FOOTBALLQUANTS

Player sourcebook / RB · SF

Kaelon Black

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Season / week
2026 / 8
Scoring
HALF · 12 teams · 1 QB
Source freshness
partial
Observed season stats
Through week 8; complete through week 7. The latest week may be partial.

Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt.

outcomes
ready
Captured 2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00; complete through week 7
season projection
preseason prior
Captured Unknown
draft adp
preseason context
Captured Unknown
advanced stats
coverage not verified
Captured Unknown
Model version and retrieval details

Model generated: 2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00. Model generation time does not establish source freshness.

Model version: trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1

Data version: board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8

Retrieved 2026-11-01T01:40:44.286132+00:00. This is the page retrieval time, not a source update.

Scroll the table to see every column.

Alphabetical player research. Observed points use posted games; future estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. Open a player for forecast dates and missing weeks. Trade values are model units.
PlayerPosTeamObserved points/gameGames playedEstimated future points/gameTrade value
Kaelon Black RBSF 4.1774.640

Future projection context

These estimates cover unstarted games through Week 17. They do not identify who to start this week; use your league's lineup tool for that decision.

Forecast source
Captured Sleeper future projections
Forecast captured
2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00
Unstarted games through Week 17
9
Weeks with provider forecasts
9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
Weeks using model fallback
None recorded

Draft context

Historical context, not a weekly ranking or remaining-season forecast.

Full-season preseason projection
83
Draft average position
160.9

Observed production

Observed statistics are separate from model estimates. A missing season block means unavailable data.

This season

Fantasy points
29.2
Games played
7
Observed through week
7
passing yards
0
passing tds
0
interceptions
0
carries
57
rushing yards
233
rushing tds
1
targets
6
receptions
3
receiving yards
4
receiving tds
0
passing first downs
0
rushing first downs
11
receiving first downs
0
fumbles lost
1
Target share in observed games (%)
2.9
Fantasy points per game
4.17
Yards per carry
4.1
Yards per target
0.7
Yards per reception
1.3
Catch rate (%)
50
Total yards
237
Yards per game
33.9
touches
60
first downs
11
Expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
44.1
Actual minus expected rushing/receiving half-PPR points
-12.9
Opportunity observed through week
7
Opportunity coverage
complete

Previous season

Unavailable.

This season: advanced statistics

Snap share (%)
29.3
Time to throw (seconds)
Unavailable
Average depth of pass target (yards)
Unavailable
pass aggressiveness
Unavailable
Completion percentage above expectation
Unavailable
pass air to sticks
Unavailable
pass rating
Unavailable
rush stacked box pct
22.81
rush time to los
2.69
Rushing yards above expectation per attempt
-0.25
rush efficiency
4.01
rush pct over expected
0.3
rec avg separation
Unavailable
rec avg cushion
Unavailable
Average depth of receiving target (yards)
Unavailable
rec air share
Unavailable
Receiving yards after catch above expectation
Unavailable
rec catch pct
Unavailable
rec drops
0
rec broken tackles
0
Rushing yards before contact per attempt
2.14
Rushing yards after contact per attempt
1.95
rush broken tackles
2
pass pressured pct
Unavailable
pass bad throw pct
Unavailable
rec drop pct
0

Previous season: advanced statistics

Unavailable.

Player narrative and news

Generated narrative is context, not a verified injury forecast or a weekly recommendation. Inspect its own dates before using it.

Write-up generated: 2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00

San Francisco's backfield is the whole thesis with Black. The consensus projection hands this 24-year-old rookie 98 carries and 71.5 half-PPR points, RB59, while half-PPR drafters let him sit until pick 291, RB86, a 27-rank gap running the opposite direction from the usual late-round pattern where hype outruns the numbers. The environment strengthens the case, with Vegas putting the 49ers seventh in average implied team total at 25.4 and hanging a 29 on the Week 3 Arizona game. He has no NFL usage to inspect, and an older rookie profile means the projection is really a statement about the depth chart, where he sits third, and about how much rushing volume this offense generates. As near-free exposure to one of the league's better run environments, the asymmetry favors him over similarly priced veterans whose ceilings are already known.

Latest stored news context

{
  "digest": "Kaelon Black (illness) off injury report Sunday  — Black will remain a change-of-pace role alongside Christian McCaffrey. ",
  "latest_at": "2026-10-09T23:34:36+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-11T19:00:23.388436+00:00",
  "llm_sentiment": 0,
  "llm_injury_trajectory": 1,
  "llm_severity": 1,
  "llm_weeks_out": null,
  "llm_offfield_risk": 0,
  "llm_key_phrases": "illness off injury report; change-of-pace role; alongside christian mcaffrey",
  "llm_role_change": 0,
  "llm_usage_outlook": 0,
  "llm_team_context": 0,
  "llm_relevance": 0.9,
  "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-12T09:02:47.749806+00:00",
  "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b",
  "inference_status": "current"
}

Profile freshness: {"writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."}

Complete source evidence
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      "draft_adp": {
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  "outcome_readiness": {
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  "valuation_context": {
    "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback",
    "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend",
    "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7,
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  "value_locked": null,
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    "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.",
    "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.",
    "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.",
    "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."
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  "metric_definitions": {
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    "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.",
    "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.",
    "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.",
    "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.",
    "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.",
    "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.",
    "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.",
    "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."
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  "player": {
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    "name": "Kaelon Black",
    "team": "SF",
    "pos": "RB",
    "age": 25,
    "exp": 0,
    "injury": null,
    "rookie": true,
    "value": 0.0,
    "ros_ppg": 4.64,
    "games_left": 9,
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      "ros_ppg": 4.643555555555556,
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      "carries": 57.0,
      "rushing_yards": 233.0,
      "rushing_tds": 1.0,
      "targets": 6.0,
      "receptions": 3.0,
      "receiving_yards": 4.0,
      "receiving_tds": 0.0,
      "passing_first_downs": 0.0,
      "rushing_first_downs": 11.0,
      "receiving_first_downs": 0.0,
      "fumbles_lost": 1.0,
      "tgt_share": 2.9,
      "ppg": 4.17,
      "ypc": 4.1,
      "ypt": 0.7,
      "ypr": 1.3,
      "catch_pct": 50.0,
      "total_yd": 237.0,
      "ypg": 33.9,
      "touches": 60.0,
      "first_downs": 11.0,
      "xfp": 44.1,
      "xfp_diff": -12.9,
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    "adv_ytd": {
      "snap_pct": 29.3,
      "pass_time_to_throw": null,
      "pass_adot": null,
      "pass_aggressiveness": null,
      "pass_cpoe": null,
      "pass_air_to_sticks": null,
      "pass_rating": null,
      "rush_stacked_box_pct": 22.81,
      "rush_time_to_los": 2.69,
      "rush_ryoe_per_att": -0.25,
      "rush_efficiency": 4.01,
      "rush_pct_over_expected": 0.3,
      "rec_avg_separation": null,
      "rec_avg_cushion": null,
      "rec_adot": null,
      "rec_air_share": null,
      "rec_yac_above_exp": null,
      "rec_catch_pct": null,
      "rec_drops": 0.0,
      "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0,
      "rush_ybc_att": 2.14,
      "rush_yac_att": 1.95,
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      "pass_pressured_pct": null,
      "pass_bad_throw_pct": null,
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Use this source carefully