-16T09:00:22.262144+00:00", "llm_sentiment": 1, "llm_injury_trajectory": 0, "llm_severity": 0, "llm_weeks_out": null, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "third-most targets; no. 2 wide receiver; might be the guy; finished with three grabs; upside may be limited", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": 1, "llm_team_context": 0, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-16T09:13:47.859351+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": null } } ```