Justin Herbert

{
  "schema_version": "public-sources.v1",
  "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/6797",
  "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T01:38:42.144766+00:00",
  "season": 2026,
  "week": 8,
  "last_season": 2025,
  "fmt": "half",
  "teams": 12,
  "qb": 1,
  "mode": "inseason",
  "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8",
  "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1",
  "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00",
  "freshness": {
    "status": "partial",
    "expected_season": 2026,
    "served_season": 2026,
    "expected_week": 8,
    "warnings": [],
    "sources": {
      "outcomes": {
        "status": "ready",
        "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00",
        "completed_through_week": 7
      },
      "season_projection": {
        "status": "preseason_prior",
        "captured_at": null
      },
      "draft_adp": {
        "status": "preseason_context",
        "captured_at": null
      },
      "advanced_stats": {
        "status": "coverage_not_verified",
        "captured_at": null
      }
    },
    "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."
  },
  "outcome_readiness": {
    "completed_week": 7,
    "fresh": true,
    "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00",
    "status": "ready"
  },
  "valuation_context": {
    "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback",
    "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend",
    "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7,
    "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true,
    "advanced_stats_priced": false,
    "injury_outlook": "annotation_only",
    "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games"
  },
  "value_locked": null,
  "ytd_through_week": 8,
  "ytd_complete_through_week": 7,
  "sources": [
    {
      "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board",
      "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.",
    "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.",
    "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.",
    "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.",
    "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."
  ],
  "metric_definitions": {
    "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.",
    "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.",
    "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.",
    "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.",
    "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.",
    "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.",
    "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.",
    "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.",
    "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."
  },
  "access": {
    "public": true,
    "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app",
    "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect"
  },
  "player": {
    "sleeper_id": "6797",
    "name": "Justin Herbert",
    "team": "LAC",
    "pos": "QB",
    "age": 28,
    "exp": 6,
    "injury": null,
    "rookie": false,
    "value": 0.0,
    "ros_ppg": 14.14,
    "games_left": 10,
    "projection": {
      "ros_ppg": 14.135679999999999,
      "source": "sleeper_future",
      "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00",
      "covered_weeks": [
        8,
        9,
        10,
        11,
        12,
        13,
        14,
        15,
        16,
        17
      ],
      "missing_weeks": [],
      "remaining_games": 10
    },
    "proj": 288,
    "adp": 80.8,
    "adp_pr": 8,
    "ly": {
      "pts": 284.9,
      "g": 16,
      "through_week": 17,
      "passing_yards": 3727.0,
      "passing_tds": 26.0,
      "interceptions": 13.0,
      "carries": 83.0,
      "rushing_yards": 498.0,
      "rushing_tds": 2.0,
      "targets": 0.0,
      "receptions": 0.0,
      "receiving_yards": 0.0,
      "receiving_tds": 0.0,
      "passing_first_downs": 175.0,
      "rushing_first_downs": 37.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 0.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 2.0,
      "tgt_share": 0.0,
      "ppg": 17.81,
      "ypc": 6.0,
      "ypt": null,
      "ypr": null,
      "catch_pct": null,
      "total_yd": 4225.0,
      "ypg": 264.1,
      "touches": 83.0,
      "first_downs": 37.0,
      "xfp": 49.8,
      "xfp_diff": 12.0,
      "xfp_through_week": 17,
      "xfp_coverage": "complete"
    },
    "adv": {
      "snap_pct": 96.8,
      "pass_time_to_throw": 2.9,
      "pass_adot": 7.97,
      "pass_aggressiveness": 14.65,
      "pass_cpoe": 3.06,
      "pass_air_to_sticks": -0.9,
      "pass_rating": 94.1,
      "rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
      "rush_time_to_los": null,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
      "rush_efficiency": null,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": null,
      "rec_avg_separation": null,
      "rec_avg_cushion": null,
      "rec_adot": null,
      "rec_air_share": null,
      "rec_yac_above_exp": null,
      "rec_catch_pct": null,
      "rec_drops": null,
      "rec_broken_tackles": null,
      "rush_ybc_att": 4.65,
      "rush_yac_att": 1.32,
      "rush_broken_tackles": 3.0,
      "pass_pressured_pct": 28.9,
      "pass_bad_throw_pct": 14.1,
      "rec_drop_pct": null
    },
    "ytd": {
      "pts": 62.4,
      "g": 6,
      "through_week": 6,
      "passing_yards": 1141.0,
      "passing_tds": 5.0,
      "interceptions": 8.0,
      "carries": 29.0,
      "rushing_yards": 168.0,
      "rushing_tds": 0.0,
      "targets": 1.0,
      "receptions": 0.0,
      "receiving_yards": 0.0,
      "receiving_tds": 0.0,
      "passing_first_downs": 53.0,
      "rushing_first_downs": 7.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 0.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 2.0,
      "tgt_share": 0.6,
      "ppg": 10.4,
      "ypc": 5.8,
      "ypt": 0.0,
      "ypr": null,
      "catch_pct": 0.0,
      "total_yd": 1309.0,
      "ypg": 218.2,
      "touches": 29.0,
      "first_downs": 7.0,
      "xfp": 21.8,
      "xfp_diff": -5.0,
      "xfp_through_week": 6,
      "xfp_coverage": "complete"
    },
    "adv_ytd": {
      "snap_pct": 100.0,
      "pass_time_to_throw": 2.81,
      "pass_adot": 8.24,
      "pass_aggressiveness": 15.56,
      "pass_cpoe": -3.49,
      "pass_air_to_sticks": -0.95,
      "pass_rating": 68.77,
      "rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
      "rush_time_to_los": null,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
      "rush_efficiency": null,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": null,
      "rec_avg_separation": null,
      "rec_avg_cushion": null,
      "rec_adot": null,
      "rec_air_share": null,
      "rec_yac_above_exp": null,
      "rec_catch_pct": null,
      "rec_drops": 0.0,
      "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0,
      "rush_ybc_att": null,
      "rush_yac_att": null,
      "rush_broken_tackles": 4.0,
      "pass_pressured_pct": 26.7,
      "pass_bad_throw_pct": 17.8,
      "rec_drop_pct": 0.0
    }
  },
  "profile": {
    "sleeper_id": "6797",
    "season": 2026,
    "as_of": "2026-11-01T01:38:42.150264+00:00",
    "freshness": {
      "writeup": "preseason_context",
      "news": "stale",
      "news_inference": "current",
      "injury_outlook": "unavailable",
      "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."
    },
    "writeup": "Pressure defined Herbert's 2025 season more than any other quarterback's. Only one qualifier was pressured more often than his 28.9 percent rate, yet his CPOE still landed in the 78th percentile and his bad-throw rate came in better than two-thirds of the position, which is about as direct a test of throwing well in bad conditions as charting offers. The quieter development was on the ground, 498 rushing yards, second-most among quarterbacks, at 6.0 a carry. The costs were real too: 13 interceptions, and an 18.6 points-per-game average sitting well above a median week of 15.9, meaning the good and bad versions alternated week to week. Drafters currently take him around pick 86 as QB7 in half-PPR formats, several spots ahead of his QB12 consensus projection, effectively betting that better protection or continued rushing growth closes the gap. Accuracy under duress paired with a genuine rushing contribution is the shape mid-round quarterback breakouts tend to share, which earns the optimism a little more than the projection admits.",
    "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00",
    "news": {
      "digest": "Justin Herbert starts new season with mediocre performance  — Herbert and the Chargers' offense definitely disappointed under new OC Mike McDaniel on Sunday. This was expected by many to be an opening act for a dynamic offense against a sub-par defensive unit. It turned out to be anything but that. Herbert was sacked three times and picked off once while just clearing 200 yards on 27 throws. He did find top receiver Ladd McConkey for an eight-yard TD toss in the third quarter, but that was it as far as putting points on the board through the air. Herbert should still be viewed as a solid QB 1 going into a matchup with the Raiders, but if he disappoints again, the seventh-year pro will drop like a rock. ",
      "latest_at": "2026-09-14T14:03:49+00:00",
      "updated_at": "2026-09-15T10:00:03.130918+00:00",
      "llm_sentiment": -1,
      "llm_injury_trajectory": 0,
      "llm_severity": 0,
      "llm_weeks_out": null,
      "llm_offfield_risk": 0,
      "llm_key_phrases": "mediocre performance; sacked three times; picked off once; clearing 200 yards; solid qb1",
      "llm_role_change": 0,
      "llm_usage_outlook": 0,
      "llm_team_context": -1,
      "llm_relevance": 0.9,
      "llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-15T10:20:34.583300+00:00",
      "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
      "inference_status": "current"
    },
    "injury_outlook": null,
    "injury_outlook_last_captured": null
  }
}