FOOTBALLQUANTS

Player sourcebook / WR · SF

Christian Kirk

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Season / week
2026 / 8
Scoring
HALF · 12 teams · 1 QB
Source freshness
partial
Observed season stats
Through week 8; complete through week 7. The latest week may be partial.

Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt.

outcomes
ready
Captured 2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00; complete through week 7
season projection
preseason prior
Captured Unknown
draft adp
preseason context
Captured Unknown
advanced stats
coverage not verified
Captured Unknown
Model version and retrieval details

Model generated: 2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00. Model generation time does not establish source freshness.

Model version: trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1

Data version: board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8

Retrieved 2026-11-01T01:38:53.143735+00:00. This is the page retrieval time, not a source update.

Scroll the table to see every column.

Alphabetical player research. Observed points use posted games; future estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. Open a player for forecast dates and missing weeks. Trade values are model units.
PlayerPosTeamObserved points/gameGames playedEstimated future points/gameTrade value
Christian Kirk WRSF UnavailableUnavailable1.020

Future projection context

These estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. They do not identify who to start this week; use your league's lineup tool for that decision.

Forecast source
Captured Sleeper future projections
Forecast captured
2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00
Unstarted games through Week 17
9
Weeks with provider forecasts
9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
Weeks using model fallback
None recorded

Draft context

Historical context, not a weekly ranking or remaining-season forecast.

Full-season preseason projection
44
Draft average position
692.7

Observed production

Observed statistics are separate from model estimates. A missing season block means unavailable data.

This season

Unavailable.

Previous season

Fantasy points
43.9
Games played
11
Observed through week
18
passing yards
0
passing tds
0
interceptions
0
carries
0
rushing yards
0
rushing tds
0
targets
52
receptions
28
receiving yards
239
receiving tds
1
passing first downs
0
rushing first downs
0
receiving first downs
12
fumbles lost
0
Target share in observed games (%)
14.4
Fantasy points per game
3.99
Yards per carry
Unavailable
Yards per target
4.6
Yards per reception
8.5
Catch rate (%)
53.8
Total yards
239
Yards per game
21.7
touches
28
first downs
12
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
72
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
-28.1
Opportunity observed through week
18
Opportunity coverage
complete

This season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
30
Time to throw (seconds)
Unavailable
Average depth of pass target (yards)
Unavailable
pass aggressiveness
Unavailable
Completion percentage above expectation
Unavailable
pass air to sticks
Unavailable
pass rating
Unavailable
rush stacked box pct
Unavailable
rush time to los
Unavailable
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
Unavailable
rush efficiency
Unavailable
rush pct over expected
Unavailable
rec avg separation
Unavailable
rec avg cushion
Unavailable
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
Unavailable
rec air share
Unavailable
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
Unavailable
rec catch pct
Unavailable
rec drop pct
Unavailable

Previous season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
48.6
Time to throw (seconds)
Unavailable
Average depth of pass target (yards)
Unavailable
pass aggressiveness
Unavailable
Completion percentage above expectation
Unavailable
pass air to sticks
Unavailable
pass rating
Unavailable
rush stacked box pct
Unavailable
rush time to los
Unavailable
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
Unavailable
rush efficiency
Unavailable
rush pct over expected
Unavailable
rec avg separation
2.52
rec avg cushion
5.84
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
7.22
rec air share
8.24
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
-0.22
rec catch pct
53.85
rec drops
3
rec broken tackles
1
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
Unavailable
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
Unavailable
rush broken tackles
Unavailable
pass pressured pct
Unavailable
pass bad throw pct
Unavailable
rec drop pct
5.8

Player narrative and news

Generated narrative is context, not a verified injury forecast or a weekly recommendation. Inspect its own dates before using it.

Write-up generated: 2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00

Houston gave Christian Kirk a real chance at a bounce-back season in 2025 and mostly used him as a checkdown outlet. His usage was as shallow as it gets: a 7.2-yard aDOT in the 9th percentile at the position, an air-yards share in the 5th, and 4.6 yards per target that ranked dead last among qualified receivers. Normally a minus-28 gap between expected and actual points reads as a rebound flag, and his 72 expected points against 43.9 actual is a sizable one, but the gap here came from catching only 54 percent of easy targets rather than from bad luck on hard ones. Now he's in San Francisco at 29, fifth on the depth chart, in an offense Vegas likes at 25.4 implied points a game, seventh in the league. The consensus projection still sees WR78 and about 85 half-PPR points, while the market lets him go around WR98 near pick 229. That spread makes him a passable final-round flier in deep leagues, though a receiver who produced nothing downfield last year probably needs an injury above him before the environment matters.

Latest stored news context

{
  "digest": "Christian Kirk (calf) hopeful to return to practice next week — Kirk opened the season on injured reserve with a calf injury. ",
  "latest_at": "2026-10-07T07:12:24+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-07T19:00:23.532123+00:00",
  "llm_sentiment": 1,
  "llm_injury_trajectory": 1,
  "llm_severity": 2,
  "llm_weeks_out": 4.0,
  "llm_offfield_risk": 0,
  "llm_key_phrases": "calf injury; hopeful to return; return to practice; injured reserve",
  "llm_role_change": 0,
  "llm_usage_outlook": 0,
  "llm_team_context": 0,
  "llm_relevance": 0.9,
  "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-09T09:34:10.495683+00:00",
  "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
  "inference_status": "current"
}

Profile freshness: {"writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "current", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."}

Stored injury context

{
  "status": "absent",
  "exp_miss_next6": 4.563580908816535,
  "as_of": "2026-10-31",
  "source": "curves-v1"
}
Complete source evidence
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  "freshness": {
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    "served_season": 2026,
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    "warnings": [],
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        "completed_through_week": 7
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      "season_projection": {
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      "draft_adp": {
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      "advanced_stats": {
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  },
  "outcome_readiness": {
    "completed_week": 7,
    "fresh": true,
    "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00",
    "status": "ready"
  },
  "valuation_context": {
    "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback",
    "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend",
    "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7,
    "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true,
    "advanced_stats_priced": false,
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  "value_locked": null,
  "ytd_through_week": 8,
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  "limitations": [
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    "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.",
    "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.",
    "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.",
    "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."
  ],
  "metric_definitions": {
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    "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.",
    "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.",
    "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.",
    "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.",
    "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.",
    "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.",
    "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.",
    "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."
  },
  "access": {
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  "player": {
    "sleeper_id": "4950",
    "name": "Christian Kirk",
    "team": "SF",
    "pos": "WR",
    "age": 29,
    "exp": 8,
    "injury": null,
    "rookie": false,
    "value": 0.0,
    "ros_ppg": 1.02,
    "games_left": 9,
    "projection": {
      "ros_ppg": 1.02,
      "source": "sleeper_future",
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      "covered_weeks": [
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        10,
        11,
        12,
        13,
        14,
        15,
        16,
        17
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    "adp": 692.7,
    "adp_pr": 455,
    "ly": {
      "pts": 43.9,
      "g": 11,
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      "passing_tds": 0.0,
      "interceptions": 0.0,
      "carries": 0.0,
      "rushing_yards": 0.0,
      "rushing_tds": 0.0,
      "targets": 52.0,
      "receptions": 28.0,
      "receiving_yards": 239.0,
      "receiving_tds": 1.0,
      "passing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "rushing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 12.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 0.0,
      "tgt_share": 14.4,
      "ppg": 3.99,
      "ypc": null,
      "ypt": 4.6,
      "ypr": 8.5,
      "catch_pct": 53.8,
      "total_yd": 239.0,
      "ypg": 21.7,
      "touches": 28.0,
      "first_downs": 12.0,
      "xfp": 72.0,
      "xfp_diff": -28.1,
      "xfp_through_week": 18,
      "xfp_coverage": "complete"
    },
    "adv": {
      "snap_pct": 48.6,
      "pass_time_to_throw": null,
      "pass_adot": null,
      "pass_aggressiveness": null,
      "pass_cpoe": null,
      "pass_air_to_sticks": null,
      "pass_rating": null,
      "rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
      "rush_time_to_los": null,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
      "rush_efficiency": null,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": null,
      "rec_avg_separation": 2.52,
      "rec_avg_cushion": 5.84,
      "rec_adot": 7.22,
      "rec_air_share": 8.24,
      "rec_yac_above_exp": -0.22,
      "rec_catch_pct": 53.85,
      "rec_drops": 3.0,
      "rec_broken_tackles": 1.0,
      "rush_ybc_att": null,
      "rush_yac_att": null,
      "rush_broken_tackles": null,
      "pass_pressured_pct": null,
      "pass_bad_throw_pct": null,
      "rec_drop_pct": 5.8
    },
    "ytd": null,
    "adv_ytd": {
      "snap_pct": 30.0,
      "pass_time_to_throw": null,
      "pass_adot": null,
      "pass_aggressiveness": null,
      "pass_cpoe": null,
      "pass_air_to_sticks": null,
      "pass_rating": null,
      "rush_stacked_box_pct": null,
      "rush_time_to_los": null,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": null,
      "rush_efficiency": null,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": null,
      "rec_avg_separation": null,
      "rec_avg_cushion": null,
      "rec_adot": null,
      "rec_air_share": null,
      "rec_yac_above_exp": null,
      "rec_catch_pct": null,
      "rec_drop_pct": null
    }
  },
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    "news": {
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      "updated_at": "2026-10-07T19:00:23.532123+00:00",
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      "llm_injury_trajectory": 1,
      "llm_severity": 2,
      "llm_weeks_out": 4.0,
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      "llm_role_change": 0,
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}

Use this source carefully